Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2015

Who Will be NASCAR's Champion in 2015?

By Richard Tix

Year two of NASCAR's new Chase Points system is almost upon us. They Daytona 500 is almost close enough to smell the rubber and racing fuel, its racing season again! So, NASCAR Behind the Wall just went over who will make the Chase in 2015, but the bigger question is who will win the Championship?

Just like last season, lets start off by looking at the past 21 Champions. The 2014 Champion under the new rules, the 10 Champions under the previous Chase rules (true, the rules changed a bit over the 10 year, but not much), and the 10 Champions from the 10 years right before the Chase. Also included is the averages of those 20 previous winners to see if we can determine what creates a Champion?

So what do you think creates a Champion?

NASCAR Champions 1994-2014
Chase Era 2.0 Champions 2014
Year	Driver	WIN (%)	Top 5 (%)	Top 10 (%)	Start	Fin	Laps Lead
2014	Harvick	5 (13.9%)	14 (38.88%)	20 (55.55%)	9.1	12.9	2137
Original Chase Champions 2004-2013
2013	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.7	1985
2012	Keselowski	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	23 (63.9%)	16.2	10.1	735
2011	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	9 (25.0%)	19 (52.8%)	17.7	12	913
2010	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	17 (47.2%)	23 (63.9%)	9.4	12.2	1315
2009	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	8.2	11.1	2238
2008	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	15 (41.7%)	22 (61.1%)	8.5	10.5	1959
2007	Johnson	10 (27.8%)	20 (55.6%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.8	1290
2006	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	24 (66.7%)	10.8	9.7	854
2005	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	17 (47.2%)	25 (69.4%)	12	9.9	1845
2004	Ku Busch	3 (8.3%)	10 (27.8%)	21 (58.3%)	15	12.5	746
04-12 Avg	10 Drivers	5.9 Wins	14.6 Top 5's	22.9 Top 10's	11.74	11	1388
Pre-Chase Era 1994-2003
2003	Kenseth	1 (2.8%)	11 (30.6%)	25 (69.4%)	21.3	10.2	354
2002	Stewart	3 (8.3%)	15 (41.7%)	21 (58.3%)	13.2	12.6	745
2001	Gordon	6 (16.7%)	18 (50.0%)	24 (66.7%)	9.5	11	2320
2000	B Labonte	4 (11.8%)	19 (55.9%)	24 (70.6%)	11.6	7.4	465
1999	Jarrett	4 (11.8%)	24 (70.6%)	29 (85.3%)	13.2	6.8	1061
1998	Gordon	7 (20.6%)	18 (52.9%)	21 (61.8%)	7.4	12.9	1319
1997	Gordon	10 (31.2%)	22 (68.8%)	23 (71.9%)	9.4	9.6	1647
1996	T Labonte	2 (6.5%)	21 (67.7%)	24 (77.4%)	10.6	8.2	973
1995	Gordon	7 (22.6%)	17 (54.8%)	23 (74.2%)	5	9.5	2610
1994	Earnhardt	4 (12.9%)	20 (64.5%)	25 (80.6%)	15.3	8	1013
94-03 Avg	10 Drivers	4.8 Wins	18.5 Top 5's	23.9 Top 10's	11.65	9.62	1250.7

It's too early to pull anything from Kevin Harvick's Championship from the New Era, but we can take a look at the other two. Either way you look at it both ways seemed to have had there outlier Champions (seasons that just don't fit the mold). 

It does seem like in the Chase format drivers won a few more races, and top 10's were close to pre-chase era. One interesting thing that does stick out is that during the Pre-Chase Era from 1994-2003 drivers seemed to finish in the top 5 at a higher rate. 

I think some of that has to do with how much young talent and competitiveness started to roll in during the Mid 2000's. You can see the top 5 decline start at the end of the Pre-Chase Era with Labonte, Gordon, Stewart, and then Kenseth. Also the change in car's and making them more even may have played a part. In each year the rate declined to much closer data to today's Champions (2004-2013 it was 14.6 Top 5's per season).

After you look at the data longer and longer its easy to admit a Champion can come in many different forms no matter the points system. So, how the heck do we predict a Champion? NASCAR might be one of the hardest sports to predict just that. In some other sports you can try and look at returning talent, free agent acquisitions, draft picks, and potential breakout stars. In racing you can look at the driver, the pit crew, the Crew Chief, and maybe the engine designers and still not get as good of grasp on what will happen in an upcoming season.

So what am I saying? Well, that it's not going to get any better than an educated guess. If you want to dive deeper into stats you can try, but the success rate may get no better than pulling a name out of a hat (unless you pick Jimmie Johnson). So, lets start the educated (uneducated?) guessing.

2014 Predicting a NASCAR Champion

2015 Chase Predictions

Final Eight

Not a lot of explaining to do for the last eight, lets take down who I think it will be and move onto the last four. For the record, I had three of eight correct last season (Hamlin, Keselowski, and Kenseth) not too great.

Drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson.

Final Four

Lets start off by saying last year I got one of four drivers right (Hamlin). My predictions right before the Chase were much more accurate, but with those predictions you get a better feel on the season. That's why these predictions are such a shot our of a cannon. Again I like Kyle Busch to move on (like last year) and he would have had a shot at doing it if he moved past Talladega (NASCAR moved from 12 to 8 drivers). The fifth guy I think that could really crash the four I have is Denny Hamlin. He finished 2014 off hot so he has a shot at a good season.

Drivers: Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, and Kevin Harvick

2015 Champion

Two of the four drivers I also picked in 2014 (Kyle and JJ). It's funny because I am not a follower of either driver, but I keep having good hunches for them. It's such a hard call to pick a winner as I even flip flopped on JoLo and BK in the final four and flip flopped them from Champion to being left out. That's how close the new Chase makes it. 

Driver: Brad Keselowski

As I stated above, I at one time had Joey Logano in the final four and not BK, and JoLo was my Champion. It just shows you that picking a Champion is not easy as a handful of guys have a great shot at the end of the season and even more guys have a shot to start the 2015 season at a Championship. So, I am also going to make a short list of guys that are towards the top of my 2015 Championship hopeful's list.

Drivers: Keselowski, Johnson, Harvick, Ky Busch, Logano, Hamlin, and Edwards (in that order). 

So that's enough for 2015 predictions. If you haven't yet, check out the 2015 Chase Predictions as well. I am sure I will come up looking good on a few things and looking crazy on even more! Either way, the NASCAR season is almost upon us and predictions give us a good place to start. At the very least predictions are a good conversation starter, so who do you got?

Daytona Informational Links:

• Daytona Speedweeks Schedule
• 2015 Sprint Unlimited Entry List
• 2015 NASCAR Budweiser Duels