2017 NASCAR Week 5: Auto Club

Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway

By Richard Tix

Is this the week that one of the Young Gun's of NASCAR finally gets it done? Last week Ryan Newman and the No. 31 team made a bold call to stay out late in the race and it paid off when the field was shaken up behind them. That call snapped a long win-less streak for Ryan Newman and RCR.

Now NASCAR stay's West one last week with it's final stop of the tour at Auto Club Speedway (Fontana). 2017 has brought an early season shake up by watching the Fords start out hot and two young kids trying to go toe to toe with them.

Those two drivers are Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott and both have had great starts to the newest season. Larson has three straight second place finishes and was running second in the Daytona 500 before running out of fuel on the last lap. Larson is also the current points leader, has scored a stage point in every single stage so far this year, and on the season has averaged a running position of 5.25. So, it's safe to say he has had a phenomenal start to 2017.

Elliott has been no slouch himself. Chase actually has a better average running position then Larson so far this year at 5th, which is crazy to think. Chase's only issue has been finishing the race off strong when other teams are switching up strategies. Yet, he sits 3rd in the standings as we head into a track that he ran well at as a rookie in 2016.

Last year Chase finished 6th sixth at Fontana which at the time was his highest finish of 2016. Larson has a second place finish in 2014, but in the nest two season's he ran into some tough luck. However, both drivers should run well at Fontana considering the track seems to fit both of them as drivers.

So, it's pretty easy to imagine just one week after Ryan Newman pulled off a shocker, to see one of these young guns finally win in 2017 (Larson's second career win or Elliott's first career win). That's not even mentioning Ryan Blaney who has been fast all year and could also be in the mix late in the race.

I think the story of the early season has really been how these young kids have been bringing it and been fast week to week. So, the storyline this weekend will be can one of them pull off a trip to Victory Lane?

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Jimmie Johnson- Six career wins here at Auto Club for JJ and he got back on the map last year with his second win of 2016 here on his way to his 7th Cup Championship.
• Kyle Busch- Before last years rough finish (25th), Rowdy had two straight wins at Auto Club in races he participated in -- missed 2015 with his injury.
• Kevin Harvick- In his last eight races here he has a win, five top fives (including three second place finishes), and six top ten's.

The Middle

• Matt Kenseth- Kenseh hasn't won here since 2009. In the nine races after that 2009 win he has an average finish of 14.55 with only four top tens.

The Bad

• Aric Almirola- Nine career races withouth a single top ten. Aric only has two top 15's and two top 20's in his career as well which is where the real struggle is.
• Martin Turex Jr- Only nine top 20's in Martins 16 career starts here at Auto Club. In the No. 78 he also only has one top 10 -- three races -- which is more telling of his struggles here.
• Trevor Bayne- Last year Bayne qualified well here -- 7th -- but failed to finish as well -- 20th. However, last years 20th was his best finish in three tries, which isn't a good thing. 

About the Track: Auto Club

Track Stats

• Manufacturer wins here go Chevy 13, Ford 11, Toyota 2, and Dodge 1
• Until 2014 Jimmie Johnson was the only driver to win two times in a row here (2009 and 2010). Kyle Busch won back to back in 2014 and 2013
• Only Jimmie Johnson has won from the Pole: 2008 (26 total races)
• Most career wins here: Jimmie Johnson 6, Jeff Gordon 3, and Matt Kenseth 3
• Most Poles: Kurt Busch with 4
• Ken Schrader ran 17 races here without a top 10. Highest finish was 14th, twice.
• Johnson has the most career top 5's at Auto Club: 13
• Johnson has the most career top 10's with 16

Track Info

• Surface - Asphalt
• Length - 2 miles
• Banking
• Turns- 14 degrees
• Frontstretch- 11 degrees
• Backstretch- 3 degrees

2017 March Madness NASCAR Style: Round of 32

Behind the Wall Opening Round of 32

By Richard Tix

Can you believe it, it's year five of this silly NASCAR style March Madness bracket? It all started with my love of NASCAR and college basketball and the fact that March -- Spring -- is a wonderful time in sports. The NASCAR season is kicking off and college basketball gives us one of the best weekends in sports, hands down I won't even debate this. The opening weekend of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is one of the best times of the year bringing exciting basketball and the unpredictability to us all on a national level so its always fun to bring that into the NASCAR world. So, check out the rules and how it was all broken down below. Then check out the bracket for the 2017 Tournament and lastly you can look back at the past champions of this Behind the Wall tournament.

