2015 NASCAR Stock Watch

Which NASCAR Drivers are Trending Up, Even, or Down?

By Richard Tix

The 2015 season is fast approaching, leaving the 2014 season in the dust. So, NASCAR Behind the Wall is going to take a look at a bunch of drivers and what there stock brought as the 2014 season ended and offseason started. Did the season end on a high note (Up), are there some questions and bumps coming (Even), or were they trending down (Down)? We will also take a look at if you should buy into that trend, or will the driver reverse it in 2015. Lets get started. **Stock is being taken as of today (1/9/15). So, some offseason moves are still factored in (example, Carl Edwards moving teams to JGR).**

NASCAR Drivers Trending UP

Kevin Harvick

• This is a no brainer. Harvick was fast all season in 2014. He followed up a great regular season run with an even better 2014 Chase run which got him to the Finale in Homestead-Miami. Once in, he took his opportunity and ran with it winning at Miami and his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. 
• Should You Buy In?
• To a point. I think Kevin Harvick joining SHR and finding peace within his family helped him to a new level in 2014. Do I think he wins back-to-back Championships? No. Not because he doesn't have the talent and equipment, but because it is hard to do at the Cup level. I think other teams will start to catch up in 2015 and he will settle back in to 2-3 wins while still contending.

Jeff Gordon

• The old man just got back to getting it done in 2014. Gordon went from fans casting him off to be the next great driver to retire before the season to can he win number five? Jeff responded by having a come back season with 4 wins, 14 top 5's, and 23 top 10's.
• Should You Buy In?
• That's a tough question for Gordon. He isn't getting any younger, but in NASCAR age sometimes is a tricky thing. I do believe he will have another quality season in 2015, but he may not hit his 4 win mark from 2014. I still think he is a top 10 driver in 2015, but I am not sure the Championship hopes will be as high come end of season as they were in 2014.

Joey Logano

• 2014 was a break out year for Joey Logano. He went from a guy coming up with a good 2013 season to a Championship contender. In fact, he made the Finale in Miami and if it wasn't for a pit crew lug nut issue he might have put up more of a fight.
• Should You Buy In?
• Long term? No question about it. I think JoLo proved he will win a title at some point in his NASCAR Cup Career. Will it happen just one year after he broke out? That depends on if Team Penske keeps there edge in 2015 after a new NASCAR package comes there way yet again. Joey is another guy that I don't see making his 5 win total from 2014, but he should still notch 2-4 which isn't a huge step down.

Brad Keselowski

• Just like in 2013, BK's stock is on a huge rise going into the season. Back then he came off a Championship run ending in his first career Cup Championship. This time he is coming off a Championship run that ended just short of the Finale in Miami. He still put up a Cup leading 6 wins and 17 top 5's in 2014. 
• Should You Buy In?
• At this point whether you love him or hate him (and most people are one of the other) you have to admit that his career hasn't been a fluke. He has to be looked at as a Championship Contender most season's. Just like his Penske teammate, I think he takes a step back down in some of his stats (such as wins and top 5's) in 2015. That doesn't mean he will be out of the running for his second title, though.

Carl Edwards

• Here is the first big name on the list that didn't have much of a 2014 season. Carl did make the Chase, but past that his 2014 campaign wasn't impressive. The key here as most fans know is, Carl is heading to JGR in 2015. That has his stock rising as fans have watched Kenseth move in 2013 (JGR- 7 wins) and Kevin Harvick move in 2014 (SHR- 5 wins and Championship) and had much success. 
• Should You Buy In?
• Yes. That really should be the end of the statement, but the reality is Carl is still in his prime years and moving to a JGR team that I believe will find some of what it lost in 2014. JGR can't be any slower than RFR was in 2014, so I have to think he gets at least his 2 wins, if not more. Will he win a Championship? That's a longer stretch, but a bounce back season for Carl is something to buy into.

Kyle Larson

• Year one couldn't have gone too much better for Larson in 2014 (other than a win). His rookie year is comparable to that of Cup veteran Jeff Gordon. Could Larson be on the same kind of path that Jeff Gordon was on at 21 years of age? 
• Should You Buy In?
• Yes. I think Kyle Larson will keep his momentum rolling forward and find at least a couple wins in 2015. Will he be a title contender? I wouldn't say that, but he will be close to breaking down that wall.

