2015 Chase Predictions

Which Drivers Will Make the Chase in 2015?

By Richard Tix

NASCAR Behind the Wall took a stab last season at predicting who would get into the all new 2014 Chase. This year we are on year two of the new Chase Era but predicting still wont be easy. In fact, after having a zero race winner make the final race at Miami it might have become even more difficult. I had 14 of 16 last season (Tony Stewart was one that I missed on since I picked him to get in), but I still felt like I was completely off.

So lets take a stab again in 2015. I will pick out the 16 I think have the best shot at the Chase and rate there chances as IN (a lock to make the Chase), GREAT (Almost a lock, but a bad season can happen. Think Smoke in 2014. These drivers should get a win), GOOD (I'm pretty confident, but some season's they don't win so they may have to get in on points), and OK (these guys are a bit of a gamble).

I will then go into a few drivers that are underdogs to make it. These guys are drivers that may not have a shot at getting in on points, but could steal a win (like AJ Allmendinger or Aric Almirola) and get in. It could be at a Superspeedway or a Road Course, either way this new Chase opens the door to underdogs.

Who Will Make the Chase?

16 drivers now have a chance to get in, and predicting who will make it will be as tough as ever. NASCAR behind the Wall will list 16 drivers and how there chances stack up (IN, GREAT, GOOD,OK).

1. Jimmie Johnson (IN)- Just like last season, JJ is a lock to get to the Chase. Even in a year many are calling a down year, he had four wins and 20 top 10's. The real question is will he make the Finale?
2. Kevin Harvick (IN)- In 14 full-time seasons "Happy" has only come away with zero wins three times (2004, 2008, and 2009). That's five straight years with a win for the 2014 Champ.
3. Joey Logano (IN)- I think JoLo's time has come. After 5 wins in 2014 I think he is a driver on the rise and will lock himself in with an early win.
4. Brad Keselowski (IN)- I really don't see him falling back into a season like 2013. I think in 2014 he learned from those mistakes. I also don't see him winning as many races as 2014, but still enough to lock him into the 2015 Chase.
5. Jeff Gordon (GREAT)- 2015 will be his last full-time run. After 2014 it looks like he should almost be a lock to get in with at least one win.
6. Kyle Busch (GREAT)- It's hard not to see Rowdy getting at least one win and making his way into the Chase. Again I am on board the bandwagon that he can make a title run (and that's saying a lot because I am not his biggest fan). 
7. Carl Edwards (GREAT)- Its hard not to see Edwards getting a few wins in 2015 after he got two with a slow RFR team in 2014. The only issue could be is how JGR transitions from three to four cars.
8. Denny Hamlin (GREAT)- I think 2015 could be a bounce back year for Hamlin as long as JGR has no big bumps in the road with a four car team.
9. Tony Stewart (GOOD)- Speaking of bouncing back, Smoke should return close to old form in 2015, which means a win or two.
10. Matt Kenseth (GOOD)- 7 wins in 2013. Win-less in 2014. Kenseth should have a nice season in 2015. Its hard to think he goes back to back years with no wins. It might be tougher for him to get into the Chase in 2015 if he doesn't get a win though.
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr (GOOD)- May Jr take a step back in 2015? I'm not sure it will be as consistent as 2014, but he should still easily make the Chase.
12. Kyle Larson (GOOD)- I'm betting on Larson getting 1 or 2 wins this season, meaning he makes the Chase in just his second year.
13. Ryan Newman (OK)- The fact that he had no wins in 2014 makes him a guy on the border this season. I am a believer that he will find a win, but without it he may not get in on points this time.
14. Kasey Kahne (OK)- Of the guys in the OK catagory, I think Kahne could be the surprise. New contract and new life might help him out this season, but he is still a shaky bet to make it until we see that.
15. Greg Biffle (OK)- He is the lone veteran at RFR now. I think RFR getting some speed back may help Biffle out at tracks like MIS where he can win and punch a Chase ticket.
16. Clint Bowyer (OK)- Is 2015 the year Clint and MWR get back to the way it was going in 2013? I think the 2015 Camry might help him rebound finally. Its been awhile since he has gone to Victory Lane.

The top 16 seems to be a "safe bet" list. NASCAR Behind the Wall will take a better look at some underdogs who could make a splash in this years 16 car Chase field.

