Chasing the Chase in 2014: Part Two

Win-less Drivers After 23 Races into the 2014 Season

By Richard Tix

After 19 races in the 2014 NASCAR Behind the Wall took its first in depth look at the win less drivers who were looking for a Chase spot. Because I think most season's we will not have 16 plus winners, each season some racing in NASCAR will still come down to points. Take this year for example, even with Aric Almirola stealing his first win at a rain shortened Firecracker 400 and AJ Allmendinger getting a road course win at Watkins Glenn we still only have 12 winners through 23 races.

So, three races left in NASCAR's regular season and 4 spots up for grabs. Realistically I see this as a 7 driver points race (Kenseth, Newman, Bowyer, Biffle, Kahne, Larson, and Dillon). In my opinion these are the only guys that can get into the Chase on points alone. Now, that isn't to say guys like Vickers, McMurray, or Paul Menards couldn't win and get in, but I just don't see these guys getting in off points alone. 

Lets get down to the nitty gritty when it comes to points racing and who will get in. Each driver has a different outlook at the remaining 3 races. Kenseth, Newman, and Bowyer should be looking at just having great finishes week to week (Bowyer is up 12 points on Biffle right now and 21 points on Kahne in 17th). Biffle, Kahne, and the two rookies need a mix of great points races, which still might not be enough. So, these four drivers will be pushing for a win in the next three races.

In my last article (Chasing the Chase in 2014) I had predicted Kenseth (win or points), Newman (points), and Bowyer (points) would all get in. I also predicted Kahne and Smoke would get in on a win by the Chase. The unfortunate accident that took the life of Kevin Ward Jr has left Smoke on the sidelines for personal reason and therefor not having a chance at the Chase. 

Also, since then we went from 11 winners to 12 winners which took a spot away from one of these drivers trying to get in on points.

I will stick by my statement in the last article and say Kenseth, Newman, Bowyer, and Kahne get in. But lets take a quick look at each driver and the remaining three races.

Matt Kenseth

Kenseth is a practical lock for the Chase in 2014. Even after a rough race at Michigan Kenseth has 709 points (most of any non winner). The next closest driver is Ryan Newman who is still 30 points back. Kenseth also has a 49 point lead over Greg Biffle who is 16th in the Chase Standings right now. Safe to say, win or not, Kenseth will be apart of the Chase this season. 

Coming Up:

Kenseth has 3 career wins at Bristol Motor Speedway. His most recent win at Bristol was last year in this same race the race this weekend. Earlier this year he finished 13th. In his last 10 at Bristol he has 7 top 10's and 4 top 5's. In his last 14 races at Atlanta he hasn't finished higher than 13th and has 9 top 10's, but he has yet to win there. Richmond statistically in his career is his worst of the three remaining races. Yet, his last four starts at Richmond have been pretty good (5, 7, 6, and 5th earlier this year). So, the focus wont be getting into the Chase, but rather getting on a hot streak going into the Chase for the #20.


Ryan Newman

The further we go down this list the more complicated things become for these drivers. Newman has been very consistent this season but has never really been a threat to win, or even a top 5 threat. However, he still has enough quality finishes to be the second guy getting in on points (if the season had ended after MIS). He has a 19 point lead on 16th (Biffle) which is he keeps finishing consistently should be enough. But, if a driver below him in points wins a race the points squeeze will become tight for the #31.

Coming Up:

Newman has never won at Bristol in his 25 career starts. He also has an average finish position of 17th. On top of those stats, he also only has one top 10 in his last 5 starts at BMS. The small good news, he normally finishes inside the top 25 so it shouldn't completely kill his day. Atlanta isn't much better for Ryan. In 21 career starts he only has 7 top 10's. The plus side, he has 7 career poles (6 straight), but those days are long gone and were in his hay day from 2003-2007. The last race of the regular season is where Newman might need to get it done at. It is the only track in the last three that he has a win at, and in 25 career races he has 15 career top 10's (Including 4 of the last 6). I still think he will get in on points, but it could be a tight one if he slips up at Bristol or Atlanta.


Clint Bowyer

Bowyer is only two points back for Newman, which means he is 17 points up on 16th place Greg Biffle. He is in a good spot to make the Chase off points, but not great. Bowyer really had a slow start to the 2014 season which put him in a huge hole, but recently he has started to climb out of it. He is a guy that I do think can still get in on points and will hang on.