AJ Allmendinger

• 2014 was AJ's comeback season at the Cup level and he proved it was worth it. Teaming up with one car small time team JTG-Daugherty Racing AJ notched his first and the teams first Career Sprint Cup win. That win catapulted him into the 2014 Chase
• Should You Buy In?
• Yes. Now, I am not saying he becomes a top 15 driver in one season. I really don't think he ever will be, but I do think he will take over for Marcus Ambrose as the favorite when NASCAR heads to road courses. So, thats what I am buying into, his road course ability and the fact that that alone gives him a shot at the Chase every year.

Ryan Newman

• In 2014 Ryan Newman joined a new team (RCR) and made the 2014 Chase without a win. Not only did he make the Chase, but he made the final four in Miami. Newman proved in year one winning is not everything and that good consistent points days can still lead you to the end and give you a shot. 
• Should You Buy In?
• No. By no I mean the points run to the Championship. It took one heck of a run for Newman to get there. His season was so consistent it just wont happen like that every single season without that driver lucking into a win (in which this conversation never happens). Sure, it will happen again, but I would think once every few years will be the norm. I think Newman can come back in 2015, get a win, and have a quality season, but I don't think it will be anything like 2014 and the magical no win run. I'm thinking a 9-13 place points finish is more like it.

NASCAR Drivers Trending EVEN

Dale Earnhardt Jr

• Jr had a great run in 2014 during Steve Letarte's final season as his Crew Chief, but that time has come to an end. With that, Jr went from the rising category to the even category. It is just the uncertainty when a JR CC change is made that gets the NASCAR world going. So, will the change help or hurt? Or wont it even matter?
• Which Way Will He Go?
• I think he will find his way right back up to the rising "up" category in 2015, but it could be a slow start. However, I don't think Jr will win as many races as he did in 2014. A lot of that came as a result of the new points system and winning the Daytona 500. It gave he and Steve the chance to gamble and try new things through the season. In 2015, if they dont win Daytona I think the #88 will scramble to win in other ways. I still think Jr gets a win or two, 10 top 5's, and 19-20 top 10's (which he has done the past three seasons), I am just not sure he will be a title favorite like last season.

Denny Hamlin

• Denny Hamlin had a rough season in 2014, so much so that if he didn't make the Finale he would have been in the "down' category. Fact is, he did make the last race in Miami even after a season that many thought would be a bounce back year after his 2013 injury.
• Which Way Will He Go?
• Up. Depending on how you look at it. I think the season as a whole he gets to the "up" category, but he may not get back to the final four. That's the new crazy NASCAR world we live in. I think JGR will have a bounce back season in performance and that should help Denny gain at least a couple wins from his one win 2014. Buy into him and JGR in 2015.

Kyle Busch

• Offseason foot surgery and a season that ended early because of bad luck at Talladega, that's a rough way to appear in the "even" group. But that's the main reason why Rowdy is here, and the fact that he had 1 win and under 10 top 5's (first time under double digits top 5's since 2009). 
• Which Way Will He Go?
• The questions around his foot are the reason's he is here, and the reason it is hard to put him in a future category. It seemed like it was a little thing, I am sure it was, but after watching Smoke struggle it makes you over think the effects of injuries. Realistically he should put up multiple wins and get more top 5 performances in 2015, so the rising "up" category seems to fit. Buy into his stock increasing.

Matt Kenseth

• All three 2014 JGR drivers make the same list. In my mind a lot of it happened because JGR just wasn't up to par in 2014. Just one year removed from joining JGR and winning a Cup best 7 races in 2013, Kenseth went win-less in 2014. Not all was lost as Kenseth stayed consistent enough to compete, but it wasn't enough.
• Which Way Will He Go?
• I think at this point in his career the only answer is up. Kenseth still has a few years that he is at the top of his game, and trending up really only means he gets a win or two. So, I don't see how that wont happen. Just like some other guys, he may get that win yet still have a worse season as he misses out on the consistency he had in 2014. JGR getting some speed back in 2015 will be the biggest issue in Keneth's way. It's easy to buy into Kenseth finding some win's again in 2015.

Austin Dillon

• In 2014 Austin Dillon had some pressure behind him. He was going into his rookie season which we all knew would match him up against fellow rookie Kyle Larson for Rookie of the Year. Dillon also had the pressure of taking over the #3 car made famous by Dale Earnhardt for RCR. I think the #3 crowd quieted down a bit, as time always seems to do (doesn't mean some still aren't happy) and he lost out on the rookie of the year honors to Larson. All in all he still had a decent rookie year.
• Which Way Will He Go?
•  Considering I look at a three year window for incoming Cup drivers, its hard for me to judge because 2015 will only be year two. I would say he may end up back in this category in 2015, but I do think his stats will improve slighly. But, just because the stats get a bit better doesn't mean your stock in the NASCAR world goes up (as other drivers stocks around you also affect how fast you can move). So, I wouldn't buy into his short term stock as it may take some time for him to fully break out.

