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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Predicting a NASCAR Champion

Who Will be NASCAR's 2014 Champion?

NASCAR Behind the Wall's Brief Look at Past NASCAR Champions


By Richard Tix

The 2014 NASCAR Season is almost apon us as we head to Daytona. NASCAR will kick of a new Era of racing after the offseason brought plenty of new changes including a new qualifying format, new penalty system, and a whole new Chase Points System. Speedweeks have started (you can check out the speedweek schedule here for everything all the way up to the Daytona 500) and fans are getting excited. Aside from the millions of questions about how drivers will do and how will the new points system work, the big one remains....Who will be the 2014 NASCAR Champion?

Most fans will answer that question with there favorite drivers name. Now while I would love to say Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, or Clint Bowyer (among many others I follow) I try to keep it as unbiased as possible (This Blog was never meant to be a fan driver blog, but a blog where every NASCAR fan can come, read, and communicate there opinion to me through the blog or Twitter).

That being said, unless you pick Jimmie Johnson every year to win the Championship, picking a Champion before the season is a tough task that you normally end up getting wrong (once again unless you have been picking JJ, in which you look pretty darn good right now). So NASCAR Behind the Wall is going to give you a look at the past 20 NASCAR Cup Champions and there stats. 10 season's of the Chase Era and the 10 previous seasons to that. Just to help you get an idea of what a Champion is made of. So take a look!


NASCAR Champions 1994-2013
Chase Era Champions 2004-2013
Year
Driver
WIN (%)
Top 5 (%)
Top 10 (%)
Start
Fin
Laps Lead
2013
Johnson
6 (16.7%)
16 (44.4%)
24 (66.7%)
9.8
10.7
1985
2012
Keselowski
5 (13.9%)
13 (36.1%)
23 (63.9%)
16.2
10.1
735
2011
Stewart
5 (13.9%)
9 (25.0%)
19 (52.8%)
17.7
12.0
913
2010
Johnson
6 (16.7%)
17 (47.2%)
23 (63.9%)
9.4
12.2
1315
2009
Johnson
7 (19.4%)
16 (44.4%)
24 (66.7%)
8.2
11.1
2238
2008
Johnson
7 (19.4%)
15 (41.7%)
22 (61.1%)
8.5
10.5
1959
2007
Johnson
10 (27.8%)
20 (55.6%)
24 (66.7%)
9.8
10.8
1290
2006
Johnson
5 (13.9%)
13 (36.1%)
24 (66.7%)
10.8
9.7
854
2005
Stewart
5 (13.9%)
17 (47.2%)
25 (69.4%)
12.0
9.9
1845
2004
Ku Busch
3 (8.3%)
10 (27.8%)
21 (58.3%)
15.0
12.5
746
Pre-Chase Era 1994-2003
2003
Kenseth
1 (2.8%)
11 (30.6%)
25 (69.4%)
21.3
10.2
354
2002
Stewart
3 (8.3%)
15 (41.7%)
21 (58.3%)
13.2
12.6
745
2001
Gordon
6 (16.7%)
18 (50.0%)
24 (66.7%)
9.5
11.0
2320
2000
B Labonte
4 (11.8%)
19 (55.9%)
24 (70.6%)
11.6
7.4
465
1999
Jarrett
4 (11.8%)
24 (70.6%)
29 (85.3%)
13.2
6.8
1061
1998
Gordon
7 (20.6%)
18 (52.9%)
21 (61.8%)
7.4
12.9
1319
1997
Gordon
10 (31.2%)
22 (68.8%)
23 (71.9%)
9.4
9.6
1647
1996
T Labonte
2 (6.5%)
21 (67.7%)
24 (77.4%)
10.6
8.2
973
1995
Gordon
7 (22.6%)
17 (54.8%)
23 (74.2%)
5.0
9.5
2610
1994
Earnhardt
4 (12.9%)
20 (64.5%)
25 (80.6%)
15.3
8.0
1013


Now that we have that out of the way, who the heck is going to win in 2014? For the sake of not just trying to pick JJ who I think has a 60% chance of winning it, would be higher if it was the old system, I wont be picking him. I also think he can be taken down so I will be picking someone else. Sorry Jimmie fans.


Final Eight

For the final eight I will just do a quick run down. This is my preseason prediction, I will most likely take a look at this again about mid season.

Drivers: Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Brad Keselowski, and Clint Bowyer.

Final Four

I really like a three guys at JGR in 2014. I think Kyle just came off a good 2013 run, and now that the Chase is split up into three's I think he has a shot. I think Denny Hamlin will come back strong. If he does and he makes the final four watch out because he has been good at Homestead. Matt Kenseth came off a hot 2013 but I think he could slow down some in 2014.

Drivers: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart

2014 Champion

This is a toss up, I really like both JGR drivers. I think with the emphasis on winning it will either make Kyle that much better in a season or kill his season (when he lacks consistency). Denny has just been so good at Homestead that its hard to pick against him. That's the crazy thing about this set up.

Driver: Kyle Busch


Think of how crazy it would be if Hamlin and Busch were fighting for the Championship. I have Kyle edging Hamlin (gut feeling) but if both drivers truly make the Final Four it will be tough to bet against DH. After looking at these predictions it seems so tough to pick each round. I mean a guy who is still in it at Talladega could pull off the upset win and advance. So I am sure in the end these will change by mid year, and then get all messed up come Chase time!

NASCAR Behind the Wall also took a stab at some other random predictions, so if you havent check those out too! Also, let me know on Twitter what you think!


Daytona Information Links:

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1 comment:

  1. FL Colts Fan Jer. 29:11February 16, 2015

    I sure would like to see Stewart win another one before he hangs it up. Why not this tear.

    ReplyDelete