NASCAR Preview of the Sprint Cup Chase Eliminator Round
By Richard Tix
NASCAR has officially gone from 16 Chase drivers just six races ago down to it's final 8 drivers with four races left in the 2014 season. So, here on NASCAR Behind the Wall we are going to look at each driver left in the Chase and how there Chase has gone so far.
#22 Joey Logano
Joey's Chase streak of top 10 finishes (rather, finishes of 1st or 4th) ended at Talladega when he helped his teammate Brad Keselowski advance by winning the Geico 500. Before that, he had 5 straight top 5's to start the 2014 Chase. Coming off a career year in 2013, Joey Logano catapulted into a Championship in two short years with Team Penske.
JoLo finished 4th earlier this season at Martinsville, which was his best finish since 2010 (2nd). The first time NASCAR stopped at Texas this year JoLo came up with his first Texas Motor Speedway win, his first win of 2014, and he has three straight top 5's at Fort Worth. JoLo also has two straight top 3 finishes at Phoenix and has started in the top 3 the previous two times as well.
So, going forward it looks like Joey could continue his impressive season another round into Miami. He may not win within the next three races, but I think his quality finishes at these tracks will carry him through either way.
Harvick left his long time ride at Richard Childress racing for an opening at Stewart Haas Racing this past season and people started to spectulate on how the move would work. Would Harvick, Stewart, and Busch be able to get along? Would Harvick struggle to transition? Or would Harvick join a new team and have new life like Matt Kesneth did in 2012? Well, two races into the 2014 season NASCAR found out that Harvick was the latter of that list when he won at Phoenix (which is also the last Chase race of this round before Miami). For how fast he has been, most would think he would have 10 wins by now, instead he has 3 (less than his 4 last year), 11 top 5's (more than his 9 last year), and 17 top 10's (less than his 21 last year).
He has two straight top 10's at Martinsville and 5 in the last 8 races. His last and only win at Martinsville came in 2011. Earlier this year at Texas he had an engine issue and finished 42ns, but before that he had finishes of 8, 13, 9, 9, 13, 20, 6, 7, and 5th. So, he hasn't been amazing, but hasn't been bad. Phoenix is a whole different story, as he has won 3 of the past 4 races held there. This season he lead a dominating 224 laps at Phoenix.
Do I think Harvick will advance onto Miami? Yes, yes I do. I think that between being so dominate at Phoenix lately and bringing in good finishes at Martinsville and Texas he should prove that he will be in the final four drivers.
#31 Ryan Newman
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The underdog all season, Newman just keeps moving on. The carziest thing, all he needs is a win in the next three races and he moves onto Miami. Now, he may not have been the fastest driver all season, but he only has 3 finishes outside the top 20 and only 10 finishes outside the top 15. On the flip side he only has 14 top 10's and 3 top 5's. As of right now, Newman actually has his best career average finish during a season (13.3) without a single win on the season. So, yes, you can do well in this Chase format without winning, its all about consistency.
As for the remaining races. Newman has a win, 7 top 5's, and 11 top 10's in 25 races at Martinsville. His last win and last top 10 came 5 races ago in 2012. Most of his quality work at this track was done earlier in his career. Newman also has a win at Texas, but that was in 2013 and only has 5 career top 10's in 22 tries. Texas might not shape up to be Newman's best track and will be the big race in his next three. Again, Newman has a win at Phoenix back in 2010, but unlike Texas, he has done well here lately. He has back to back top 10's and 3 top 10's in his last 4.
Newman's chances for Miami will most likely ride on a win, or a good Texas finish. He could find a way to run will at Martinsville and Phoenix, but Texas will be the true test for his Chase chances.
#11 Denny Hamlin
Denny's Chase results have been all over the place, but he has notched top 10's when he needed them (Kansas and Charlotte). As a whole, JGR seemed to be a step behind Hendrick and Penske coming into the Chase, yet 2 of 3 JGR drivers moved on to this round and 3 of 4 Hendrick dropped out. Some of that has to do with the new unpredictability of the Chase format, but the other half is that maybe JGR was saving something for the Chase?
The Eliminator round starts out at a great track for Denny. DH has 4 career wins at Martinsville, 9 top 5's, and 13 top 10's in his 17 career starts there. He hasn't won since 2010, but this would be a huge spot for a win. Denny Hamlin also has 2 wins at Texas in his 17 career starts (including 5 top 5's and 9 top 10's). Both wins came in 2010 and he hasn't done very well there since. The last stop is Phoenix where DH once again has a win, 8 top 5's, and 9 top 10's in 18 starts. His last two have been a struggle here, but one race was after coming back last season from his injury and this season he still wasn't sharp. Before that he had finishes of 3rd, 2nd, and 1st.
If Denny Hamlin can find some of his old magic (pre injury) he could make a major move towards Miami this round. He has the track experience so he has a chance.
