2015 Driver Spotlight Review: Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch 2015 Review

By Richard Tix

2015 Preview

Season Grade: A+

Season Preview: "Even in a bad 2014 season Kyle Busch made a run in the Chase. Will he truly become a title contender in 2015? After a great finish to the 2013 season I thought last year would be the year. Maybe all he needed was a down year to refocus? I think JGR will take a step back in the right direction as will Kyle. I think he could end up with 4-5 wins, 12-14 top 5's, and 20-22 top 10's. As always, it is expected he makes the Chase and I think at this point in his career he needs to be in contention for a title."

Season Review: Kyle getting hurt threw off some of my yearly prediction numbers for him, but these reviews are not about what I predicted, but rather how the driver did. Rowdy still managed to get to my predicted 5 wins and 12 top 5's, but he only managed 16 top 10's in 25 races (which is 64% of the time). So, if you take that in a full season he would have been around 23 if he was on the same pace.

Needless to say, even after missing time 2015 was an amazing year for Rowdy. He won 20% of the time, finished top 5 48% of the time, and top 10 64% of the time in races he ran (25). Many are discrediting his Championship already because it wasn't during 36 races, yet he put up amazing numbers in even less time. If anything, fans should at least recognize he did everything he possibly could to deserve it once NASCAR noted he would be eligible for the Chase if he was top 30 and had at least one win by race 27 of 2015. 

In 25 races he has a better season then Carl Edwards who if he made the final four no one would have complained...He also had arguably the same success as teammate Matt Kenseth, who no one would have complained about if he made the finale and won (Kyle had the same amount of wins and top 5's with only 4 fewer top 10's then Kenseth). 

Sure, it will not always be the strongest season long driver to win (neither are most sports), but that is what makes sports fun and exciting. Sure, it isn't fair, but people would get sick of knowing the Champ with four races left if we went back to just points racing (obviously some season's we would have close finishes).

So, after 11 years of the Chase can we start to move on? We are not going back and we need to celebrate a guy like Kyle Busch who fought through a ton of adversity to win his first Cup Championship. Congrats Rowdy, you did in fact earn it!

Previous Driver Spotlights

2015 Pit Road Week 36: Homestead

Weekly NASCAR Review and Power Rankings

Ford EcoBoost 400

By Richard Tix

That's it folks, 2015 is in the books. For the fifth straight season NASCAR has crowned a different Champion (Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch with three of them being first time Champions (BK, Harvick, and Rowdy). It was fun season with plenty of ups and downs, drama, and controversy. In the end, it was entertaining and fun to experience it with all the fans.

From opening season story lines of how dominate Kyle Larson will be in his second season, to can Kyle Busch come back from his leg injuries. Right into Jeff Gordon retiring full time and the #24 being taken over by rookie Chase Elliott. Capping it off with the Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth feud, Junior coming withing feet of advancing, Harvick triggering a wreck and advancing, and Kyle "Rowdy" Busch finally winning his long sought after Championship (Yes, I predicted him winning in 2013 and 2014. After being wrong I chose different in 2015 and he finally won one!).

As we have every year, we had some good hard racing and also some races finished by fuel mileage. We had deserving winners and lucky ones. We had racing incidents and also purposeful wrecks. All in all we had everything that makes up racing, good or bad, during a 36 race season.

Lucky for NASCAR fans the offseason is only 90 days long. However, it still isn't easy for many fans so NBTW will stick around and review the season, plus start preview next year. 

Last up for 2015 before driver reviews, the final season power rankings. These were lumped together as a season long rankings and not just the last few races, so think of it as a power rankings in review.

Pit Road Power Rankings Week 36 (Week 35)