Rules and Bracket Breakdown

• Brackets were decided by current standings after the race at Las Vegas. Four Divisions, top 4 in the standings got the #1 seeds, 5-8 in the standings got the #2 seeds, 9-12 #3 seeds and so on. We are going by regular points standings (meaning a win doesn't put you ahead of someone without a win). Straight points.
• From the standings the rankings were given out serpentine style. Meaning: The driver ranked 5th (first #2 seed) started in the lowest #1 seed's bracket. That continues until the three seeds where it then goes from top back down.
• Here is how the rounds break down by race.

• Phoenix: Round 32 
• Auto Club: Sweet 16
• Martinsville: Elite 8
• Texas: Final Four
• Bristol: Championship
• This year the winner will be decided by which driver ends the race with the most points under the current NASCAR points system. So, stage points will count towards the finish of head to head matchups.

2017: 5th Annual NBTW NASCAR March Madness
Full RCR Division			Loaded Division
1	Brad Keselowski		1	Kyle Larson
8	Chris Buescher		8	David Ragan
4	Paul Menard		4	Denny Hamlin
5	Ryan Newman		5	Jimmie Johnson
3	Kasey Kahne		3	Jamie McMurray
6	Austin Dillon		6	Ty Dillon
2	Kevin Harvick		2	Kurt Busch
7	Cole Whitt		7	Dale Earnhardt Jr
Double Jr. Division			Young Guns Division
1	Martin Truex Jr		1	Chase Elliott
8	Ricky Stenhouse Jr		8	Danica Patrick
4	Matt Kenseth		4	Aric Almirola
5	Erik Jones		5	Kyle Busch
3	Clint Bowyer		3	Trevor Bayne
6	Michael McDowell		6	Matt DiBenedetto
2	Joey Logano		2	Ryan Blaney
7	Daniel Suarez		7	Landon Cassill

Bracket Notes:

First thought when I looked at the bracket after seeding the drivers was, "Wow Kyle Larson's division is tough." Hamlin, Johnson, Ku Busch, Junior, and a red hot McMurray all in one division. Next I looked at who had favorable match-ups to get to the Elite Eight. Keselowski and Harvick are easy favorites in their bracket as are Logano and Truex in their's. The other two rae a bit more of a toss up with a mix of guys who have all either started strong or are typically strong and are off to slow starts.

So, who is your favorite to win? Team Penske has actually won this bracket challenge three of the four years that I have done it, which is crazy. Keselowski is a two time Champion. The leader for Final Four appearances is a tie at two: Keselowski, Edwards, Logano, Ky Busch, and Ku Busch.

Previous NASCAR Behind the Wall March Madness Champions

• 2016 Champion: Joey Logano
• 2nd: Kyle Busch
• Final Four: Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Joey Logano

• 2015 Champion: Brad Keselowski
• 2nd: Joey Logano
• Final Four: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Aric Almirola
• 2014 Champion: Tony Stewart
• 2nd: Carl Edwards
• Final Four: Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Brian Vickers, Carl Edwards, and Tony Stewart
• 2013 Champion: Brad Keselowski
• 2nd: Kasey Kahne
• Final Four: Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch, and Kurt Busch

2017 NASCAR Week 3: Las Vegas

Kobalt 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

By Richard Tix

Well hey would you look at that, it's NASCAR heading back West after a fun start to the 2017 season. Coincidentally rumors started swirling before Atlanta that Las Vegas might be getting a second date on the schedule soon. I'm not sure how I feel about a second date when I would like seeing places like Iowa Speedway and maybe a road course added, but I have always said NASCAR could move the Vegas race to later in the year to switch up the playoff schedule every few years. Really, if I were to choose a West Coast oval to get a second date it would be Auto Club Speedway, but the choice isn't up to me.

