Which Drivers Will Make the Playoff in 2018?
By Richard Tix
LET'S GO! The Clash is this weekend and the Daytona 500 is just around the corner. So, what does that mean for Behind the Wall? It means it is time to get out some playoff predictions and who I think will make it into the 2018 playoffs. Will I get these all correct? Most likely not... I have yet to get it 100% correct and last season was my worst year thanks to guys like Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Ryan Newman, and Ryan Blaney notching wins that many of us didn't see coming (even as a Blaney fan).
Below my playoff predictions I also posted a few random predictions for the season as well.
Who Will Make the 2018 Playoff?
16 drivers now have a chance to get in, and predicting who will make it will be as tough as ever. I'm listing 16 drivers I think will get in and how confident I am with them which includes: (LOCKED, GREAT, GOOD, OK)
- Kyle Busch (LOCKED) - No question Rowdy is already in the playoffs. With veterans stepping away he and a few others are becoming the face of NASCAR.
- Martin Truex Jr (LOCKED) - The 2017 Champion should continue his roll in 2018 and have no worries about making the playoffs.
- Kyle Larson (LOCKED) - Larson might be on the verge of a career year in 2018 after a great 2017 that ended in disappointment.
- Kevin Harvick (LOCKED) - "Happy" should once again be a title contender in 2018.
- Brad Keselowski (LOCKED) - I don't think the playoffs is a worry for BK, but unless his Ford vs the others is just a smoke screen, he may struggle some to be a front runner week to week.
- Denny Hamlin (LOCKED) - Hamlin is pretty much locked in for 2-3 wins, 12-15 top fives, and 18-22 top tens.
- Jimmie Johnson (LOCKED) - It may have looked like he lost a step last year, but JJ is the lone vet left at HMS and should show the young kids how to make the playoffs with ease.
- Chase Elliott (LOCKED) - Once he gets his first win the wins will start rolling. With vets like Gordon, Stewart, Biffle, Edwards, Earnhardt Jr, and Kenseth all gone, someone will step in and start winning a bunch of races. My guess, its Elliott and Larson until the guys like Jones, Byron, and Blaney get fully groomed in.
- Joey Logano (LOCKED) - JoLo should bounce back in 2018. He should get back to 1-3 wins, 12-14 top fives, and 18-20 top tens while being way more consistent.
- Kurt Busch (GREAT) - Kurts prime years have passed, but the vet continues to get it done. With so many young guns around, Kurt should make the playoffs.
- Erik Jones (GOOD) - Jones is where it gets shaky. The only thing separating guys above him is they all have proven they can be consistent. Jones and the below guys can be fast, but will they be consistent enough? I think Jones gets in to the playoffs for the first time this season.
- Ryan Blaney (OK) - Blaney was fast last season, but lacked consistency. In the playoffs the No. 21 team started pulling it together though. Now he moves to the No. 12 third Penske car, will Penske continue to thrive with three cars again?
- Clint Bowyer (OK) - Bowyer missed out on the playoffs last year, but I think he could point his way in this season.
- Alex Bowman (OK) - Bowman showed flashes in 2016 when he filled in for Junior. I think with a full season in a HMS car he will have a nice shot to make the playoffs.
- William Byron (OK) - It's never easy for a rookie to jump to Cup and make the playoffs. However, Byron has hurdled every challenge thus far so he has a shot to do it again.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr (OK) - The 16th spot is tough. Ricky has shown he is a pro at superspeedways and now Junior is gone. He also has shown some real speed at some short tracks. However, to get in he will have to continue that because RFR hasn't shown enough on 1.5's to compete there.
The top 16 seems to be a "safe bet" list. Behind the Wall will take a look at some underdogs who could make a splash in this years 16 car Chase field.
- Kasey Kahne - Out of everyone left out, I have the most confidence in Kahne crashing the playoff party. My biggest concern is that a fresh start isn't what he needed and LFR won't be able to bring good enough cars week to week.
- Austin Dillon - AD made it into the playoffs last year, but I really thought he was going to make a bigger jump from 2016 to 2017. It was a sole win that helped get him in, can he become more consistent in 2018?
- Paul Menard - Menard left RCR and gets new life with Wood Brothers. He should put up some consistent numbers, but I am not sure it will be enough to point his way in. But, maybe it will since the series has had a huge youth movement later which means some inconsistent young guns.
- Jamie McMurray - Is this the year he finally comes up short of pointing his way in?
2018 Random Predictions
Who Win's the 2018 Rookie of the Year Award?
- This year isn't as fun as recent years, but it could still be a fun battle between Bubba Wallace and William Byron. Both get the new Camaro in 2018, but Byron has HMS backing and Wallace gets RPM (who is switching manufacturer's). Ill take Byron this season as ROTY.
Biggest Surprise in 2018?
- I guess Chase Elliott winning multiple races... I mean, that shouldn't really be a surprise to most, but then again maybe it is since he has been picking up "haters" because of his rabid fan base. Once he wins, they should poor in especially with so many veterans leaving the sport. I also think Kyle Larson matches and might end up with more wins then he did in 2017 (4).
Biggest Disappointment in 2018?
- To be honest, with so much uncertainty and new blood entering the Cup level, I don't see a ton of "disappointments" in 2018. The rookie class typically brings a lot of inconsistent finishes meaning most veterans should be able to rattle off some quality finishes week to week. That said, I will settle on Jamie McMurray not making the playoffs after pointing his way in the last two seasons.
Who is the next young gun to visit Victory Lane for the first time?
- The young gun list includes Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Darrell Wallace Jr, and Ty Dillon. So, who wins first? The easy answer and the one I am going with is Chase Elliott. In fact, I am taking Chase for multiple wins before the next young gun gets their first. However, many of these guys will have a shot at some point in 2018 and I would see one or two not named Chase possibly winning one.
A Young Gun Win's Pocono
- Pocono has been quite the wild card races lately (Buescher's rain win and Blaneys first career win). On top of that, last year rookies Erik Jones and Danial Suarez ran very well in both Pocono stops. To add more, Kyle Larson has come close to winning at Pocono but just couldn't finish it off. Wait, even more? Chase Elliot has three top tens in his four races here. So, I think a guy from the group of Elliott, Jones, Larson, or Suarez wins at least one of the Pocono stops in 2018.
The Roval is a big success
- NASCAR will introduce the Charlotte Roval this season in the playoffs. Now, I wanted a true road course with more elevation changes to be introduced to the playoffs, but I am willing to give this a shot. Charlotte, even with all its tradition, needed a change and NASCAR went big on it's gamble. I think with the unpredictability of the first race on the roval, it will be a hit with the fans in year one. I, for one, am excited to see it play out.