1. Kyle Busch (LW-2)- "He didn't race all the races. He didn't deserve it." Kyle Busch played by the rules, and still beat the other drivers out there. Since his return he was one of the best cars weekly and with his wins undoubtedly deserved a shot at the title. If he ran all year he might have ran away with it... Just think about that. Oh, and when all was said and done, three other drives had a heads up shot to beat him and they didn't. Congrats Rowdy.
2. Jeff Gordon (LW-3)- This is more like 1B in the rankings. He wasn't able to go out on top, but Gordon had one heck of a career. He has been a great ambassador for the sport and helped take it to where it is today. Almost everyone in the NASCAR community will miss him on the track. He took the Southern sport to the West Coast and made everyone think of one thing when they saw the #24, winning. Thanks for the great career Jeff Gordon.
3. Kevin Harvick (LW-1)- The #2 spot was out of respect for a great career and one last shot at the top for Gordon, in my regular rankings Harvick would be #2. What a year he had, but it was filled with a lot of what if's. He has a ton of runner up finishes, yet had a tough Chase where he had to (not proven) cause a Talladega caution to move on. The #4 was one of the best cars all year and most of NASCAR is still trying to catch him.
4. Joey Logano (LW-6)- It's pretty amazing the year JoLo had, but a run in with the wrong guy apparently left him out of the running for the Championship. No matter what you say, the kid has talent and if Penske keeps up the hot streak they will be back in it next year.
5. Brad Keselowski (LW-5)- Speaking of Penske, BK once again lost because of a late debris caution. On the next restart he wasn't as fast as the two Championship contenders so he took the high line (but no one noticed...). He had a good year, but it wasn't what he has become used to. Look for he and teammate JoLo to continue there hot streak in 2016.
6. Martin Truex Jr (LW-4)- What a year for this small team. After all the struggles Truex had last year this year was a 180. Not only did they compete weekly, finally win a race with Martin, and announce the addition of a second car in the coming years, but they had a legit shot at a Championship at Miami. It will be tough to top 2015, but next year they move to Toyota and will work with JGR. If JGR and Toyota keep up what they finished in 2015 then it could be a memorable year.
7. Jimmie Johnson (LW-9)- Another "down year" and another 5 wins. He isn't far off from the stats he put up in Championship years, but other drivers have caught up and are putting up 20+ top 5's compared to JJ's 14 (JJ has only had 20 top 5's twice in 2004 and 2007). His laps lead really went down this season, so that will be something they look to improve while trying to get back to the top.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr (LW-7)- That is two really good seasons in a row for Junior and with two different CC's. Maybe bringing some consistency back will be what he needs? He was so close to the finale if he would have got that Dega win.
9. Matt Kenseth (LW-NR)- Kenseth gets to come back to the rankings in the end of season rankings. He didn't finish strong (almost falling apart after the Kansas incident), but he had a great season overall. Lead by a strong middle of the year (same with almost every JGR car), Kenseth finished with 5 wins, 20 top 10's, and thousands of extra fans.
10. Denny Hamlin (LW-11)- Injuries and issues got in the way of Hamlin for a few years and it seemed like we had seen the last of vintage Hamlin in just an early career. However, he bounce back this year in the shoulders of some strong JGR cars. 2 wins were the most since 2012 (5), 14 top 5's tied the most since 2012, and 20 top 10's ties a career high (2009 and 2006). 
11. Kurt Busch (LW-10)- It's been a long road back, but Kurt made it finally. 2016 he will get a fresh start with a fresh new contract, but he did some great things in just 33 races this season. His 21 top 10's tied his career high and it was his first multi win season since 2011. 
12. Carl Edwards (LW-8)- Season long, it was a rough first year at JGR. But, once JGR got going so did Edwards. I use the last rankings for the year as kind of a season long power rankings so Carl slid a bit, but he had a great Chase run where he just came up short. Next year could be the year of JGR, which will give Carl a shot at a title, finally.

Congratulations Kyle Busch! 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion

2015 NASCAR Buy or Sell: Kyle Busch

Buy or Sell Kyle Busch in 2015

By Richard Tix

It is getting to be that time of year again in the NASCAR world, the time of year where Chase dreams are won and lost week by week. Many drivers have already locked there Chase spot up with a win during the 2015 season, but Kyle Busch has more work to do.

Even with two wins, he still is not locked into the 2015 Chase. Why is that? Well, because Chase eligible drivers have to be in the top 30 of the points standings when the Chase hits the schedule. After missing a bunch of races after his XFINITY wreck at Daytona to start the year, Kyle was set back substantially in the points standings. 

That being said, lets look at the reasons you should buy into his chance at the Chase and even winning the Chase and the reason's you should not buy in.