• AJ Allmendinger- I almost put him at #16 just because of how good he is on road courses. He will take Ambroses spot as the guy to beat when NASCAR turns right. Can he do it back to back years? One thing is for sure, people will be gunning for him.
• Kurt Busch- Dropping out from 2014 to 2015 I also think will be Kurt Busch. I think too much is going on for him to truly focus on the season.
• Austin Dillon- Dillon might make a strong push, but might come up just short. I do think he will have a better 2015 season. However, look for him at the Superspeedways, he could steal a win there.
• Jamie McMurray- Speaking of Superspeedways and stealing a win, that's exactly where McMurray could make the push into the Chase. He has shown he can win, the hard part is predicting which season he gets another. I think he could be a wild card to get in this year.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr- I do think RFR will be better in 2014 and Stenhouse might benefit. Still, I only see him getting in with a win and that's a long shot, but Superspeedways may be the key to that slim chance coming true. 

2015 Random Predictions

Who Wins First (Larson or Dillon)?

• Almost everyone is going to say Kyle Larson on this one. In 2014 he showed flashes of greatness and also finished off some quality runs. Dillon was no slouch, but just didn't run in the top 5 or top 10 near as much. In my mind I can see Larson winning acouple races in 2015.
• Edge: Larson

Which Four Car Team Has the Best Shot of All Four Drivers in the Chase?

• JGR join's this question this year (last year it was between HMS and SHR) which adds a new wrinkle. Its not too likely Danica makes the Chase, not out of the question, but when comparing to HMS and JGR its a longer shot (Maybe she pulls off a Superspeedway win?). Even in that case, above I have Kurt missing the Chase this year. So, its HMS v JGR. I think both teams could get all four drivers into the Chase in 2015. I think it hinges on Kasey Kahne for HMS and the transition to four cars at JGR.
• Edge: Slight edge to JGR

How Many Races Until Tony Stewart Gets Win 50?

• I had this question last season and we know how that played out. I do think he will have a bounce back this season so this question should be back on the table. Smoke is currently sitting at 48 wins, so 50 could come any day this year. So, lets take a shot out of a cannon again this year.
• 20, again. (That's #50 at Indy).

Will a Chase Spot be Stolen at a Road Course?

• So, will a guy that is on the bottom half of 16th in points or lower get into the Chase because of a win there (Think Ambrose/Allmendinger)? Last year I said no, that Ambrose would get shut out and to watch for AJ. But a no is a no, so I was still wrong. With more emphasis and better racing coming from these track it gets harder every year. I'm not sure if AJ can do it back to back season's but he will be a favorite. Also, watch out for Martin Truex Jr.
• Edge: No. But AJ or Truex both have a shot of proving me wrong

Of the 2014 Rookies, Who Runs the Best in 2015?

• The 2014 class was huge and in 2015 many of those guys return. Again, the top two guys will have the best shot to run well (Larson and Dillon). I think both run better in 2015, but I think Larson edges Dillon because I think he will pick up a win or two. Of the other guys, watch for Allgaier to continue to improve (unless the two cars slow everything down since adding Michael Annett).
• Edge: Kyle Larson

Who Finishes Highest at JGR?

• This is always a fun question because of the drivers and talent they have, not to mention they just added Carl Edwards. I was between Denny and Kyle last year and finally settled on Kyle, who I also picked to win his first Championship. I think Carl gets in the mix here, but I will go with Kyle Busch again. I think ultimately this style Chase plays into his hands because he is a proven winner, but not always as consistent as you should be for a full season. He can get away with a few bumps in the road now, but still not many. 
• Edge: Kyle Busch

Who Finishes Higher at Team Penkse?

• Because of how the 2014 season went, this is now a fun question in 2015. BK has won a title (2012) and notched 6 more wins off in 2014, but JoLo just had his best season yet. Both are young stars in NASCAR and will look to continue that into 2015. It's really a coin flip in my mind with these two and could come down to the last four races.
• Edge: Brad Keselowski (because the coin flip said so).

Who Finishes Highest at SHR?

• After last year most peoples first reaction is Kevin Harvick. I bring up this question because I think people are overlooking the chances of Smoke coming back strong. Kurt Busch has plenty of talent as well, but I think too much attention will wade him down this season, and Danica just isn't ready to be considered as SHR's top dog. In the end I will stick with the latest Champ, but it could be closer than people think.
• Edge: Slight Kevin Harvick

Who Finishes Highest at HMS?

