2017 NASCAR Week 2: Atlanta

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway

By Richard Tix

Week two of the NASCAR season is where the real season starts. The jitters to get the season started are over with and the hopes of winning the 2017 Daytona 500 are now gone for everyone but Kurt Busch. The season grind is about to start and for the next 25 races we will figure out who is strong enough to make the 2017 Playoffs.

Daytona is fun and all, but it really doesn't give us a ton of information on how teams will attack the new season. It's hard to see which teams have an early season advantage on others and which teams are still fast. It's tough to see if a manufacturing change will effect SHR, its hard to see if JGR focusing on last years package and not the new one late in the season will mean anything. Its almost impossible to see if RCR or RFR may make strides in 2017 and none of those things are even mentioning how the young guns might fair in the new season.

However, some of those answers will start to take shape this week at AMS. Not only will some team storylines start taking shape but we can get a better grasp on how the new stages and 5 min rule will work on NASCAR's typical track (meaning, not a plate track). 1.5 mile tracks rule the NASCAR schedule so this weekend will be a good test to seeing how the rules were thought to actually play out on a typical week.

The real season will dip into full swing this week, so strap in folks, it's going to be a fun and wild ride.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Jimmie Johnson- JJ has come away the victory at ATL the last two season's after starting 19th and 37th. If that doesn't say it all, I am not sure what does. Even though Atlanta is a place you can make moves early, it is still impressive what he has done here lately.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- Junior's last five starts here include four top ten's and five finishes inside the top 11. He also has back to back top fives coming into this weekend (2016 and 2015).
• Kevin Harvick- Harvick's first career win came at Atlanta which most die hard NASCAR fans know and remember clearly. But in the middle of then and now he really fell off at Atlanta production wise. Since 2008 he has started to flip the script again with nine top ten's in twelve races, but he is still looking for win number two here.

The Middle

• Kyle Busch- It's tough to put a finger on Kyle at Atlanta. He has two career wins here (2008 and 2013), but in between it has been a rollercoaster. Last year he finished third after starting 39th so I tend to think he is heading up right now, hoping their is no fall this time.

The Bad

• Clint Bowyer- Six straight finishes of 24th or worse for Bowyer at Atlanta. Maybe the changing of teams to SHR will help him correct what's been going on at AMS?
• Jamie McMurray- Four top ten's in 23 career starts and an average finish of 20.6 are not stat's you want following your name around. His last top 10 came in 2008 and since then only has four top 15's in ten races.
• Kasey Kahne- Back to back weeks on the "Bad" list is concerning to me -- sorry Kahne fans, sorry PETM. The bright side? Kahne maybe the first driver on my "Bad" list to have three wins at a specific track which means he has the potential to turn it around and in a big way. However, sandwiching his 2014 win are finishes including 32nd, 34th, 23rd, 36th, 14th, and 23rd. 

About the Track: Atlanta

Track Stats

• Fireball Roberts won the first Cup race at Atlanta in 1960 after starting on the Pole.
• An Atlanta Cup race has been won 11 times from the Pole. Only twice since 1991.
• Last time the race was won from the Pole was 2006 when Kasey Kahne won.
• Bobby Labonte won after starting 39th in 2001. The furthest back anyone has started and won at ATL
• An Atlanta race has been won five times from 30+ starting position including 2015 when Jimmie Johnson won from 37th.
• Since 2011 NASCAR has only ran one race at ATL each season. For the 2015 season ATL was moved from towards the end of the regular season to the beginning of the season.
• Fords last win was in 2008 (Carl Edwards). Carl also won in 2005 (twice). The last Ford driver not named Carl Edwards to win was Kurt Busch in 2002.

Track Info

• Length - 1.54 miles
• Banking
• Turns: 24 degrees
• Straights: 5 degrees

2017 NASCAR Schedule: Atlanta

Honor QuikTrip  500

By Richard Tix

All times are Eastern Time Zone (ET)

Friday March 3rd, 2017

• 10-10:55 a.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series practice- FS1
• 11-11:55 a.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series practice- FS1
• 12-1:25 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice- FS1
• 1:30-2:25 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series practice- FS1
• 2:30-3:25 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series practice- FS1
• 3:30-4:25 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series final practice- FS1
• 4:30-5:25 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series final practice- FS1
• 5:45 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Coors Light Pole Qualifying- FS1

Saturday March 4, 2017

• 9:15 a.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series Coors Light Pole Qualifying- FS1
• 10:40 a.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Keystone Light Pole Qualifying- FS1
• 12-1:20 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice- FS1
• 2 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series Rinnai 250 (163 laps)- FS1
• 4:30 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Active Pest Control 200 (130 laps)- FS1

Sunday March 5th, 2017

• 2:30 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip  500 (325 laps)- FOX

2017 NASCAR Pit Road Week 1: Daytona

Weekly Review and Power Rankings

Daytona 500

By Richard Tix

Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rings in its new sponsorship with the No. 41 Monster Energy Stewart Haas Racing Ford Fusion in Victory Lane. No, really, you can't even make that up or script it even better.