Anyways, enough talk about the make up of the schedule, when the time comes that can be talked about more. Lets get into the facts about the West Coast swing and which teams will come out winners before we come back to the south.

So far two Ford's have graced Victory Lane in two races -- both from different teams. Not only that but Fords make up six spots in the top ten in points early in the season. It's too early to make any conclusions, but the West Coast swing will be a big one for Chevy and Toyota as they try and gain back some lost ground. It won't be easy since Ford has won four of the last nine races here at Vegas and Kevin Harvick (now Ford) has had a strangle hold on Phoenix. Spotlight might be on Auto Club for a non Ford to make some noise.

So, my biggest storyline of the West Coast swing will be can guys like Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin bounce back? Or will Ford's continue to pave the way with Harvick, Ku. Busch, Keselowski, and Logano gaining more points to separate an early lead from the others?

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Brad Keselowski- BK won last years LVMS Wind 500 brought to you by The Wind.. In all seriousness BK now has two wins in his last three Vegas races. He also has four straight top ten's and a pole to add to those stats.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- Junior has six straight top ten finishes at LVMS and eight in his last nine starts here. The only thing missing is a win for the No. 88.
• Jimmie Johnson- Speaking of wins, JJ has four of them at Las Vegas. The last time he won here was 2011 but he does have four top tens (all four 6th or better) in six races since that last win.

The Middle

• Paul Menard- In the last seven races here Menard has six top 15's (the other was a 17th place finish in 2010) and three top ten's. He is often overlooked -- sometimes for good reason -- but at LVMS he is someone to keep an eye on for a strong run.

The Bad

• Aric Almirola- Eight career starts, zero top 15's, one top 20, and only four top 25's. A guy like Aric really should have a few more top 20's at a track if he wants to avoid the "Bad" list.
• Kurt Busch- "Home track." NASCAR really doesn't have any "home" track's or home track advantage, but it is always brought up when speaking about the Busch Brothers here in Vegas. Kurt only has four top ten's in 15 starts at his "home" track.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr- It's only four career starts and last year went better (12th), but Ricky hasn't shown a ton of promise here yet with finishes of 18th, 27th, and 29th to go along with his career best 12th last year.

About the Track: Las Vegas

Track Stats

• In the last eight races we've have had 7 different winners (Keselowski twice). 
• In the last nine races Ford has won four, Chevy three, and Toyota two. 
• Ford has 9 total wins at Vegas. Leading Chevy (7), Toyota (2), and Dodge (1)
• Jimmie Johnson has the most track wins here with 4 (3 straight from 2005-07)
• Only one driver has won from the Pole in 18 races. Kyle Busch in 2009
• 19 total Cup races have been run at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
• Dale Jarrett won the inaugural Pole. Mark Martin Won the inaugural race.
• Jimmie Johnson (4), Matt Kenseth (3), Jeff Burton (2), Brad Keselowski (2), and Carl Edwards (2) are the only drivers to have multiple wins at LVMS. That's 13 wins of 19 races from only five drivers.

Track Info

• Surface - Asphalt
• Length - 1.5 miles
• Banking
• Turns- 12-20 degrees

2017 NASCAR Schedule: Las Vegas

Kobalt 400

By Richard Tix

All Times are Eastern Time Zone (ET)

Friday March 10, 2017

• 2-3:25 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice, FS1
• 4-4:55 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series practice, FS1
• 6-6:55 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series final practice, FS2
• 7:45 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Coors Light Pole Qualifying, FS2

Saturday March 11, 2017

• 12-12:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice, FS1
• 1:05 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series Coors Light Pole Qualifying, FS1
• 2:30-3:20 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice, FS1
• 4 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series Boyd Gaming 300 (200 laps, 300 miles), FS1

Sunday March 12, 2017

• 3:30 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Kobalt 400 (267 laps, 400.5 miles), FOX

2017 NASCAR Stage Rules: Stage One

By Richard Tix

This season NASCAR decided to shake it up a bit an introduced "stages" to the weekly NASCAR race. Once again, us fans will have to adjust to another point's change in racing and have to decide if we like it or hate it -- or maybe we fall in between. So, Behind the Wall has decided to do a three part piece -- get it, because NASCAR has three stages? Yeah, I know I'm not very funny. These will 100% be opinion pieces so you may feel different at the end of the day. First up is initial judgment after Daytona, then we will take a look after the intermediates (AMS and LVMS), and finally after we get a shorter track in (PIR). At that point we should have an understanding how this stuff will work out.