#20 Matt Kenseth
Kenseth's first season with JGR started off with a bang. He had arguably one of his best seasons with 7 wins but came up short of his second NASCAR Championship. But 2014 hasn't been a walk in the park, as he has yet to win a race. How crazy would it be if Kenseth won the Championship this season without a win after coming up short last season?
Kenseth has back to back top 10's at Martinsville and hasn't finished outside the top 14 in the last 5. Texas is by far Kenseth's best track in the next three. In 24 races he has a win, 13 top 5's and 22 top 10's. 7 top 10's in his last 8 races at Texas (the 8th race was a 12th place finish) will make him a favorite to win even though he doesn't have a win in 2014. Kenseth will look to get it done before Phoenix since Phoenix is his work track of the three. In his last 7 races there he only has 1 top 10. If you extend that stat to his last 10 races he has 3 top 10's.
Kenesth will need to get off to a hot start in the first two races to take some heat off of him at Phoenix. It isn't that he can't finish well there, but rather it is his least likely of the three to pull off a win (statistically speaking).
#99 Carl Edwards
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Edwards maybe moving on with life after Roush Fenway after 2014, but he hasn't given up on the season yet. Quite remarkably he is still in the Chase picture without having an overall impressive season. He struggled round one, but in the Contender round he pulled off two huge top 10's (Kansas-5 and Charlotte-8). At this point in the season, it doesn't matter what you did earlier in the year.
Martinsville may not be what Carl want's to see first up on the schedule. In his 20 career races there he has only one top 5 and five top 10's. However, he doesn't normally finish all too bad (11 top 15's). Carl does have 3 wins at Texas, but they came in 2005 and 2008 (two). Even though the wins haven't been coming, he does have 4 top 10's in his last 7 races at Texas. Phoenix is another track like Texas for Carl. He has some good track results, but lately he has been up and down. He did win just last year there, so he will have a shot this Chase as another victory.
I am not sure if Carl will have enough (mostly because of how RFR has done this season). However, he could make a run if he could pull of a third race win at Phoenix. That will be tough while Harvick tries to go for 4 wins in 5 races there.
#24 Jeff Gordon
Jeff Gordon has a win and two second place finishes so far in 6 Chase races, yet he almost didn't make the cut for this round. But, don't let that fool you, along with the 2, 22, and 4 he has been one of the fastest and most consistent drivers of 2014. It's crazy that in a new format where anything can happen, arguably the four title favorites based on this season's results are all still in the Chase (yes, Dale and Jimmie were having good seasons, but I wouldn't say consistently as fast as these four).
Martinsville would be a huge win for Gordon. Not only would he lock his spot in at Miami, but he would win his 9th Grandfather clock (taking the lead between him and Jimmie). He has lead at least 36 laps in 16 of his last 19 races there (amazing). Texas isn't a great track for Gordon, but it isn't a bad one either. Earlier this year he finished 2nd and does have a win, 9 top 5's and 12 top 10's in his career. Phoenix has been a quality track for Gordon in his career. He has 31 career starts with 21 top 10's, 11 top 5's, and 2 wins. Earlier this season he pulled of a 5th place finish.
Gordon should once again have a good shot at advancing onto another round, Miami. He has been very good at Martinsville and Phoenix over his career which should give him a good shot at moving on.
#2 Brad Keselowski
The last guy to punch his Eliminator Round ticket with a win at Dega (technically everyone but Joey and Harvick were decided after the race was over), BK moved on in dramatic fashion (and controversial). But, we are here and BK is one of the last 8 drivers left with a chance to move onto Miami. He has had 6 wins already in 2014 and could be on his way to one of his best season's. Right now, no one will argue his Championship in 2012 is his best year, but if he pulls off his second Championship this season would be right up there.
In 9 career starts at Martinsville BK has 5 top 10's and 1 top 5. Before his run in with Kurt Busch earlier this year he has a string of 4 straight top 10 finishes there. Texas wasn't one of BK's best tracks to start his career, but in his last four races he has 3 top 10's (the other one was earlier this year-15th). Phoenix is another track that BK has yet to win at, but he has reeled off 4 top 10's in his last 5 races (the other was 11th). So, he is trending in the right direction.
BK doesn't have a win at a single track in the Eliminator round, but he has been pulling off some really good finishes in the last few years at each. With Team Penske having fast cars and the fact he has been getting better at all of these tracks he does have a shot at Miami, but will someone pay him back for Dega in the nest three races?
Well, that's it. A look at every driver with a chance to move on to the Final race at Miami. Many story lines already with more to come once the racing starts at Martinsville. This time racing starts at the most unfair of the three (Martinsville) unlike last round where it ended at the most unfair (Talladega). Lost of tempers and car banging will be on display in the first Chase race so it will be interesting to watch unfold. After Martinsville it will be a race to get a locked in spot for Miami. Some may hate this Chase, some may like it, but I would just say enjoy it because we as fans should get some good racing.