Oh, and before you go all conspiracy theory -- I know some of you already have somehow decided it was rigged -- NASCAR can not script 35 of 40 cars getting in a wreck and somehow Kurt Busch keeps it together enough to get to Victory Lane. Even if they wanted to, they couldn't script it that he gets the lead on the very last lap or goes through the grass earlier in a wreck but the splitter doesn't come flying off.

But, here we are with a Monster Energy car in Victory Lane in a Monster Energy sponsored series, pretty cool. You know what's even cooler? The post race emotion when Tony Gibson was interviewed on his box on pit road. Man, he showed every emotion he had in his body and laid it on the line which was fantastic to see.

After a week of working and fighting for every second of speed, it paid off for the No. 41 team and to see Tony show us all what it meant to him and his friends and family was great. 

When it comes to the race it had a lot of just about everything. The race started out clean and organized after a weekend filled with beat up and flying cars/trucks. Then stage right comes JGR and the Toyota crew that started bringing us plenty of strategy to gnaw on. We had lead changes and some close calls, and eventually the cautions started to act up. Once they started it was like a leaky faucet that just couldn't be turned off -- folks, that's plate track racing if you haven't noticed.

The rule package on this February Sunday afternoon wouldn't have mattered, the gimmick of plate racing will lead to these types of races from time to time. Yet, each year no matter the rules, cars, or anything else, fan's go the easy route and blame it on whatever recent change NASCAR has made. That's a simple mind blaming changes on something after one race without really taking it in fully and seeing it play out at different types of tracks.

That's because no one want's to really point out it's more based on the nature of plate racing and not the current scoring option chosen by NASCAR, Monster, its drivers, and it's teams. Daytona and Talladega are two huge names on the NASCAR schedule to outside fans so actually partially blaming something only found at those track's is the hard thing to do so why not take the easy way out?

Look, I still enjoy the heck out of plate racing, but I understand the race right now is more gimmick then skill. Yes, skill is needed to navigate and make your way to the front. Yes, tons of skill goes into understanding aero on these tracks and knowing how to use it to your advantage. But, that's a huge but, at any moment 15 cars can be taken out by the simplest move and take all that knowledge and skill right out of the race. The percentage odds of that happening at a plate track compared to other tracks is just so much higher that it's hard to judge a new rule or package solely on this race.

So, sit back and enjoy Atlanta next week. Let the point system and new rules really set in before attacking media members with tweets complaining about NASCAR and what they did this time to screw up the sport.

Now, enough about plate racing because we will put it behind us for a few weeks, lets get into this weeks Behind the Wall Power Rankings! Oh and one last thought about the upcoming season after Daytona -- more GRONK in NASCAR!

Pit Road Power Rankings: Week 1 (Preseason)

