Week 6 Preview

Martinsville Speedway

 

I am happy to say Nascar is finally back this week. That was a long week off without the Sprint Cup but the Nascar world still had some entertainment in the media world. After learning early last week after the Fontana race that Denny Hamlin would miss at least 6 weeks (5 races) JGR had one heck of a time releasing to the media who would fill in for him. After all the confusion cleared it was settled, Mark Martin would be in the #11 at Martinsville while Brian Vickers drives the Aarons 55, and then they will swap back for the remainder of the time Hamlin is out (meaning Vickers will be in the #11 starting at Texas).

 

I'm sure everyone in the Nascar media was looking forward to some down time in the long Nascar season but the JGR mix up kept them on their toes. This week Nascar heads to Martinsville where drivers always need to be on their "toes," or in other words very alert. Martinsville has been as exciting, if not more exciting, as Bristol in the past few seasons so with all the driver drama in the early season this Spring race should be another good one.

 

The past four races at Martinsville has resulted in four Chevrolet car wins and four different drivers. Last year Ryan Newman picked up his first win of the season in the Spring and would end up being his only win. In the Fall, which is a Chase race, Jimmie Johnson got another win to put him in good position down the stretch of the Chase.  In 2011 Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart both notched wins at Martinsville.

 

Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson had won 9 straight races prior to the past four just mentioned (Johnson 5, Hamlin 4) which is an astonishing run.  Also on a run, but this one of the not so good category, a Ford car has not won since 2002, even a Dodge won in 2004 and they no longer are in Nascar.

 

The past four winners (Newman, Johnson, Harvick, Stewart) were all also in the top 10 in points coming into Martinsville.

 

Lots of stats to take in this week, which as always you can take them as you please. Here is a look at last years Spring Race Results.

 

The Good:

• Jeff Gordon- Gordon has 7 career wins at Martinsville Speedway which isn't too shabby. His average finish in the past four Martinsville races is 7.25 and his career is 7.08, also not too shabby. Add that all up and the fact that he has lead 507 of the past 2015 laps (Most in the past four) and I would say Gordon is a safe bet to bounce back at Martinsville. Best Chance Forecast: I would say Gordon is a lock in the top 5 if he stays out of trouble. The past four race history says he wont be the winner though (not in the top 10 in points) but history can change.
• Jimmie Johnson- Johnson also has 7 career wins at Martinsville, but the difference between him and Gordon, he has won 6 of the past 15 races here. JJ has also lead 431/2015 laps. If you are counting, Gordon and JJ have lead almost 50% of the past four races at Martinsville (1001/2015). Best Chance Forecast: Could JJ be the first repeat winner of 2013? With how dominant he has been here, and the fact that the "history" is in his favor (He is in the top 10 right now) I would say he has a great chance this weekend.
• Ryan Newman- Newman was the last winner at Martinsville in the Spring race (Last winner overall was JJ). Newman holds a career average finish of 13.59 and in the last four he has averaged 10.50. Newman is in need of a good finish so you can bet if the race comes down to it he will push for a top spot. Best Chance Forecast: Newman has a good track record here, I would say he will notch a top 10 this Sunday
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- Jr has to be one of the best active drivers at Martinsville that has never won here. He holds a 8.25 average finish in the last four races here (13.59 Career). In 26 career races he has 14 top 10's and 10 top 5's. Best Chance Forecast: Jr has had a hot start to 2013 but I'm not sure he gets his first win at Martinsville and the season this Sunday. I think Jr can get a top 10 though.

The Middle Class:

• Brad Keselowski- This is the kind of track that BK can strive at, yet he doesn't have a top 5 in his last four races at Martinsville. Last season he finished 9th and then during the Chase he finished 6th.  After his first bad finish of the season how will BK handle Martinsville? Best Chance Forecast: Top 15 for BK this week, but I think he has the best upside out of any guy in the middle class, could surprise with a top 5.
• Clint Bowyer- Last year Bowyer notched a top 10 and a top 5 in the two races at Martinsville. In the last four here he has 4 top 20's, 3 top 10's, and 1 top 5. That is very good but at the same time very average. He has been consistent and sitting just outside the top 12 that is what he needs. Best Chance Forcast: look for another top 15 for Bowyer.

The Bad:

• Kasey Kahne- Kahne is one of the hottest drivers right now heading to Martinsville but in his last four here he has finished 38th, 3rd, 39th, and 25th. Granted he did get a top 5 during the Chase last year, Kahne hasn't had much luck past that. It could just be bad luck and with all the momentum he has heading into this week he may have enough luck to get him through it.
• Paul Menard- Menard would surprisingly be in the Chase if the season ended today.  That being said, in his last four his best finish was 12th. (Last four look like this: 26, 12, 38, 24). What I said for Kahne goes for Menard, maybe his early season luck will help him out here this Sunday.
• Marcus Ambrose- Unlike Kahne and Menard, Ambrose is not going into Sunday on a hot streak. Like Kahne and Menard, Ambrose has not fared well here. In his last four he has finishes of 15th, 24th, 29th, and 29th. That is not the kind of finish Ambrose can afford if he wants to get back on track this season.

Laying Low:

• Aric Almirola- Not a long history to go off of, Almirola has always finished in the top 10. Ok, ok, he only has two starts at Martinsville, but he has had a good start to 2013 and he has a 4th and 8th place finish here under his belt. Aric knows how to stay up front here, he could find a way again this Sunday.
• AJ Allmendinger- Dinger has finished in the top 15 three of the past four races at Martinsville. Last Spring he finished 2nd and had a chance on a late restart to battle Newman for the win. If he is in a car this weekend look for him to make some noise.
• Brian Vickers- He is a long shot here. He hasn't had the best track record at Martinsville, in fact one race he was a part of just about every caution, but he did fair well at Bristol while in the #55. However he did finish 8th last time Nascar was at Martinsville, his only top 10 in the past four races here.