Stage One:

Lets set the stage -- get it? Alright maybe I should leave the comedy act alone for awhile.... Anyways let's get on with the facts. Before the season NASCAR once again announced upcoming changes to the point structure for the new 2017 season. The change all revolved around these things called "stages." The press announcement was a bit awkward when Brian France handed it over to Steve O'Donnell almost immediately after he spoke into the mic and then it turned to confusion when Steve started "explaining" the changes.

Everything seemed to be laid out very quick leaving most fans asking, "what did he mean by -- ." Everything was explained using new terminology that has not previously been a part of NASCAR and that most fans were a bit taken back by and instead of dumbing it down, NASCAR just went on like everyone would get it without needing more explanation.

I understood most of what happened initially even with it coming fast an furious, but I couldn't even really grasp it fully until I did some reading up on the topic. So, NASCAR wasn't onto a great start and was even further behind because we all know how much this fan base loves change...

Basically, the races will be broken down into stages. Each race will have three stages and they will end around the same time at each track -- 25% of the race, 25% of the race, and 50% of the race makes up most segments/stages. At the end of stage one and two the top ten get points -- 10 for first, 9 for second, and so on. Those points go into the regular season points but will not carry into the Playoff. The big part in these changes is each segment winner gets one point for winning stages one and two and five points for winning the race (last stage). Those stage winning bonus points will carry into the Playoffs and follow the driver into each round until Miami where the last four are head to head and points go out the window.

What this all means? Well, winning stages will mean that your regular season success and consistency will mean more in the big picture because it will really help the best drivers all season long advance in the Playoff's.

My initial reaction when the changes were announced was shock, as would most anyone's because it was a big change. Off the bat I was open minded and willing to give it a shot which is how I handle many changes in NASCAR -- I mean, what would my outrage really change? Nothing. So, I headed into Daytona with an open mind about the new structure.

Daytona came with a bang, boom, and crash, literally. The Daytona 500 was littered with wrecks and many fans quickly blamed the new stages on social media. It was the easy thing to do for fans, but what they were looking past were a couple key takeaways.

First, it's Daytona... Plate racing has long now been a crap shoot. No one knows when or how a wreck will happen but it always does. This year we had a ton of run in's and a bunch the field was taken out. Heck, 35 of the 40 cars by race end were involved in a wreck! The 2017 Daytona 500 winner was one of those drivers involved in an incident and his winning Ford that is now sitting in the Hall of Fame has battle scares to prove it.

Second, almost none of these wreck's in the Cup race happened in the first two stages -- especially the closing of those said stages. We were pretty clean most of the day when one would expect stages to cause accidents -- meaning if stages caused them they should have come in the closing laps of the stage when guys were getting antsy.

In fact, most of the wreck's last Sunday can be attributed to common mistakes that happen every single year at plate racing. Guys pushing guys too hard, guys making moves they shouldn't, tires blowing out, and just aggressive racing by a few were the main factors in the carnage, not stages.

So, my initial thought on stages after Daytona is that plate tracks are a terrible place to judge this format and they always will. When you have a gimmicky style of racing (plate racing) that always leads to a crap shoot it will give you weird results. Within those results it leads you to almost no answer on if these stages will work or not. I can't sit here and tell you they won't work out and I also can't tell you they will even though I am in favor of them so far, its inconclusive after such an unpredictable style of racing.

Obviously, one race is never make or break when it comes to a change but many out there in the social media world have already given up on this new idea and to me that's plain crazy. We haven't even seen it played out like it's intended to be played out.