1. Joey Logano (LW-3)- JoLo had a rough start as he hit pit road early, but he fought back and gave himself a shot late in the race. He finished second in the second stage and was part of the last group standing in the closing laps.
2. Kevin Harvick (LW-5)- Guess who's fourth in points after only completing 197 of 200 laps? Yeah, this team will love the stage points because of how consistently fast they are week in and week out.
3. Kurt Busch (LW-11)- What a win. Tony Gibson showed just how much the Daytona 500 means to him and his team. Kurt put on the perfect move at the perfect time in what was an entertaining 500.
4. Chase Elliott (LW-6)- For awhile it looked like it was Elliott's to lose, and in the end it was. He had an issue late and was mysteriously holding the high line -- instead of the low line. Either way, he was impressive all weekend long and will take lessons learned with him to Atlanta.
5. Kyle Busch (LW-2)- The Toyota's were on their own strategy from the start but because of how things played out we never got to see how it would fully work out. Unfortunately for Kyle he randomly lost a tire and took a bunch of guys with him.
6. Ryan Blaney (LW-17)- Wow, was Blaney impressive all day. Heck, Ryan showed he was ready in year two all weekend. He couldn't get a late push tp help him get to Kurt's back bumper, but he still displayed some impressive moves.
7. Jimmie Johnson (LW-1)- Well, JJ's week could have gone better. It's like everyone said "lets take out JJ this week in Daytona."Just like that David Ragan, Trevor Bayne, and Jamie McMurray took care of business. JJ will be back in Atlanta.
8. Kyle Larson (LW-8)- What could have been. Larson moved his way up front only to come up short on fuel late that had him fall way back. 
9. Denny Hamlin (LW-9)- Another Toyota caught up in a bunch of messes, DH and team still fought through and came away with the ninth most points even after only finishing 199 laps.
10. Kasey Kahne (LW-16)- At one point Kahne fans were breathing more heavily yet trying to act like they weren't noticing it in case they would jinx him. Well, it didn't work, but it was still refreshing seeing him in a spot to contend late in the race.
11. Martin Truex Jr (LW-4)- After that horrid start to the race it was impressive to see the No. 78 up front with that right front taped up and a chance to win.
12. Brad Keselowski (LW-7)- A fast car all weekend with some nice stage points, BK couldn't escape all of the wreckage and eventually got caught up.

2017 Daytona 500 Starting Order

Can-Am Duel Results and Daytona 500 Starting Order

By Richard Tix

With the big race around the corner, here is a look at how the Can-Am Duels played out and what the starting lineup for the 2017 Daytona 500 will look like. 

Daytona Weekend Articles

• Preseason Power Rankings
• Daytona Race Preview
• Speedweek Schedule
• 2017 NASCAR Driver List and Changes
• 2017 NASCAR Paint Schemes

2017 Daytona 500 Starting Order

1. Chase Elliott- Hendrick Motorsports

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Hendrick Motorsports

3. Jamie McMurray- Chip Ganassi Racing

4. Denny Hamlin- Joe Gibbs Racing

5. Kevin Harvick- Stewart-Haas Racing

6. Clint Bowyer- Stewart-Haas Racing

7. Brad Keselowski- Team Penske

8. Kurt Busch- Stewart-Haas Racing

9. Matt Kenseth- Joe Gibbs Racing

10. Austin Dillon- Richard Childress Racing

11. Trevor Bayne- Roush Fenway Racing

12. Danica Patrick- Stewart-Haas Racing

13. Aric Almirola- Richard Petty Motorsports

14. Ryan Newman- Richard Childress Racing

15. Joey Logano- Team Penske

16. Kyle Larson- Chip Ganassi Racing

17. Cole Whitt- TriStar Motorsports

18. Ty Dillon- Germain Racing

19. Daniel Suarez- Joe Gibbs Racing

20. David Ragan- Front Row Motorsports

21. Kyle Busch- Joe Gibbs Racing

22. Michael McDowell- Leavine Family Racing

23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.- Roush Fenway Racing

24. Jimmie Johnson- Hendrick Motorsports

25. Matt DiBenedetto- Go Fas Racing

26. Kasey Kahne- Hendrick Motorsports

27. Landon Cassill- Front Row Motorsports

28. DJ Kennington (Open Team)- Gaunt Brothers Racing

29. Joey Gase- BK Racing

30. Michael Waltrip- Premium Motorsports

31. Corey LaJoie (Open Team)- BK Racing

32. Jeffrey Earnhardt- Circle Sport - The Motorsports Group

33. Paul Menard- Richard Childress Racing

34. Erik Jones- Furniture Row Racing

35. Martin Truex Jr.- Furniture Row Racing

36. Ryan Blaney- Wood Brothers Racing

37. Chris Buescher- JTG Daugherty Racing

38. AJ Allmendinger- JTG Daugherty Racing

39. Brendan Gaughan (Open Team)- Beard Motorsports

40. Elliott Sadler (Open Team)- Tommy Baldwin Racing

Duel One Results

1. Chase Elliott

2. Jamie McMurray

3. Kevin Harvick

4. Brad Keselowski

5. Matt Kenseth

6. Trevor Bayne

7. Martin Truex Jr.

8. Aric Almirola

9. Joey Logano

10. Cole Whitt

11. Daniel Suarez

12. Kyle Busch

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

14. Matt DiBenedetto

15. Landon Cassill

16. Chris Buescher

17. Joey Gase

18. Corey LaJoie

19. Brendan Gaughan

20. Paul Menard

21. Reed Sorenson

Quick Notes: The first duel was wild and crazy. Within it we got to see a bunch of really strong cars that will play a factor on Sunday. Chase Elliott was really the only guy to make a move on Brad Keselowski and have it stick, showing a ton of strength. Speaking of BK, Team Penske (including the No. 21 before an indecent with Ragan in Duel two) are all very strong. McMurray showed a ton of speed and also that he isn't afraid to be aggressive. Lastly, LaJoie got into Sorenson in a move where he really didn't have room and it ended in Sorenson missing the 500.