Joey's Chase streak of top 10 finishes (rather, finishes of 1st or 4th) ended at Talladega when he helped his teammate Brad Keselowski advance by winning the Geico 500. Before that, he had 5 straight top 5's to start the 2014 Chase. Coming off a career year in 2013, Joey Logano catapulted into a Championship in two short years with Team Penske.
JoLo finished 4th earlier this season at Martinsville, which was his best finish since 2010 (2nd). The first time NASCAR stopped at Texas this year JoLo came up with his first Texas Motor Speedway win, his first win of 2014, and he has three straight top 5's at Fort Worth. JoLo also has two straight top 3 finishes at Phoenix and has started in the top 3 the previous two times as well.
So, going forward it looks like Joey could continue his impressive season another round into Miami. He may not win within the next three races, but I think his quality finishes at these tracks will carry him through either way.
#4 Kevin Harvick
Harvick left his long time ride at Richard Childress racing for an opening at Stewart Haas Racing this past season and people started to spectulate on how the move would work. Would Harvick, Stewart, and Busch be able to get along? Would Harvick struggle to transition? Or would Harvick join a new team and have new life like Matt Kesneth did in 2012? Well, two races into the 2014 season NASCAR found out that Harvick was the latter of that list when he won at Phoenix (which is also the last Chase race of this round before Miami). For how fast he has been, most would think he would have 10 wins by now, instead he has 3 (less than his 4 last year), 11 top 5's (more than his 9 last year), and 17 top 10's (less than his 21 last year).
He has two straight top 10's at Martinsville and 5 in the last 8 races. His last and only win at Martinsville came in 2011. Earlier this year at Texas he had an engine issue and finished 42ns, but before that he had finishes of 8, 13, 9, 9, 13, 20, 6, 7, and 5th. So, he hasn't been amazing, but hasn't been bad. Phoenix is a whole different story, as he has won 3 of the past 4 races held there. This season he lead a dominating 224 laps at Phoenix.
Do I think Harvick will advance onto Miami? Yes, yes I do. I think that between being so dominate at Phoenix lately and bringing in good finishes at Martinsville and Texas he should prove that he will be in the final four drivers.
#31 Ryan Newman
The underdog all season, Newman just keeps moving on. The carziest thing, all he needs is a win in the next three races and he moves onto Miami. Now, he may not have been the fastest driver all season, but he only has 3 finishes outside the top 20 and only 10 finishes outside the top 15. On the flip side he only has 14 top 10's and 3 top 5's. As of right now, Newman actually has his best career average finish during a season (13.3) without a single win on the season. So, yes, you can do well in this Chase format without winning, its all about consistency.
As for the remaining races. Newman has a win, 7 top 5's, and 11 top 10's in 25 races at Martinsville. His last win and last top 10 came 5 races ago in 2012. Most of his quality work at this track was done earlier in his career. Newman also has a win at Texas, but that was in 2013 and only has 5 career top 10's in 22 tries. Texas might not shape up to be Newman's best track and will be the big race in his next three. Again, Newman has a win at Phoenix back in 2010, but unlike Texas, he has done well here lately. He has back to back top 10's and 3 top 10's in his last 4.
Newman's chances for Miami will most likely ride on a win, or a good Texas finish. He could find a way to run will at Martinsville and Phoenix, but Texas will be the true test for his Chase chances.
#11 Denny Hamlin
Denny's Chase results have been all over the place, but he has notched top 10's when he needed them (Kansas and Charlotte). As a whole, JGR seemed to be a step behind Hendrick and Penske coming into the Chase, yet 2 of 3 JGR drivers moved on to this round and 3 of 4 Hendrick dropped out. Some of that has to do with the new unpredictability of the Chase format, but the other half is that maybe JGR was saving something for the Chase?
The Eliminator round starts out at a great track for Denny. DH has 4 career wins at Martinsville, 9 top 5's, and 13 top 10's in his 17 career starts there. He hasn't won since 2010, but this would be a huge spot for a win. Denny Hamlin also has 2 wins at Texas in his 17 career starts (including 5 top 5's and 9 top 10's). Both wins came in 2010 and he hasn't done very well there since. The last stop is Phoenix where DH once again has a win, 8 top 5's, and 9 top 10's in 18 starts. His last two have been a struggle here, but one race was after coming back last season from his injury and this season he still wasn't sharp. Before that he had finishes of 3rd, 2nd, and 1st.
If Denny Hamlin can find some of his old magic (pre injury) he could make a major move towards Miami this round. He has the track experience so he has a chance.