Coming Up:

In 17 races at Bristol Bowyer finishes in the top 10 about half the time (8 times), but has never won. Since he has been with MWR (5 races) he has never finished worse then 15th and has three top 10's (two top 5's). Lately, when it comes to Atlanta you can almost count Bowyer out. In his last 6 starts he has one top 10 and the rest of his 5 finishes have been outside the top 22. Just like Newman, Richmond is Bowyers best track left. In 17 starts he has 9 top 10's, 3 top 5's, and 2 wins. Earlier this year he had trouble with his car and ended up finishing 43rd, so I see a big bounce back this time around.


Greg Biffle

I am still going to stick to my guns that Biffle won't make the Chase (I mean that's the fun in predictions, right?). He is currently the last guy into the Chase right now. Biffle is only up 9 points on Kasey Kahne, but both drivers have been coming on strong late in the regular season. Biffle missed his best shot at winning this past weekend at Michigan, but that doesn't mean he can't get in.

Coming Up:

Biffle has only one top 10 in his last 6 starts at Bristol, but before that he strung together 4 straight. He doesn't have a win at Bristol in 23 starts, but could put in a good points day. Atlanta isn't that impressive for Biffle either, as he has 9 top 10's, 3, top 5's, and zero wins in 19 career races. However, he does normally find a way to finish in the top 15, which wont kill his points. Richmond is a different story for Biffle. I think this will be the race that truly makes or breaks Biffles Chase chances. In his last 15, 15!, starts at Richmond he has 1 top 10. That dates all the way back to 2007. Now, maybe you are the kind of person that says "well he is due," which is fine, but numbers are not on his side.


Kasey Kahne

Kahne has has more top 10's in his last 9 races (5) then he has in his first 14 (4). He has come on strong when he most needs it. I still think that he may need a win in the remaining 3 races to get in, but as I mentioned before in Biffles section, the door could swing wide open if Biffle missteps at Richmond. That would bring this Chase to the Chase right down to the wire. But, lets look at the next three and see where Kahne could win.

Coming Up:

Kasey does have a win at Bristol, in fact it was just three races ago. Last season he won Bristol the first time around and then finished runner up the 2nd time around. Earlier this season he finished 8th and in his 5 BMS races with Hendrick he only has 1 finish outside the top 10. Atlanta on the other hand has been a feast or famine track for Kahne. He has 2 career wins, but also in his last 4 he only has one finish inside the top 30. I personally like his chance's, but that's a total shot in the dark. Richmond is another track he has won at, but not since 2005. In his last 12 starts there he only has 2 top 10's (lucky in his case, one of them was with Hendrick). With HMS his worst finish has been 21st and the rest have all been in the top 15, but I don't see a win at Richmond this season.


Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson

Both of these rookies have an outside shot at getting into the 2014 Chase. Dillon is 22 points back of Greg Biffle and after a fiery finish at MIS Larson has dropped to 24 points back. Before that mishap at MIS Larson looked like he could make a push at the Chase. Don't get me wrong, Larson still can, but now it is an uphill battle where as before he was on top of the hill already (in the Chase). Dillon on the other hand has been good, just not great yet. I don't think he will win nor make it in on points, but that doesn't take away from a good season. If it were last season he would be 13th in points and just missing the Chase to guys who have a win and get the wild card spots.


Some Other Chase Articles:

• Chasing the Chase in 2014: Part One
• Predicting a NASCAR Champion
• 2014 Chase Predictions 
• 13 Down 13 to Go
• The Fight for Points
• NASCAR's New Era

2014 Week 20 Chase Standings

Chase Standings after the First 20 Races

By Richard Tix

NASCAR is leaving Indianapolis Motor Speedway behind and it was not a surprise winner, instead it was Jeff Gordon winning a series best 5th time at IMS. So, we have no new winners but there was a small shake up in the Chase standings. Who is in? Who is out if the regular season ended today?

Race to the Chase Standings
Rank	Driver	Wins	Points	Pts Back	Last Week
1	Brad Keselowski	3	666		1
2	Jimmie Johnson	3	628		2
3	Jeff Gordon	2	717		7
4	Dale Earnhardt Jr	2	693		3
5	Carl Edwards	2	603		4
6	Joey Logano	2	591		5
7	Kevin Harvick	2	565		6
8	Kyle Busch	1	609		8
9	Denny Hamlin	1	**497		9
10	Aric Almirola	1	496		10
11	Kurt Busch	1	456		11
12	Matt Kenseth	0	661		12
13	Ryan Newman	0	606		13
14	Clint Bowyer	0	577		14
15	Kyle Larson	0	562		17
16	Austin Dillon	0	559		16
17	Kasey Kahne	0	555	-4	19
18	Paul Menard	0	551	-7	15
19	Greg Biffle	0	550	-9	18
20	Brian Vickers	0	532	-27	20
21	Tony Stewart	0	529	-30	21
22	Marcus Ambrose	0	511	-48	22
23	Jamie McMurray	0	499	-60	23
24	AJ Allmendinger	0	466	-93	26
25	Martin Truex Jr	0	465	-94	24
26	Casey Mears	0	455	-104	25
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	0	397	-162	28
28	Danica Patrick	0	382	-177	27