Duel Two Results

1. Denny Hamlin

2. Clint Bowyer

3. Kurt Busch

4. AJ Allmendinger

5. Austin Dillon

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

7. Danica Patrick

8. Ryan Newman

9. Kyle Larson

10. Ty Dillon

11. David Ragan

12. Michael McDowell

13. Jimmie Johnson

14. Kasey Kahne

15. D.J. Kennington

16. Elliott Sadler

17. Michael Waltrip

18. Jeffrey Earnhardt

19. Erik Jones

20. Ryan Blaney

21. Timmy Hill

Quick Notes: This Duel was a bit more tame then round one, but still interesting. Junior showed he still has a strong car especially when out front. Hamlin also showed he is one of the best at Daytona by charging up front and getting the right help at the right time -- JGR will be a factor on Sunday. Blaney was showing a strong car until Ragan got into the 48 and then into him (Ragan's second indecent) -- JJ will take a backup car to the back to start Sunday. Bowyer and AD also showed they can find a way to the front and make it stick.

2017 NASCAR Week 1: Daytona

Daytona 500

Daytona International Superspeedway

By Richard Tix

The day has finally come. No, not Daytona Day -- because as much as I love the publicity for NASCAR, its the Daytona 500 and is the one race in the year that doesn't need a cheesy name attached to it to get peoples attention.

It's finally the Daytona 500 and the start of the 2017 season. Fans have waited 98 days this offseason to see, smell, and hear cars back on the track -- just don't let Denny Hamlin know you were counting down...

A ton has happened in that short amount of time where NASCAR left Homestead and arrived in Daytona, which is weird because they're in the same state.

Monster Energy jumped on board to be NASCAR's title sponsor which to most was exciting news. Monster brings new life and new energy to the sport still trying to find it's way through the old school fan's and new fan's it so desperately desires. 

Along with the possibility of Monster girls, they also brought in a new points system for 2017. Ok, it wasn't just Monster, but rather a mix of them, NASCAR (management, drivers, and teams), and TV partners. The social media meltdown most of us assumed would happen was actually pretty mellow as many fan's took the points idea and ran with it.

Tony Stewart, Brian Scott, and Carl Edwards....Yes, Carl Edwards... They all up and left the sport after the 2016 season. We knew about Smoke (announcing before the year) and Scott was surprising, but not as shocking as Twitter-less Carl taking the year off. It left fans with a ton of question's to start the season about why?

However, one door closing just gave another driver a door to open wide open. That driver is Daniel Suarez who will take over the No. 19 and compete head to head to head with fellow Toyota (JGR development driver) driver Erik Jones and RCR driver Ty Dillon. 

Young guns always bring optimism to the sport as does a fresh slate. So, as the haulers rolled into Daytona and fresh rubber gets laid down on the high banks, everyone has a bright new outlook on the season ahead. 

So, as the sun rises over a dark track on Sunday morning while the haziness starts to pass, fan flags start to rise and the seats start to fill, cars will roll off pit road while the crowd intensifies and everyone will have a grand new plan on how the 2017 season will go -- oh and it wouldn't hurt if Hans Zimmer was playing in your head, hello Days of Thunder. 

So, lets drop the hammer on 2017 and kick it off with a bang. I thank all of you who check Behind the Wall out weekly for continuing to do so. I do this because I love the sport and its a fun hobby, but it means so much more than that because I get to interact with so many other fan's because of it. So, I look forward to continuing that in 2017!

As in years past, every preview will have an intro to the week. Sometimes it is a opinion on a topic of the week that gets stuck in my head, sometimes it's just an intro on the track, and sometimes it's both. As always, I will do a short write up on the "Good, Middle, and Bad" drivers at each track. 