NASCAR Drivers Trending DOWN

Tony Stewart

• 2014 brought a few firsts for Smoke. For the first time in his career he finished off a season without at least one win. Also, it was one of the first times that I at times forgot Smoke was out there on the track. I hate saying that, but most years even in bad races I was still aware of Stewart, this year I just wrote it off as a season long struggle. 2014 was hands down his worst season on the Cup level.
• Will He Bounce Back Up?
• I said last year there was nothing that would hold Tony Stewart from bouncing back in 2014 (after his leg injury in 2013). So, to be honest, I am at a loss. Just shooting from the hip, I again have to think he will bounce back in 2015. His teammate and buddy won a Sprint Cup title in the same equipment Smoke will have, so buy back into Smoke because he should trend back up.

Greg Biffle

• Biffle's season was disappointing to say the least, but so was RFR in general. So, was it him starting to slide as a driver or RFR completely? I really think he may start a career slide soon, but RFR didn't help. The fact is, Carl Edwards still found a way to win a few races in 2014 with the same RFR cars, so no excuse there.
• Will He Bounce Back Up?
• I really don't think he makes it back to the "up" category. He should have a better season than last year, but I would still only move him up to the "even" group if he doesn't stand out in 2015. So, I don't buy into the stock that he will be a true contender in 2015.

Jimmie Johnson

• He had four wins, how is he in this "down" group? Well, it was a down season for JJ, sorry JJ Nation. In the big picture he still had a great season for a Cup driver, but he finished 11th in points which might put any driver near this category. He wasn't a true contender in 2014 which he has been for his whole career.
• Will He Bounce Back Up?
• Yes. Yes. Yes. It really is a dumb question. This new Chase format will make it tough for any driver to win Championships at a rate like JJ did, so he wont ever get back to winning titles so often, but he still will be a year after year threat. This was just a weird season where he lacked consistency and a little luck. After all, he still had four wins. 100% buy back into JJ still being a contender, this might be the lowest his stock has been since he was just a rookie. 

Kasey Kahne

• I've talked about it a few times on NASCAR Behind the Wall, 2014 was a down year for Kahne. He has incurred two straight years of decline since starting with HMS three years ago. I'm not sure why, but his first year was his best and he hasn't returned to that glory with HMS. He did manage to pull off a late regular season win to get into the Chase, but didn't use that momentum during the Chase.
• Will He Bounce Back Up?
• Just Like Tony Stewart, I fall into saying yes to this question every year and last year I would say I was wrong. In 2015 I once again will say he will bounce back. I don't think he gets to his fourth place points finish like 2012, but i think he could get back to a two win level. Kahne's stock is low, buy in because it should continue to go back up. I mean, he is still with HMS and just got an extension!

Kurt Busch

• 2013, one of the best small team performances we have seen in NASCAR in awhile. 2014, completely opposite. The one thing that was constant about both of those was Kurt Busch. 2014 marked Kurt's first season with SHR and it didn't go as planned. After a slow start he finally won at Martinsville and it seemed like maybe he would use that going forward. But, Busch never really seemed to hit a stride during the season.
• Will He Bounce Back Up?
• I really don't know what to expect out of Outlaw anymore. He seems to ride a roller coaster every season, kind of like his emotions (though, those have gotten better the more mature and older he has become). I think some of his results have to do with how he handles those emotions during a given season, race, or even a lap. So, do I think he will trend up? A bit, because I think he should pick up some more top 10's in 2015 but I still think finishing 9-13th in points is in his cards.

Clint Bowyer

• The 2014 season didn't bring many moments on the track for Bowyer to put the horrors of the 2013 season behind him (Spin Gate). Maybe that was hanging in the back of his head, or maybe it was just MWR not being as fast as they needed, either way Bowyer was a disappointment in 2014.
• Will He Bounce Back Up?
• I'm pretty sure Bowyer won't be back up to being a true title contender in 2015 like he was in 2012, but that's a lot to ask. Right now I think Bowyer should be worried about making the Chase and breaking his win-less streak. That alone will bring him up a notch to "even." He is a small gain stock to buy into, but don't expect huge gains.

Well there you have it, NASCAR Behind the Wall's 2015 Stock Watch. When new season's come around it always feel's like driver stocks are on the rise, but only a few can make the big dramatic jumps like Jimmie Johnson or maybe even Tony Stewart could. Will they? Who will make the huge fall in 2015? We are getting closer to Daytona and finding out some of those answers!