2015 Chase Predictions

Which Drivers Will Make the Chase in 2015?

By Richard Tix

NASCAR Behind the Wall took a stab last season at predicting who would get into the all new 2014 Chase. This year we are on year two of the new Chase Era but predicting still wont be easy. In fact, after having a zero race winner make the final race at Miami it might have become even more difficult. I had 14 of 16 last season (Tony Stewart was one that I missed on since I picked him to get in), but I still felt like I was completely off.

So lets take a stab again in 2015. I will pick out the 16 I think have the best shot at the Chase and rate there chances as IN (a lock to make the Chase), GREAT (Almost a lock, but a bad season can happen. Think Smoke in 2014. These drivers should get a win), GOOD (I'm pretty confident, but some season's they don't win so they may have to get in on points), and OK (these guys are a bit of a gamble).

I will then go into a few drivers that are underdogs to make it. These guys are drivers that may not have a shot at getting in on points, but could steal a win (like AJ Allmendinger or Aric Almirola) and get in. It could be at a Superspeedway or a Road Course, either way this new Chase opens the door to underdogs.

Who Will Make the Chase?

16 drivers now have a chance to get in, and predicting who will make it will be as tough as ever. NASCAR behind the Wall will list 16 drivers and how there chances stack up (IN, GREAT, GOOD,OK).

1. Jimmie Johnson (IN)- Just like last season, JJ is a lock to get to the Chase. Even in a year many are calling a down year, he had four wins and 20 top 10's. The real question is will he make the Finale?
2. Kevin Harvick (IN)- In 14 full-time seasons "Happy" has only come away with zero wins three times (2004, 2008, and 2009). That's five straight years with a win for the 2014 Champ.
3. Joey Logano (IN)- I think JoLo's time has come. After 5 wins in 2014 I think he is a driver on the rise and will lock himself in with an early win.
4. Brad Keselowski (IN)- I really don't see him falling back into a season like 2013. I think in 2014 he learned from those mistakes. I also don't see him winning as many races as 2014, but still enough to lock him into the 2015 Chase.
5. Jeff Gordon (GREAT)- 2015 will be his last full-time run. After 2014 it looks like he should almost be a lock to get in with at least one win.
6. Kyle Busch (GREAT)- It's hard not to see Rowdy getting at least one win and making his way into the Chase. Again I am on board the bandwagon that he can make a title run (and that's saying a lot because I am not his biggest fan). 
7. Carl Edwards (GREAT)- Its hard not to see Edwards getting a few wins in 2015 after he got two with a slow RFR team in 2014. The only issue could be is how JGR transitions from three to four cars.
8. Denny Hamlin (GREAT)- I think 2015 could be a bounce back year for Hamlin as long as JGR has no big bumps in the road with a four car team.
9. Tony Stewart (GOOD)- Speaking of bouncing back, Smoke should return close to old form in 2015, which means a win or two.
10. Matt Kenseth (GOOD)- 7 wins in 2013. Win-less in 2014. Kenseth should have a nice season in 2015. Its hard to think he goes back to back years with no wins. It might be tougher for him to get into the Chase in 2015 if he doesn't get a win though.
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr (GOOD)- May Jr take a step back in 2015? I'm not sure it will be as consistent as 2014, but he should still easily make the Chase.
12. Kyle Larson (GOOD)- I'm betting on Larson getting 1 or 2 wins this season, meaning he makes the Chase in just his second year.
13. Ryan Newman (OK)- The fact that he had no wins in 2014 makes him a guy on the border this season. I am a believer that he will find a win, but without it he may not get in on points this time.
14. Kasey Kahne (OK)- Of the guys in the OK catagory, I think Kahne could be the surprise. New contract and new life might help him out this season, but he is still a shaky bet to make it until we see that.
15. Greg Biffle (OK)- He is the lone veteran at RFR now. I think RFR getting some speed back may help Biffle out at tracks like MIS where he can win and punch a Chase ticket.
16. Clint Bowyer (OK)- Is 2015 the year Clint and MWR get back to the way it was going in 2013? I think the 2015 Camry might help him rebound finally. Its been awhile since he has gone to Victory Lane.

The top 16 seems to be a "safe bet" list. NASCAR Behind the Wall will take a better look at some underdogs who could make a splash in this years 16 car Chase field.

• AJ Allmendinger- I almost put him at #16 just because of how good he is on road courses. He will take Ambroses spot as the guy to beat when NASCAR turns right. Can he do it back to back years? One thing is for sure, people will be gunning for him.
• Kurt Busch- Dropping out from 2014 to 2015 I also think will be Kurt Busch. I think too much is going on for him to truly focus on the season.
• Austin Dillon- Dillon might make a strong push, but might come up just short. I do think he will have a better 2015 season. However, look for him at the Superspeedways, he could steal a win there.
• Jamie McMurray- Speaking of Superspeedways and stealing a win, that's exactly where McMurray could make the push into the Chase. He has shown he can win, the hard part is predicting which season he gets another. I think he could be a wild card to get in this year.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr- I do think RFR will be better in 2014 and Stenhouse might benefit. Still, I only see him getting in with a win and that's a long shot, but Superspeedways may be the key to that slim chance coming true. 