*Pts Back= Points back from the last Chase spot

*Last Week= Where they were in the standings last week.
** Updated 7/29: Denny Hamlin and team were docked 75 points by NASCAR. He had 572 total points before. He did not lose any ground in the new Chase standings though (still 1 point ahead of Almirola). 

Kasey Kahne and Paul Menard are the big movers this week. Kahne moved from 19th up to 17th and the first driver outside the top 16. Meanwhile, Menard moved from a spot in the Chase (15th) all the way down to 18th and 7 points out.

The most important move of the week? Kyle Larson went from tied with Austin Dillon for the final Chase spot to 15th. Larson is now up 3 on Dillon (who is in 16th) and 7 up on Kahne in 17th. Without this new system no one would even know who Kurt Busch is this year. He would be 103 points out of 16th in the standings, which is a must win spot to be in.

Chasing the Chase in 2014

Win-less Drivers After 19 Races into the 2014 Season

By Richard Tix

NASCAR left New Hampshire behind with Brad Keselowski winning his third race of the season and leaving us wondering who else will win in the next 7 races to get into the Chase? 11 drivers have locked themselves into the Chase with a win in the first 19 races but some big names still remain out there.

Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, and Greg Biffle all have yet to win this season (as well as a few others like Paul Menard, but those aren't as surprising). Some guys don't have to worry (Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman) because they are almost a lock as guys who get in on points. But in the next few races pressure is going to start ramping up for drivers like Kasey Kahne and Tony Stewart who either need to get super hot and improve in the points standings or go the easy route (easier said then done) and win a race.

So NASCAR Behind the Wall is going to take advantage of this NASCAR off week and take a look at some of the win less drivers as we go down the home stretch. Looking at if a driver can win in the last 7 or if they need to start points racing (which I said before the year how important points would still be in The Fight for Points or NASCAR's New Era). 

Matt Kenseth (Currently 4th in points)

Matt Kenseth is easily the safest driver of this group. Most fans agreed that he wouldn't put up as many wins as he did last year, but almost all the same fans would have also said he would have at least one win by now. Kenseth has the third best average finish so far on the season adding 7 top 5's (third most) and 12 top 10's (tied for third most). It would take a complete melt down for Kenseth to not get into the Chase (or some kind of crazy season turn seeing 5 different non winners in the next 7 races). 

As for upcoming races, Kenseth only has 6 wins in his 170 starts at the remaining 7 tracks. He has 3 career wins at Bristol (last one in 2013), 2 career wins at Michigan (last one was 2006), and 1 career win at Richmond (last one was 2002). Some places like Pocono and Watkins Glenn Kenseth can all but be ruled out of for a win, but he does have a good shot at Bristol and Richmond. Kenseth has a current streak of four top 10's at Richmond so he could finally notch his first win there since 2002. Win or not, Kenseth is in the Chase.

Conclusion: He is in, win or not.

Ryan Newman (Currently 7th in points)

Newman switched teams from SHR in 2013 to RCR in 2014 when SHR brought in Harvick and Kurt Busch leaving him no room to stay. Some thought it could be a fresh new start and he may get it back on track (I was one of those people, even thinking he could have a better season then Kevin Harvick). In my defense, I did mean that as an end of the season standings (or rather, who goes the farthest in the Chase) so I still have time. So far though, I also am not wrong as Ryan is having a pretty good season. The hard part is, that's all it is, pretty good. He hasn't had a lot of dominate days but he also isn't having devastating days so he is sticking right in there.

Newman does have five wins at the remaining 7 tracks but other then his win at Indy last year his most recent was Michigan in 2004. Most season's he has found a way to win one race (since racing full time he only has 3 years where he didn't notch a win in his 12 full time seasons). He should have circled on his list Indy, Pocono (11.5 career average finish and four straight top 10's), and Richmond (8th, 15th, 8th, 15th, 3rd, and 8th in his last 6). 

Conclusion: I don't think he will get a win before the Chase but I do think with so many decent tracks left he will get in on points.

