Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Week 7 Preview

Texas Motor Speedway
 
No week off! Nascar took its annual early season week off before heading to Martinsville and after Fontana it may have been needed (even though most of us loved the entertainment). Martinsville didn't quite live up to the hype after the Fontana drama but none the less we got a pretty good race. Jimmie Johnson came up with the win and took home his 8th Grandfather clock after dominating most of the day.
 
Enough about Martinsville (if you want a recap check out my Nascar Pit Road) because it is on to Texas and a few other drivers may have their say in who wins. This week it shouldn't all be about Jimmie Johnson, even though he was the last winner at Texas.  The past five races at Texas have brought us five different winners (Johnson, Biffle, Stewart, Kenseth, and Hamlin). In fact, only one current driver has more then 2 Win's at Texas Motor Speedway, Carl Edwards (3).
 
Texas Chase Race finish 2012. Johnson holds of BK
Also to note, in the past 10 Texas races the winner has started in the top 5 all but three times. Denny Hamlin did it both times in 2010 (starting 3oth and 29th) and Carl Edwards did it in 2008 starting 16th. The last four winners started 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 4th. (So watch all week who is fast during practice and who qualifies well to get an idea who has a good chance to win). So lets get into the drivers Good, Middle, Bad, and Laying Low categories. Check out last years Spring Results here.
 
 
The Good:
  • Matt Kenseth- In 21 career races at Texas Kenseth has 15 top 10's, 12 top 5's, and 2 wins. He has lead the most laps at Texas in the last 10 races (772) and also has the best average finish at 8.3. Also, in his last 7 races at Texas he has finished outside the top 5 once and in his last 13 races has only two finishes outside the top 10. Best Chance Forecast: With stats like that its hard not to say a top 5 looks likely.
  • Greg Biffle- The Biff has been good at Texas, I mean really good. Biffle has notched a top 10 9 times in his last 9 races here! That includes a win at Texas last year and 6 top 5's. Best Chance Forecast- If he qualifies in the top 10 he has a great shot at winning on Saturday night.
  • Jimmie Johnson- Well Johnson finds himself on the "Good" drivers list once again, surprised? The last winner here at Texas last fall, JJ has 14 top 10's, 9 top 5's, and 2 Win's in his career. He holds the best active starting position average (8.8) which is key because 18 of the past 24 winners have started in the top 10 (11 of the last 14). JJ also has the second highest active finish average at 9.3. Best Chance Forecast: JJ can continue his run from Martinsville right into Texas, chance at winning with a high probability of a top 5.
The Middle:
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr- Ok Jr Nation, who has 4 straight top 10's at Texas without getting a top 5? That's right its Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jr has been good at Texas in his last 4, but just cant crack the top 5. Jr will be a contender on Saturday if he can bolster a better starting position the he has averaged in his career here, 11.6 (19.75 in his last four). Best Chance Forecast: If he can get a top ten start, add into the mix that he has had a hot start to 2012, and Jr could contend for a win at Texas, if not look for another top 10.
  • Ryan Newman- In the last four Texas races who has had an average finish of 15.8 (good for 12th best among active drivers) but has not a single top 10? That is right, Ryan Newman. Newman is on the edge of Middle and Bad class for this Saturday's race, but I gave the edge to the past four races (His career avg finish at Texas is 20.3). If anything, Newman just needs this race to get back on track (Or find the track) because he has struggled with just about everything this season. Best Chance Forecast: It might be just another day in the top 15 for Newman, but he has the upside to put it together.
  • Clint Bowyer- Clint has three top 10's in the last four races at Texas including 1 top 5, but in 14 career starts has yet to win here. He still has a career finish average of 12.8 so it is hard to say he wont finish well, he just may not be a contender to win. Best Chance Forecast: Top 15. If he qualifies strong top 10.
The Bad:
  • Joey Logano- 9 career starts at Texas with an average finish of 23.6 is not something you brag about to your friends (Or Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin). JoLo has one top 5 in his 9 races at Texas and 5 24th or higher. Texas just hasn't been his track. On a side note, last race here he did qualify 6th and finish 11th so maybe JoLo will figure it out this time around.
  • Juan Pablo Montoya- Just above JoLo in average finish position? JPM with a career average of 23.5.  He does have two career top 10's in 12 starts but none since 2009. Last year he finished 34th ans 16th at Texas. JPM has been a non factor this year in pretty much every race so he needs a strong showing at Texas this week to turn it around.
  • Jamie McMurray- In the last 8 trips to Texas McMurray has managed just one top 15 finish, ONE! All but two of those 8 races were in a Earnhardt Ganassi ride. Before being with Earnhardt Ganassi he had 7 top 10's (3 with Chip Ganassi). Something just hasn't been working in his most recent ride and I don't know if that will change this Saturday.
Laying Low:
  • Martin Truex Jr- Trues has finished in the top 10 almost half of the time in his career at Texas (7 of 15 races). He is also part a select group of current drivers to have 2 career poles here (5 total drivers). He has yet to win at Texas but his last three have resulted in 13th, 6th, and 8th place finishes. A good starting spot and maybe he can break his win less streak and get his first at Texas in the same race.
  • Kurt Busch- 9th best active average finish (14.1), check. A career win at Texas Motor Speedway, check. 12 career top 10's at Texas, check. A 13th and 8th place finish with two different small car team's, check. Everyone talking about how your car was burning up on Sunday and not that you have two top 5's on the season, check. Kurt Busch is coming into this race after a horrible day at Martinsville, but that doesn't mean he can't produce a top 10 this Saturday.
  • Marcus Ambrose- This is the first of back to back long shots, but Ambrose sure has qualified pretty well here in his last four trips (15th, 7th, 12th, 7th). Last time around he was involved in a crash, but the previous 3 to that he finished in the top 20 all three times, including a 11th and 6th in 2011. Starting up front will be huge for Ambrose if he wants to break out of his season long slump at Texas Saturday.
  • David Ragan- This is a long shot, a huge dark horse, but if that's what you are looking for look no further. In 12 races he has a pole and 2 top 10's, but he is surrounded by big names when you check out his career average start position of 14.4. As mentioned before, starting position is huge at Texas considering most winners come out of the top 10 in qualifying. Only problem here, since departing from Roush his last two starts have produced a 35th and 28th place finish and both times he qualified poorly. Only look Ragan's way if he can find a way to qualify fast, otherwise this is just another Cinderella that never gets a slipper. 

Entry list for Texas Motor Speedway: Here
Want to check out some paint scheme's for Saturday? Here
Article after last years Chase Race at Texas: Here

 Some extra Tweets from me this week with some quick stats:





Need more stats? Get what you need at Racing-Reference.info
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