So, this is only stage one. Next up we get Atlanta and Las Vegas, two 1.5 mile tracks which dominate the NASCAR schedule to help us better mold an opinion. These two tracks will give fans a more basic and honest answer to how stages will work in 2017. The final stage will be after Phoenix where we get to judge it on a short track.

For now, the jury is still out on the new points format but I think we should all be giving it a chance since no one, including NASCAR, really know's how well or how poor it may work out in the long haul.

2017 Daytona 500 Starting Order

Can-Am Duel Results and Daytona 500 Starting Order

By Richard Tix

With the big race around the corner, here is a look at how the Can-Am Duels played out and what the starting lineup for the 2017 Daytona 500 will look like. 

Daytona Weekend Articles

• Preseason Power Rankings
• Daytona Race Preview
• Speedweek Schedule
• 2017 NASCAR Driver List and Changes
• 2017 NASCAR Paint Schemes

2017 Daytona 500 Starting Order

1. Chase Elliott- Hendrick Motorsports

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Hendrick Motorsports

3. Jamie McMurray- Chip Ganassi Racing

4. Denny Hamlin- Joe Gibbs Racing

5. Kevin Harvick- Stewart-Haas Racing

6. Clint Bowyer- Stewart-Haas Racing

7. Brad Keselowski- Team Penske

8. Kurt Busch- Stewart-Haas Racing

9. Matt Kenseth- Joe Gibbs Racing

10. Austin Dillon- Richard Childress Racing

11. Trevor Bayne- Roush Fenway Racing

12. Danica Patrick- Stewart-Haas Racing

13. Aric Almirola- Richard Petty Motorsports

14. Ryan Newman- Richard Childress Racing

15. Joey Logano- Team Penske

16. Kyle Larson- Chip Ganassi Racing

17. Cole Whitt- TriStar Motorsports

18. Ty Dillon- Germain Racing

19. Daniel Suarez- Joe Gibbs Racing

20. David Ragan- Front Row Motorsports

21. Kyle Busch- Joe Gibbs Racing

22. Michael McDowell- Leavine Family Racing

23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.- Roush Fenway Racing

24. Jimmie Johnson- Hendrick Motorsports

25. Matt DiBenedetto- Go Fas Racing

26. Kasey Kahne- Hendrick Motorsports

27. Landon Cassill- Front Row Motorsports

28. DJ Kennington (Open Team)- Gaunt Brothers Racing

29. Joey Gase- BK Racing

30. Michael Waltrip- Premium Motorsports

31. Corey LaJoie (Open Team)- BK Racing

32. Jeffrey Earnhardt- Circle Sport - The Motorsports Group

33. Paul Menard- Richard Childress Racing

34. Erik Jones- Furniture Row Racing

35. Martin Truex Jr.- Furniture Row Racing

36. Ryan Blaney- Wood Brothers Racing

37. Chris Buescher- JTG Daugherty Racing

38. AJ Allmendinger- JTG Daugherty Racing

39. Brendan Gaughan (Open Team)- Beard Motorsports

40. Elliott Sadler (Open Team)- Tommy Baldwin Racing

Duel One Results

1. Chase Elliott

2. Jamie McMurray

3. Kevin Harvick

4. Brad Keselowski

5. Matt Kenseth

6. Trevor Bayne

7. Martin Truex Jr.

8. Aric Almirola

9. Joey Logano

10. Cole Whitt

11. Daniel Suarez

12. Kyle Busch

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

14. Matt DiBenedetto

15. Landon Cassill

16. Chris Buescher

17. Joey Gase

18. Corey LaJoie

19. Brendan Gaughan

20. Paul Menard

21. Reed Sorenson

Quick Notes: The first duel was wild and crazy. Within it we got to see a bunch of really strong cars that will play a factor on Sunday. Chase Elliott was really the only guy to make a move on Brad Keselowski and have it stick, showing a ton of strength. Speaking of BK, Team Penske (including the No. 21 before an indecent with Ragan in Duel two) are all very strong. McMurray showed a ton of speed and also that he isn't afraid to be aggressive. Lastly, LaJoie got into Sorenson in a move where he really didn't have room and it ended in Sorenson missing the 500.