2015 Random Predictions

Who Wins First (Larson or Dillon)?

• Almost everyone is going to say Kyle Larson on this one. In 2014 he showed flashes of greatness and also finished off some quality runs. Dillon was no slouch, but just didn't run in the top 5 or top 10 near as much. In my mind I can see Larson winning acouple races in 2015.
• Edge: Larson

Which Four Car Team Has the Best Shot of All Four Drivers in the Chase?

• JGR join's this question this year (last year it was between HMS and SHR) which adds a new wrinkle. Its not too likely Danica makes the Chase, not out of the question, but when comparing to HMS and JGR its a longer shot (Maybe she pulls off a Superspeedway win?). Even in that case, above I have Kurt missing the Chase this year. So, its HMS v JGR. I think both teams could get all four drivers into the Chase in 2015. I think it hinges on Kasey Kahne for HMS and the transition to four cars at JGR.
• Edge: Slight edge to JGR

How Many Races Until Tony Stewart Gets Win 50?

• I had this question last season and we know how that played out. I do think he will have a bounce back this season so this question should be back on the table. Smoke is currently sitting at 48 wins, so 50 could come any day this year. So, lets take a shot out of a cannon again this year.
• 20, again. (That's #50 at Indy).

Will a Chase Spot be Stolen at a Road Course?

• So, will a guy that is on the bottom half of 16th in points or lower get into the Chase because of a win there (Think Ambrose/Allmendinger)? Last year I said no, that Ambrose would get shut out and to watch for AJ. But a no is a no, so I was still wrong. With more emphasis and better racing coming from these track it gets harder every year. I'm not sure if AJ can do it back to back season's but he will be a favorite. Also, watch out for Martin Truex Jr.
• Edge: No. But AJ or Truex both have a shot of proving me wrong

Of the 2014 Rookies, Who Runs the Best in 2015?

• The 2014 class was huge and in 2015 many of those guys return. Again, the top two guys will have the best shot to run well (Larson and Dillon). I think both run better in 2015, but I think Larson edges Dillon because I think he will pick up a win or two. Of the other guys, watch for Allgaier to continue to improve (unless the two cars slow everything down since adding Michael Annett).
• Edge: Kyle Larson

Who Finishes Highest at JGR?

• This is always a fun question because of the drivers and talent they have, not to mention they just added Carl Edwards. I was between Denny and Kyle last year and finally settled on Kyle, who I also picked to win his first Championship. I think Carl gets in the mix here, but I will go with Kyle Busch again. I think ultimately this style Chase plays into his hands because he is a proven winner, but not always as consistent as you should be for a full season. He can get away with a few bumps in the road now, but still not many. 
• Edge: Kyle Busch

Who Finishes Higher at Team Penkse?

• Because of how the 2014 season went, this is now a fun question in 2015. BK has won a title (2012) and notched 6 more wins off in 2014, but JoLo just had his best season yet. Both are young stars in NASCAR and will look to continue that into 2015. It's really a coin flip in my mind with these two and could come down to the last four races.
• Edge: Brad Keselowski (because the coin flip said so).

Who Finishes Highest at SHR?

• After last year most peoples first reaction is Kevin Harvick. I bring up this question because I think people are overlooking the chances of Smoke coming back strong. Kurt Busch has plenty of talent as well, but I think too much attention will wade him down this season, and Danica just isn't ready to be considered as SHR's top dog. In the end I will stick with the latest Champ, but it could be closer than people think.
• Edge: Slight Kevin Harvick

Who Finishes Highest at HMS?

• Last season three of four drivers won four races. Do I think that will happen again? No, I do not. So, who steps up and is the highest finisher in 2015? Jr will have a new CC, Jeff Gordon is on his last full-time run, JJ looks to bounce back, and Kahne looks to find what he has lost the last two years. Ill go with the easy choice and pick JJ to bounce back to the top.
• Edge: Jimmie Johnson (Following: Gordon, Jr, Kahne in that order).

Biggest Surprise Driver in 2015?

• Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Ricky Stenhouse Jr
• I think Clint will finally bounce back (its now or never), so if I have to pick one out of the three he is the guy. I only added the other two in because I believe they may have nice seasons after struggling in 2014.

Biggest Disappointment in 2015?

• Depends on how you look at it. I think Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman will go from the Finale in Miami to earlier exits in the Chase. I think Kurt Busch will miss the Chase after making it in 2014. Lastly I don't think Dale Jr will win four races (maybe 1 or 2 tops). So which of those is the biggest disappointment? I guess that's an opinion for everyone. Ill go with Jr only notching about 1 win (maybe 2) just because he has such a big fan base.
• Edge: Dale Jr with only about one win. 

Well, thats a quick preview of the 2015 Chase Predictions brought to you by NASCAR Behind the Wall. Watch for the Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2015 to see who I try and predict making the final four (key word is try). Thanks for checking NASCAR Behind the Wall out and come back all season for Race Schedules, Entry Lists, Track Previews, and Power Rankings!