Reason's to Buy In

• In just two races back after missing 11 to start the season, Kyle Busch already has two wins. Those two wins come in the last 3 races so he is starting to get on a roll. During that roll he closed the gap on Cole Whitt in the points standings and is now just 87 points out of 30th.
• Cole Whitt: That's reason two...The guys between he and 30th position are Whitt, Gilliland, Moffitt, Bowman, and Annett. Between all of these guys they total 86 races and only one top 10 and only four top 15's (almost all at the Daytona 500). Kyle only needed seven races to notch two wins, two top 5's, and three top 10's (four top 15's). So, the competition isn't very stiff on his was to the top 30.
• NASCAR has 8 races left before the 2015 Chase starts which means Kyle has 8 races to catch up. NASCAR heads to NHMS, Indianapolis, Pocono, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Britstol, Darlington, and Richmond. He has wins at 6 of the 8 remaining tracks (No wins at Indy or Pocono). At those 6 he has a total of 14 career wins at the Cup level. He may not have a win at Indy yet, but he does have an average finish of 10.6 there. If he can avoid bad finishes at Pocono (18.3 avg finish) and Michigan (20 avg finish) and pull off another win or two he should lock himself into the top 30 with ease. At the same 8 final tracks Kyle has an avg finish of 14th or better at 6 of them.
• The biggest reason to tune into the hype train that is Kyle Busch making the Chase and maybe even a run at the title? Kyle just know's how to win. He is now up to 31 career wins at the young age of 30 (yes, more wins then years old). Of current drivers only four are in front of him for total wins (all older: Gordon, Johnson, Stewart, and Kenseth). At a current pace he wins 8.3% of the races he is a part of. So, between the simple fact he know's how to win at this level and that he has 14 career wins at the next 8 tracks it is easy to see him winning at least once before the Chase starts.

Reason's to Sell

• Missing 11 races put Kyle Busch in a huge hole to come back from. The more wins he has the easier each step is, but if he doesn't win in the next 8 races he will have to stay very consistent throughout. I believe he has to have an average finish of about 17th the rest of the way (Courtesy of PJ Walsh FantasyNASCARPreview.com) to get to the top 30. Kyle Busch does have a career average finish of 15.3, but with this much pressure any misstep will create a larger hole. This hole is the biggest reason to not buy into Kyle Busch coming back in time. Can it be done? Sure, but it wont be easy and each week will be a roller coaster. 
• Kyle Busch's track record. Even if Kyle gets to the Chase, will he actually compete? It would take a hot run to get into the Chase so the easy answer is yes, he will make a run. But, in his career Kyle hasn't exactly been the closer. When the Chase wraps up he finds himself much farther out of the points then when the Chase started. Can he actually close?
• On that same note, Kyle Busch has been known more has a regular season Champion then a playoff champion. In 2013 I thought he was turning the corner after finishing 4th in points, but then last year luck got in the way and he got left out of the final 8 after Dega. With the new Chase format anything can happen and he could be out in the first round.
• 8 races, 8 races are left. Anything can happen in that time including just a few "wrong place, wrong time" type deals. If he gets into trouble in a few races then that average finish he needs will start going back up. If it starts climbing will the stress get to him? A season long stress of trying to win and get into the top 30 is nothing compared to an 8 race pressure cooker. Will Kyle keep his composure is something does happen? He has a past track record of sometimes letting his emotion's get the best of him. Pressure week by week to make the right calls will hold a huge piece of Kyle Busch's Chase chances.

2015 Driver Spotlight Preview: Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch 2015 Season Preview

By Richard Tix

2014 Season Review

Kyle Busch (no typo here, we will actually be talking about Kyle, not Kurt. Just in case Keith Olberman would check out NASCAR Behind the Wall I thought I would clarify). Speaking of Kurt, Kyle had a better season than his older brother, but in the end I still came away disappointed with Kyle's production.

Rowdy's 2014 numbers were some of the worst of his career as a whole. His average finish of 17.6 was the worst it has been since his rookie season (2005). His top 5's (9) tied a career low (2009 and 2005).

Yet, at the end of the season there was Rowdy in contention to move on after Talladega. All he had to do was ride around and stay out of trouble. Kyle was doing just that, playing it safe when a caution came out. Driver checked up but he ended up getting hit from behind which left him out for a number of laps.

In the end that costly bad luck moment left him out of the Chase for the final four races. Part of Kyle Busch's issues were the fact that JGR seemed to have issues finding speed week after week. During the Chase it seemed like they brought there A game, but because of Kyle's bad luck we never found out how far that would carry him.

Even in a bad season Rowdy still had 1 win, 9 top 5's, 15 top 10's, 3 poles, and made the Chase.


Bold Predictions/2015 Season Expectations:

• Even in a bad 2014 season Kyle Busch made a run in the Chase. Will he truly become a title contender in 2015? After a great finish to the 2013 season I thought last year would be the year. Maybe all he needed was a down year to refocus? I think JGR will take a step back in the right direction as will Kyle. I think he could end up with 4-5 wins, 12-14 top 5's, and 20-22 top 10's. As always, it is expected he makes the Chase and I think at this point in his career he needs to be in contention for a title.

List of Previous Driver Spotlights