• Last season three of four drivers won four races. Do I think that will happen again? No, I do not. So, who steps up and is the highest finisher in 2015? Jr will have a new CC, Jeff Gordon is on his last full-time run, JJ looks to bounce back, and Kahne looks to find what he has lost the last two years. Ill go with the easy choice and pick JJ to bounce back to the top.
• Edge: Jimmie Johnson (Following: Gordon, Jr, Kahne in that order).

Biggest Surprise Driver in 2015?

• Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Ricky Stenhouse Jr
• I think Clint will finally bounce back (its now or never), so if I have to pick one out of the three he is the guy. I only added the other two in because I believe they may have nice seasons after struggling in 2014.

Biggest Disappointment in 2015?

• Depends on how you look at it. I think Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman will go from the Finale in Miami to earlier exits in the Chase. I think Kurt Busch will miss the Chase after making it in 2014. Lastly I don't think Dale Jr will win four races (maybe 1 or 2 tops). So which of those is the biggest disappointment? I guess that's an opinion for everyone. Ill go with Jr only notching about 1 win (maybe 2) just because he has such a big fan base.
• Edge: Dale Jr with only about one win. 

Well, thats a quick preview of the 2015 Chase Predictions brought to you by NASCAR Behind the Wall. Watch for the Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2015 to see who I try and predict making the final four (key word is try). Thanks for checking NASCAR Behind the Wall out and come back all season for Race Schedules, Entry Lists, Track Previews, and Power Rankings!

NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase: Old and New

By Richard Tix

NASCAR's 2014 season is coming slowly to a close week by week. With that comes even more driver eliminations. With driver eliminations comes more fans speaking out louder (or for the first time) that they don't like this new Chase format. Is it because there driver isn't in it anymore? Is it because the Chase is truly unfair? Is it because a fan just doesn't like change? Is it a mix of reasons?

I wont be answering any of those questions, because we are all different. However, I have overheard many of people (or read tweets) about how fans think the Chase is unfair because one bad race means there driver no longer has a shot at the title. Or, eliminations take out there driver and there chances and the "old way" they would still have a chance, even after a bad race.

So, I started to look into a few of the past Champions just because I was curious, does a bad finish really take a driver out of it? Is it unfair? If a driver had a bad race before they would have 9 other races to make up for it, right?

After going back and forth on Twitter for awhile with a few fellow NASCAR fans I decided that 140 characters at a time (including twitter handles of a handful of followers) is not enough to get the stats out.

I am not here to change anyone's opinion. I already know, NASCAR fans are loyal and some of us really hate change (which is why its tough for some to keep following NASCAR's endless amount of change). But, I have been very open minded about this Chase from the very beginning (as you can read here in NASCAR's New Era). I gave it a chance, because NASCAR is in a corner where it has two totally different demographics and Target Markets. That is, its older and loyal fan base that has been around since before the boom in the 1990's and the new generation of NASCAR fans it is trying to pull in. The thing is, NASCAR needs both of these markets to thrive, and the markets are totally 180 degrees different from each other. Sure, some older fans match the market for the younger and vise versa, but in general its a tough spot for NASCAR to be in.

How do you grow the sport, while trying to keep the "golden years," "and the good ole years" group happy? I am not giving NASCAR a break, but this is no easy task. Yet, NASCAR is trying to please its fan base, it know's the sports needs us, and it know's the base has been growing concern. But, NASCAR created this Chase for us, the fans, because, well, they need us.

So on that statement, lets at least try and take an open mind into some stats I started to pull up on the old Chase and New Chase. I will not be going back to the non Chase days because I hate to break it to you, I don't see NASCAR going back to that anytime soon.

Old Chase Format (2004-2013)
Past Champion	#48	#2	#14	#48	#48	#48	#48	#48	#20	#97
Year	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4
Race #	Finish
Chase Race 1	5	1	1	25	4	2	6	39	2	1
Chase Race 2	4	6	1	1	1	5	14	13	18	5
Chase Race 3	1	1	25	2	9	1	3	14	2	5
Chase Race 4	6	7	15	3	1	9	2	24	4	6
Chase Race 5	4	11	8	3	1	6	14	2	25	4
Chase Race 6	13	8	7	5	2	1	1	1	2	5
Chase Race 7	5	6	1	7	6	2	1	2	9	42
Chase Race 8	1	2	1	9	38	15	1	2	6	10
Chase Race 9	3	6	3	5	1	1	1	2	4	6
Chase Race 10	9	15	1	2	5	15	7	9	15	5
10 Race Avg.	5.1	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.8	5.7	5	10.8	8.7	8.9
Chase Win's	2	2	5	1	4	3	4	1	0	1	2.3

When I first looked back at the stats from the old Chase format I looked at the last three Champions. I noticed only once did they finish outside the top 15 (Smoke, Race 3 in 2011). Then I noticed only 5 times in those 300 combined Chase races did they finish outside the top 10. One finish was JJ (13th), one was BK (11th) and the other BK was a 15th at Miami when he just needed to stay clean. So, the Champion finished top 10 25 times in 30 races and only once finishing outside the top 15 (which was in a season which Smoke had 5 Chase wins). So, I started there and was intrigued, what did the other Champions Chase seasons look like?