#20 Matt Kenseth
Kenseth's first season with JGR started off with a bang. He had arguably one of his best seasons with 7 wins but came up short of his second NASCAR Championship. But 2014 hasn't been a walk in the park, as he has yet to win a race. How crazy would it be if Kenseth won the Championship this season without a win after coming up short last season?
Kenseth has back to back top 10's at Martinsville and hasn't finished outside the top 14 in the last 5. Texas is by far Kenseth's best track in the next three. In 24 races he has a win, 13 top 5's and 22 top 10's. 7 top 10's in his last 8 races at Texas (the 8th race was a 12th place finish) will make him a favorite to win even though he doesn't have a win in 2014. Kenseth will look to get it done before Phoenix since Phoenix is his work track of the three. In his last 7 races there he only has 1 top 10. If you extend that stat to his last 10 races he has 3 top 10's.
Kenesth will need to get off to a hot start in the first two races to take some heat off of him at Phoenix. It isn't that he can't finish well there, but rather it is his least likely of the three to pull off a win (statistically speaking).
#99 Carl Edwards
Edwards maybe moving on with life after Roush Fenway after 2014, but he hasn't given up on the season yet. Quite remarkably he is still in the Chase picture without having an overall impressive season. He struggled round one, but in the Contender round he pulled off two huge top 10's (Kansas-5 and Charlotte-8). At this point in the season, it doesn't matter what you did earlier in the year.
Martinsville may not be what Carl want's to see first up on the schedule. In his 20 career races there he has only one top 5 and five top 10's. However, he doesn't normally finish all too bad (11 top 15's). Carl does have 3 wins at Texas, but they came in 2005 and 2008 (two). Even though the wins haven't been coming, he does have 4 top 10's in his last 7 races at Texas. Phoenix is another track like Texas for Carl. He has some good track results, but lately he has been up and down. He did win just last year there, so he will have a shot this Chase as another victory.
I am not sure if Carl will have enough (mostly because of how RFR has done this season). However, he could make a run if he could pull of a third race win at Phoenix. That will be tough while Harvick tries to go for 4 wins in 5 races there.
#24 Jeff Gordon
Jeff Gordon has a win and two second place finishes so far in 6 Chase races, yet he almost didn't make the cut for this round. But, don't let that fool you, along with the 2, 22, and 4 he has been one of the fastest and most consistent drivers of 2014. It's crazy that in a new format where anything can happen, arguably the four title favorites based on this season's results are all still in the Chase (yes, Dale and Jimmie were having good seasons, but I wouldn't say consistently as fast as these four).
Martinsville would be a huge win for Gordon. Not only would he lock his spot in at Miami, but he would win his 9th Grandfather clock (taking the lead between him and Jimmie). He has lead at least 36 laps in 16 of his last 19 races there (amazing). Texas isn't a great track for Gordon, but it isn't a bad one either. Earlier this year he finished 2nd and does have a win, 9 top 5's and 12 top 10's in his career. Phoenix has been a quality track for Gordon in his career. He has 31 career starts with 21 top 10's, 11 top 5's, and 2 wins. Earlier this season he pulled of a 5th place finish.
Gordon should once again have a good shot at advancing onto another round, Miami. He has been very good at Martinsville and Phoenix over his career which should give him a good shot at moving on.
#2 Brad Keselowski
The last guy to punch his Eliminator Round ticket with a win at Dega (technically everyone but Joey and Harvick were decided after the race was over), BK moved on in dramatic fashion (and controversial). But, we are here and BK is one of the last 8 drivers left with a chance to move onto Miami. He has had 6 wins already in 2014 and could be on his way to one of his best season's. Right now, no one will argue his Championship in 2012 is his best year, but if he pulls off his second Championship this season would be right up there.
In 9 career starts at Martinsville BK has 5 top 10's and 1 top 5. Before his run in with Kurt Busch earlier this year he has a string of 4 straight top 10 finishes there. Texas wasn't one of BK's best tracks to start his career, but in his last four races he has 3 top 10's (the other one was earlier this year-15th). Phoenix is another track that BK has yet to win at, but he has reeled off 4 top 10's in his last 5 races (the other was 11th). So, he is trending in the right direction.
BK doesn't have a win at a single track in the Eliminator round, but he has been pulling off some really good finishes in the last few years at each. With Team Penske having fast cars and the fact he has been getting better at all of these tracks he does have a shot at Miami, but will someone pay him back for Dega in the nest three races?
Well, that's it. A look at every driver with a chance to move on to the Final race at Miami. Many story lines already with more to come once the racing starts at Martinsville. This time racing starts at the most unfair of the three (Martinsville) unlike last round where it ended at the most unfair (Talladega). Lost of tempers and car banging will be on display in the first Chase race so it will be interesting to watch unfold. After Martinsville it will be a race to get a locked in spot for Miami. Some may hate this Chase, some may like it, but I would just say enjoy it because we as fans should get some good racing.
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