NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase: Old and New

By Richard Tix

NASCAR's 2014 season is coming slowly to a close week by week. With that comes even more driver eliminations. With driver eliminations comes more fans speaking out louder (or for the first time) that they don't like this new Chase format. Is it because there driver isn't in it anymore? Is it because the Chase is truly unfair? Is it because a fan just doesn't like change? Is it a mix of reasons?

I wont be answering any of those questions, because we are all different. However, I have overheard many of people (or read tweets) about how fans think the Chase is unfair because one bad race means there driver no longer has a shot at the title. Or, eliminations take out there driver and there chances and the "old way" they would still have a chance, even after a bad race.

So, I started to look into a few of the past Champions just because I was curious, does a bad finish really take a driver out of it? Is it unfair? If a driver had a bad race before they would have 9 other races to make up for it, right?

After going back and forth on Twitter for awhile with a few fellow NASCAR fans I decided that 140 characters at a time (including twitter handles of a handful of followers) is not enough to get the stats out.

I am not here to change anyone's opinion. I already know, NASCAR fans are loyal and some of us really hate change (which is why its tough for some to keep following NASCAR's endless amount of change). But, I have been very open minded about this Chase from the very beginning (as you can read here in NASCAR's New Era). I gave it a chance, because NASCAR is in a corner where it has two totally different demographics and Target Markets. That is, its older and loyal fan base that has been around since before the boom in the 1990's and the new generation of NASCAR fans it is trying to pull in. The thing is, NASCAR needs both of these markets to thrive, and the markets are totally 180 degrees different from each other. Sure, some older fans match the market for the younger and vise versa, but in general its a tough spot for NASCAR to be in.

How do you grow the sport, while trying to keep the "golden years," "and the good ole years" group happy? I am not giving NASCAR a break, but this is no easy task. Yet, NASCAR is trying to please its fan base, it know's the sports needs us, and it know's the base has been growing concern. But, NASCAR created this Chase for us, the fans, because, well, they need us.

So on that statement, lets at least try and take an open mind into some stats I started to pull up on the old Chase and New Chase. I will not be going back to the non Chase days because I hate to break it to you, I don't see NASCAR going back to that anytime soon.

Old Chase Format (2004-2013)
Past Champion	#48	#2	#14	#48	#48	#48	#48	#48	#20	#97
Year	13	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4
Race #	Finish
Chase Race 1	5	1	1	25	4	2	6	39	2	1
Chase Race 2	4	6	1	1	1	5	14	13	18	5
Chase Race 3	1	1	25	2	9	1	3	14	2	5
Chase Race 4	6	7	15	3	1	9	2	24	4	6
Chase Race 5	4	11	8	3	1	6	14	2	25	4
Chase Race 6	13	8	7	5	2	1	1	1	2	5
Chase Race 7	5	6	1	7	6	2	1	2	9	42
Chase Race 8	1	2	1	9	38	15	1	2	6	10
Chase Race 9	3	6	3	5	1	1	1	2	4	6
Chase Race 10	9	15	1	2	5	15	7	9	15	5
10 Race Avg.	5.1	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.8	5.7	5	10.8	8.7	8.9
Chase Win's	2	2	5	1	4	3	4	1	0	1	2.3

When I first looked back at the stats from the old Chase format I looked at the last three Champions. I noticed only once did they finish outside the top 15 (Smoke, Race 3 in 2011). Then I noticed only 5 times in those 300 combined Chase races did they finish outside the top 10. One finish was JJ (13th), one was BK (11th) and the other BK was a 15th at Miami when he just needed to stay clean. So, the Champion finished top 10 25 times in 30 races and only once finishing outside the top 15 (which was in a season which Smoke had 5 Chase wins). So, I started there and was intrigued, what did the other Champions Chase seasons look like?

19 times in 100 races (or for you math majors, only 19% of the time) has a Champion finished outside the top 10. If that doesn't tell you how one mistake would ruin your Chase chances in the old system I am not sure what does? Fans seem to think that now it is way more unfair to Chase drivers because they think a bad finish (or bad luck during just one race) will ruin there teams chances. When really, it always ruined there chances before. Heck, if you finished just two races outside the top 20 in a 10 race Chase you could count yourself out, and that could be because of a bad luck pit stop, a wreck at Talladega (ironic after this past round isn't it), or just running out of fuel. You could have had the best season every going up until that two race point and you were done for the next 6 races no matter what you did. Now, if you have bad luck you can bank on trying to win and see a new day.

One other part to note: In almost every season (except 2005) winning in the Chase was important. Only Smoke in 2005 didn't have a win and even counting that season the 10 Championship seasons included 2.3 wins during the 10 race Chase. With that all said, lets look at this years remaining eight drivers...

Eliminator Round Drivers
Chase Driver	#22	#4	#2	#24	#11	#31	#20	#99
Race #	Finish
Chase Race 1	4	5	1	2	6	15	10	20
Chase Race 2	1	3	7	26	37	18	21	17
Chase Race 3	4	13	2	1	12	8	5	11
Chase Race 4	1	12	36	14	7	6	13	5
Chase Race 5	4	1	16	2	9	7	19	8
Chase Race 6	11	9	1	26	18	5	2	21
6 Race Avg.	4.17	7.167	10.5	11.8	14.83	9.83	11.7	13.7
Chase Win's	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	0

Let's take a quick look at how the Chase drivers that will be in the Eliminator Round are doing so far under the new Chase Format. I did not look at any driver that missed the cut from last round because they have even more finishes outside the top 15 and 20 then these guys, meaning, even in a old Chase format they would be a very, very big long shot to win (pretty much counted out already, anyways). If this were the old Chase guys like Gordon, Hamlin, Kenseth, and Edwards would be all but out of the Chase picture anyways (according to the stats above in the Old Chase Format (2013-2004)). That would mean one of the faster cars of the season (Gordon) who if we take the "olden days" approach and say "well this Chase doesn't award the best overall driver for the entire season" would be out of the running.

Well, in this format he gets a break for having bad luck in the last 10 races, even though he had one heck of a regular season.

Looking between these two tables and it sure looks like Joey Logano would be the favorite. As he should be, the #22 has been one of the fastest most consistent drivers all year. BK, and Harvick also would have a shot according to stats from the old format since they both only have the two races outside the top 10.

The thing is, the Chase gets harder the further you go on, which it should. Who wants a Championship decided 5 races before the end of the season? And if you say "but the best driver in that season at least won the Championship." Yes, but most of the guys who had the most complete and fastest season's are still in the Chase (22, 4, 24, and 2). You can make a case for the #88 team, but they fell off a bit towards the end of the season, and there is no way under any Chase format they would have still been in it with some of there Chase finishes (the only way would have been a win).

Each round it becomes even more satisfying for teams, drivers, and fans when they move on. Just check out the emotions that are displayed week to week (which is something I personally love seeing). I know NASCAR is like no other sport, and that is a great thing which sets them apart. However, I do love the drama the elimination brings to each round. I also believe it will make a Championship that much more satisfying in the end whether you are a driver, a teammate, an owner, or just a fan.

Oh, and unless JJ or Gordon can get to 7 (or 8) I think it will be much harder to touch Dale Sr and the Kings record (which some of the fans that love the nostalgia of those old record will smile about).

This in no way needs to change your mind, in fact you may look at the same stats and see a totally different view out of them. Everything in life is about perspective. But, I figured NASCAR Behind the Wall could help pull some of those stats out of the books and get you thinking about the Chase and where NASCAR is heading (or should head).