Duel Two Results

1. Denny Hamlin

2. Clint Bowyer

3. Kurt Busch

4. AJ Allmendinger

5. Austin Dillon

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

7. Danica Patrick

8. Ryan Newman

9. Kyle Larson

10. Ty Dillon

11. David Ragan

12. Michael McDowell

13. Jimmie Johnson

14. Kasey Kahne

15. D.J. Kennington

16. Elliott Sadler

17. Michael Waltrip

18. Jeffrey Earnhardt

19. Erik Jones

20. Ryan Blaney

21. Timmy Hill

Quick Notes: This Duel was a bit more tame then round one, but still interesting. Junior showed he still has a strong car especially when out front. Hamlin also showed he is one of the best at Daytona by charging up front and getting the right help at the right time -- JGR will be a factor on Sunday. Blaney was showing a strong car until Ragan got into the 48 and then into him (Ragan's second indecent) -- JJ will take a backup car to the back to start Sunday. Bowyer and AD also showed they can find a way to the front and make it stick.

Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2017

Who Will be NASCAR's Champion in 2017?

By Richard Tix

On Friday I spoke about my 2017 NASCAR Playoff predictions that included the 16 drivers I picked to make the Playoffs and how confident I felt in those picks. I also added a few wildcards that could make a splash, so if you haven't yet go check out 2017 NASCAR Playoff Predictions.

Per natural progressions its only right that next up we battle how the Playoffs will actually play out. Now, if it's hard to predict 16 of 16 drivers that will make the playoffs that makes picking how the playoffs will go almost impossible. Yet, here we are.

To be honest, I do this almost as much for me as I do for you guys. I love making these predictions and setting it in stone and seeing how my feelings change all year long. It's a long and grueling schedule and by the time the Playoffs roll around it is easy to forget what you once predicted, so alas lets get it in writing below.

So, lets break down some past Champions and then I'll take a stab at the final eight, four, and Champion of the 2017 season.

NASCAR Champions 1994-2016
Chase Era 2.0 Champions 2014-2016
Year	Driver	WIN (%)	Top 5 (%)	Top 10 (%)	Start	Fin	Laps Lead
2016	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	11 (30.6%)	16 (52.8%)	12.1	14	737
2015	Ky. Busch	5 (20%)*	12 (48%)*	16 (64%)*	8.2*	10.8*	735*
2014	Harvick	5 (13.9%)	14 (38.88%)	20 (55.55%)	9.1	12.9	2137
14-16 Avg	3 Drivers	5 Wins	12.33 Top 5's	17.3 Top 10's	9.8	12.56	1,203
Original Chase Champions 2004-2013
2013	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.7	1985
2012	Keselowski	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	23 (63.9%)	16.2	10.1	735
2011	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	9 (25.0%)	19 (52.8%)	17.7	12	913
2010	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	17 (47.2%)	23 (63.9%)	9.4	12.2	1315
2009	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	8.2	11.1	2238
2008	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	15 (41.7%)	22 (61.1%)	8.5	10.5	1959
2007	Johnson	10 (27.8%)	20 (55.6%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.8	1290
2006	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	24 (66.7%)	10.8	9.7	854
2005	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	17 (47.2%)	25 (69.4%)	12	9.9	1845
2004	Ku Busch	3 (8.3%)	10 (27.8%)	21 (58.3%)	15	12.5	746
04-12 Avg	10 Drivers	5.9 Wins	14.6 Top 5's	22.9 Top 10's	11.74	11	1388
Pre-Chase Era 1994-2003
2003	Kenseth	1 (2.8%)	11 (30.6%)	25 (69.4%)	21.3	10.2	354
2002	Stewart	3 (8.3%)	15 (41.7%)	21 (58.3%)	13.2	12.6	745
2001	Gordon	6 (16.7%)	18 (50.0%)	24 (66.7%)	9.5	11	2320
2000	B Labonte	4 (11.8%)	19 (55.9%)	24 (70.6%)	11.6	7.4	465
1999	Jarrett	4 (11.8%)	24 (70.6%)	29 (85.3%)	13.2	6.8	1061
1998	Gordon	7 (20.6%)	18 (52.9%)	21 (61.8%)	7.4	12.9	1319
1997	Gordon	10 (31.2%)	22 (68.8%)	23 (71.9%)	9.4	9.6	1647
1996	T Labonte	2 (6.5%)	21 (67.7%)	24 (77.4%)	10.6	8.2	973
1995	Gordon	7 (22.6%)	17 (54.8%)	23 (74.2%)	5	9.5	2610
1994	Earnhardt	4 (12.9%)	20 (64.5%)	25 (80.6%)	15.3	8	1013
94-03 Avg	10 Drivers	4.8 Wins	18.5 Top 5's	23.9 Top 10's	11.65	9.62	1250.7