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Denny Hamlin- Well, it's not a huge shock to see the 2016 Daytona 500 champ on this list, but the question is can he go back to back in 500 wins? Before his 17th place finish in the Firecracker his 500 win marked five straight top ten's and three straight top fives.
• Joey Logano- You can not go wrong with either Penske driver at Daytona as both navigate the crowd very well. JoLo last won the 2015 Daytona 500 and since has finishes of 22nd, 6th, and 4th.
• Austin Dillon- Don't overlook Austin when thinking about Daytona. He is one of the most consistent drivers here in the last six races (seven career starts). He has a top five and five top ten's in those siz races and it wouldn't shock me if he competed for a win.

The Middle

• Dale Earnhardt Jr- If we just rolled all of 2016 into a ball and threw out the numbers, Junior would be in the group above. However, He was 100% healthy (to our knowledge) to start last season, He got caught up in a wreck with "Amelia" in the 500 and finished 36th. But, we all know he know's how to navigate DIS so he has just as good of chance as any to win the 2017 Daytona 500.

The Bad

• Danica Patrick- I hate talking about the "Bad" drivers at tracks especially superspeedways like Daytona. But, Danica's track record here isn't amazing past two very quality 8th place finishes. The biggest isue is she has an average running position of 20th or more in six of her nine attempts. Meaning? Well, the middle of the pack at Daytona is the worst spot to be in which leads to tough results.
• Paul Menard- Eight straight races at Daytona without a top 15 and the last time he did it was 14th. Menard has shown in the past he can run up front, but he hasn't done that much lately leading to some poor finishes.
• Kasey Kahne- The last eight for Kahen haven't been pretty either. He does have a top ten and two top 15's in that time, but that's where the feel good runs out. He has five finishes of 30th or worse in those eight which include a handful of crashes. 

Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2017

Who Will be NASCAR's Champion in 2017?

By Richard Tix

On Friday I spoke about my 2017 NASCAR Playoff predictions that included the 16 drivers I picked to make the Playoffs and how confident I felt in those picks. I also added a few wildcards that could make a splash, so if you haven't yet go check out 2017 NASCAR Playoff Predictions.

Per natural progressions its only right that next up we battle how the Playoffs will actually play out. Now, if it's hard to predict 16 of 16 drivers that will make the playoffs that makes picking how the playoffs will go almost impossible. Yet, here we are.

To be honest, I do this almost as much for me as I do for you guys. I love making these predictions and setting it in stone and seeing how my feelings change all year long. It's a long and grueling schedule and by the time the Playoffs roll around it is easy to forget what you once predicted, so alas lets get it in writing below.

So, lets break down some past Champions and then I'll take a stab at the final eight, four, and Champion of the 2017 season.

NASCAR Champions 1994-2016
Chase Era 2.0 Champions 2014-2016
Year	Driver	WIN (%)	Top 5 (%)	Top 10 (%)	Start	Fin	Laps Lead
2016	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	11 (30.6%)	16 (52.8%)	12.1	14	737
2015	Ky. Busch	5 (20%)*	12 (48%)*	16 (64%)*	8.2*	10.8*	735*
2014	Harvick	5 (13.9%)	14 (38.88%)	20 (55.55%)	9.1	12.9	2137
14-16 Avg	3 Drivers	5 Wins	12.33 Top 5's	17.3 Top 10's	9.8	12.56	1,203
Original Chase Champions 2004-2013
2013	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.7	1985
2012	Keselowski	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	23 (63.9%)	16.2	10.1	735
2011	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	9 (25.0%)	19 (52.8%)	17.7	12	913
2010	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	17 (47.2%)	23 (63.9%)	9.4	12.2	1315
2009	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	8.2	11.1	2238
2008	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	15 (41.7%)	22 (61.1%)	8.5	10.5	1959
2007	Johnson	10 (27.8%)	20 (55.6%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.8	1290
2006	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	24 (66.7%)	10.8	9.7	854
2005	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	17 (47.2%)	25 (69.4%)	12	9.9	1845
2004	Ku Busch	3 (8.3%)	10 (27.8%)	21 (58.3%)	15	12.5	746
04-12 Avg	10 Drivers	5.9 Wins	14.6 Top 5's	22.9 Top 10's	11.74	11	1388
Pre-Chase Era 1994-2003
2003	Kenseth	1 (2.8%)	11 (30.6%)	25 (69.4%)	21.3	10.2	354
2002	Stewart	3 (8.3%)	15 (41.7%)	21 (58.3%)	13.2	12.6	745
2001	Gordon	6 (16.7%)	18 (50.0%)	24 (66.7%)	9.5	11	2320
2000	B Labonte	4 (11.8%)	19 (55.9%)	24 (70.6%)	11.6	7.4	465
1999	Jarrett	4 (11.8%)	24 (70.6%)	29 (85.3%)	13.2	6.8	1061
1998	Gordon	7 (20.6%)	18 (52.9%)	21 (61.8%)	7.4	12.9	1319
1997	Gordon	10 (31.2%)	22 (68.8%)	23 (71.9%)	9.4	9.6	1647
1996	T Labonte	2 (6.5%)	21 (67.7%)	24 (77.4%)	10.6	8.2	973
1995	Gordon	7 (22.6%)	17 (54.8%)	23 (74.2%)	5	9.5	2610
1994	Earnhardt	4 (12.9%)	20 (64.5%)	25 (80.6%)	15.3	8	1013
94-03 Avg	10 Drivers	4.8 Wins	18.5 Top 5's	23.9 Top 10's	11.65	9.62	1250.7