19 times in 100 races (or for you math majors, only 19% of the time) has a Champion finished outside the top 10. If that doesn't tell you how one mistake would ruin your Chase chances in the old system I am not sure what does? Fans seem to think that now it is way more unfair to Chase drivers because they think a bad finish (or bad luck during just one race) will ruin there teams chances. When really, it always ruined there chances before. Heck, if you finished just two races outside the top 20 in a 10 race Chase you could count yourself out, and that could be because of a bad luck pit stop, a wreck at Talladega (ironic after this past round isn't it), or just running out of fuel. You could have had the best season every going up until that two race point and you were done for the next 6 races no matter what you did. Now, if you have bad luck you can bank on trying to win and see a new day.

One other part to note: In almost every season (except 2005) winning in the Chase was important. Only Smoke in 2005 didn't have a win and even counting that season the 10 Championship seasons included 2.3 wins during the 10 race Chase. With that all said, lets look at this years remaining eight drivers...

Eliminator Round Drivers
Chase Driver	#22	#4	#2	#24	#11	#31	#20	#99
Race #	Finish
Chase Race 1	4	5	1	2	6	15	10	20
Chase Race 2	1	3	7	26	37	18	21	17
Chase Race 3	4	13	2	1	12	8	5	11
Chase Race 4	1	12	36	14	7	6	13	5
Chase Race 5	4	1	16	2	9	7	19	8
Chase Race 6	11	9	1	26	18	5	2	21
6 Race Avg.	4.17	7.167	10.5	11.8	14.83	9.83	11.7	13.7
Chase Win's	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	0

Let's take a quick look at how the Chase drivers that will be in the Eliminator Round are doing so far under the new Chase Format. I did not look at any driver that missed the cut from last round because they have even more finishes outside the top 15 and 20 then these guys, meaning, even in a old Chase format they would be a very, very big long shot to win (pretty much counted out already, anyways). If this were the old Chase guys like Gordon, Hamlin, Kenseth, and Edwards would be all but out of the Chase picture anyways (according to the stats above in the Old Chase Format (2013-2004)). That would mean one of the faster cars of the season (Gordon) who if we take the "olden days" approach and say "well this Chase doesn't award the best overall driver for the entire season" would be out of the running.

Well, in this format he gets a break for having bad luck in the last 10 races, even though he had one heck of a regular season.

Looking between these two tables and it sure looks like Joey Logano would be the favorite. As he should be, the #22 has been one of the fastest most consistent drivers all year. BK, and Harvick also would have a shot according to stats from the old format since they both only have the two races outside the top 10.

The thing is, the Chase gets harder the further you go on, which it should. Who wants a Championship decided 5 races before the end of the season? And if you say "but the best driver in that season at least won the Championship." Yes, but most of the guys who had the most complete and fastest season's are still in the Chase (22, 4, 24, and 2). You can make a case for the #88 team, but they fell off a bit towards the end of the season, and there is no way under any Chase format they would have still been in it with some of there Chase finishes (the only way would have been a win).

Each round it becomes even more satisfying for teams, drivers, and fans when they move on. Just check out the emotions that are displayed week to week (which is something I personally love seeing). I know NASCAR is like no other sport, and that is a great thing which sets them apart. However, I do love the drama the elimination brings to each round. I also believe it will make a Championship that much more satisfying in the end whether you are a driver, a teammate, an owner, or just a fan.

Oh, and unless JJ or Gordon can get to 7 (or 8) I think it will be much harder to touch Dale Sr and the Kings record (which some of the fans that love the nostalgia of those old record will smile about).

This in no way needs to change your mind, in fact you may look at the same stats and see a totally different view out of them. Everything in life is about perspective. But, I figured NASCAR Behind the Wall could help pull some of those stats out of the books and get you thinking about the Chase and where NASCAR is heading (or should head).