*Percentages based on the 25 races Ky. Busch ran in 2015

If we learned anything in three years it was that three years would not create enough statistics to give us any ideas of trends by NASCAR Champions. Year one went pretty smooth (Harvick was strong all year and won), year two a short seasoned driver won (though one of the best drivers, Kyle missed 11 races skewing stats), and last year JJ won in a pretty surprising fashion (some of the least impressive Championship stats we have seen). So, adding those things together and we have more questions then answers after three years into the newest Chase Era.

Well, now the era enters it's 2.0 version after NASCAR switched up the points system. Sure, the eliminations will be the same, but drivers will get to carry segment win points into the playoffs with them giving them more incentive to have a great regular season.

What I expect to see is regular season points do really help the strongest regular season drivers in the playoff, but the playoff still leaves plenty of "out of left field" moments to be had since a win still advances you automatically.

Through three years the statistics have started to sculpt the idea that Champions can win with less stats. Is that because it is easier or because everyone now can use so many different strategies to get there that stats can be misleading?

To me, it seems NASCAR included the points for segment wins into the 2017 points system so the strongest cars all year long (26 regular season races) have a better shot during the playoffs of advancing. It will not rule out the shocking win that automatically advances drivers, but it might even out the difference between old school and new school points systems a bit.

On thing is for sure, only time will tell how well the newest points structure will effect racing. We will see how it all plays out in 2017 and some extra data can be added to this elimination era and maybe trends can be found. In the end, this era maybe the hardest to put simple trends on because so much more goes into how strategies work even if NASCAR is trying to move back towards the regular season meaning more.


2017 Chase Predictions

Final Eight


Nothing too shocking here as Penske, JGR, and HMS make up the majority. Too be honest the one I am most worried about is Truex since Furniture Row is expanding into two race teams this year (No. 77). But, by the time the Playoffs roll around things should be smoothed out leaving only the surprise winner or terrible round to dismantle this final eight.

Drivers: Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, and Chase Elliott

Final Four


Three eliminations already have taken place (four if you include the Playoffs being the first). What are the chances of having all of these right? Last year I picked JoLo (correct), Jimmie Johnson (correct), Brad Keselowski (incorrect), and Denny Hamlin (incorrect). When it comes to picking Penske and JGR drivers, its a shot in the barrel and I went the wrong way. This year HMS is missing out (making this an easy target to be wrong) and only one JGR car (which we have seen hasn't happened often). These four were all fast in 2016 and could leave us with a zero Chevy title race in Miami (Ford EcoBoost would be a happy camper if this were the final four come race 36).

Drivers: Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski

2017 Champion


Last year I predicted JoLo to win his first title if he didn't cause a ruckus like what happened in 2015 with Matt Kenseth. Well, he did stay pretty darn clean and was still short of a Championship -- that's just how this format can play out. I'm going back to the well on this prediction this year and sticking with Logano. So many guys are hitting their strides in NASCAR right now and one of those guys is JoLo. I think a Championship is bound to happen for Joey, so why not this year?

Driver: Joey Logano


The fun in all of this? Anyone with a bit of a clue of who is in NASCAR and how the format works could give you a list and have just as much a chance at getting all the round right as I do. Their is no right or wrong answer to the question of "who will be NASCAR's Champion in 2017?" So, who do you have in the final four and who is your 2017 Champion?