*Percentages based on the 25 races Ky. Busch ran in 2015

If we learned anything in three years it was that three years would not create enough statistics to give us any ideas of trends by NASCAR Champions. Year one went pretty smooth (Harvick was strong all year and won), year two a short seasoned driver won (though one of the best drivers, Kyle missed 11 races skewing stats), and last year JJ won in a pretty surprising fashion (some of the least impressive Championship stats we have seen). So, adding those things together and we have more questions then answers after three years into the newest Chase Era.

Well, now the era enters it's 2.0 version after NASCAR switched up the points system. Sure, the eliminations will be the same, but drivers will get to carry segment win points into the playoffs with them giving them more incentive to have a great regular season.

What I expect to see is regular season points do really help the strongest regular season drivers in the playoff, but the playoff still leaves plenty of "out of left field" moments to be had since a win still advances you automatically.

Through three years the statistics have started to sculpt the idea that Champions can win with less stats. Is that because it is easier or because everyone now can use so many different strategies to get there that stats can be misleading?

To me, it seems NASCAR included the points for segment wins into the 2017 points system so the strongest cars all year long (26 regular season races) have a better shot during the playoffs of advancing. It will not rule out the shocking win that automatically advances drivers, but it might even out the difference between old school and new school points systems a bit.

On thing is for sure, only time will tell how well the newest points structure will effect racing. We will see how it all plays out in 2017 and some extra data can be added to this elimination era and maybe trends can be found. In the end, this era maybe the hardest to put simple trends on because so much more goes into how strategies work even if NASCAR is trying to move back towards the regular season meaning more.


2017 Chase Predictions

Final Eight


Nothing too shocking here as Penske, JGR, and HMS make up the majority. Too be honest the one I am most worried about is Truex since Furniture Row is expanding into two race teams this year (No. 77). But, by the time the Playoffs roll around things should be smoothed out leaving only the surprise winner or terrible round to dismantle this final eight.

Drivers: Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, and Chase Elliott

Final Four


Three eliminations already have taken place (four if you include the Playoffs being the first). What are the chances of having all of these right? Last year I picked JoLo (correct), Jimmie Johnson (correct), Brad Keselowski (incorrect), and Denny Hamlin (incorrect). When it comes to picking Penske and JGR drivers, its a shot in the barrel and I went the wrong way. This year HMS is missing out (making this an easy target to be wrong) and only one JGR car (which we have seen hasn't happened often). These four were all fast in 2016 and could leave us with a zero Chevy title race in Miami (Ford EcoBoost would be a happy camper if this were the final four come race 36).

Drivers: Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski

2017 Champion


Last year I predicted JoLo to win his first title if he didn't cause a ruckus like what happened in 2015 with Matt Kenseth. Well, he did stay pretty darn clean and was still short of a Championship -- that's just how this format can play out. I'm going back to the well on this prediction this year and sticking with Logano. So many guys are hitting their strides in NASCAR right now and one of those guys is JoLo. I think a Championship is bound to happen for Joey, so why not this year?

Driver: Joey Logano


The fun in all of this? Anyone with a bit of a clue of who is in NASCAR and how the format works could give you a list and have just as much a chance at getting all the round right as I do. Their is no right or wrong answer to the question of "who will be NASCAR's Champion in 2017?" So, who do you have in the final four and who is your 2017 Champion?