Clint Bowyer (Currently 10th in points)

Bowyers season didn't get off to a great start after a controversial end to 2013. He started slow but in recent weeks he has started to find his groove with MWR again. He has 5 top 10's in the last 7 races and just had one of his best runs of the season at Loudon. The question is, where will he go from here? Before getting shut out on wins in 2013 he had three straight years with at least 1 win (two of them were multiple win years) and 5 years out of 7. It seem's as though he has taken a step back at MWR after having back to back years where he finished the season with an average finish of 11.9 or better. 

Before I get into much when breaking down the tracks, lets just rule out Atlanta right away. In 13 starts he only has 5 top 10's and his last three are 36th, 27th, and 39th.

Onto the rest of the remaining tracks. Bowyer has only won at one remaining track before the Chase. That track would be Richmond where the 2013 "itch" controversy began. He has 2 career Richmond wins and has an average finish there of 12.0. So, the track that ended his season in 2013 maybe the one he needs the most in 2014.

Conclusion: Bowyer gets into the Chase. He has an average finish of 15.04 on the remaining 7 tracks. He is just getting it going so I think he will steal a points spot in the Chase. 

Paul Menard (Currently 11th in points)

Paul Menard has already matched his total's in top 5's and top 10's from last season (3 and 9 respectively). With one more top 5 in 2014 he will tie his career single season best of 4 (he already has tied his best in top 10's with 9). Menard has never made it into the Chase and coming into the year it didn't look like it helped his chances too much (other then the fact that 16 guys get in, so everyone's chance go up). But after 19 races Menard is sitting pretty well at 11th in points. With 11 winners on the season being the fourth guy in the standings not having a win is a huge motivate for him. The question is, can he hold on?

When looking at the upcoming races it will be hard to judge Menard. Obviously when you have a lot of seasons that result in a 18th place finish in the standings and only 1 career Sprint Cup win it is hard to say when he could get a win. Luckily for Paul his lone win came at Indy which is next up on the NASCAR schedule. In his last four he has finishes of 14th, 1st, 14th, and 12th with the win coming in 2011. 

Pocono and Watkins Glenn are pretty much out of the equation for him as he has two top 10's in 25 races combined. The other tracks circled on his list should be Michigan and Bristol. In his last four races at MIS he has finishes of 9th, 14th, 4th and 4th. At Bristol he has finishes of 5th, 30th, 10th, 10th, 9th, 6th, and 21st recently. So, a win can be had by Menard but what he really needs to focus on are really good runs at Indy, MIS, Bristol, and Richmond where he has a good track record and then find ways to get average finishes at the other tracks so he can contend on points. 

Conclusion: I am on the fence with Menard. I think in the next 7 races he could struggle leaving him on the edge of getting in with points. If I had to choose 16, I have him missing the Chase.

Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson (Currently tied for 14th)

The next two spots on the list go to two 2014 rookies (Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson). I am joining them together on this list because they don't have a large track record at each of the remaining tracks.

Dillon's season started out with a bang (well actually his preseason) when it was announced he would run the #3 for RCR. This came with a lot of controversy and a young driver picking up a lot of haters just because his "pop pop" was part of Dale Earnhardt's glory days in the #3 and he was going to bring back the number. Then, like 2013, a surprise driver won the Pole for the Daytona 500- Dillon. He has cooled off a bit since his hot start. On the season he only has 1 top 5 and 2 top 10's (Both of which were at Daytona). So, we have witnessed he can run at resrictor plate tracks, but can he do it everywhere else? Well he may not be blazing trails when it comes to other types of tracks, but he has notched 8 top 15's total this year along with 15 top 20's.

Guess who has more top 15's, Dillon or Larson? If you guessed Larson you would be.....wrong. Larson has 14 top 20's compared to Dillons 15 but Larson has shown more flashes of greatness so far in his rookie season. Including his runner up finish at Fontana, Larson has 3 other top 5's (4 total). After going on a 3 race skid recently he turned it around with a 3rd place finish at New Hampshire with an impressive finish.

NASCAR will visit 4 tracks in the remaining 7 before the Chase that they have already been to this season. At Pocono Larson bested Dillon with a 5th place finish (Dillon 17th). At Michigan Larson bested Dillon again with a 8th place finish (Dillon 30th). At Bristol the two had a very close race but Larson nudged Dillon with a 10th place finish while Dillon finished 11th. Last, Larson once again bested Dillon with a 16th place finish (Dillon 27th) and started up front at Richmond.

Conclusion: I would love to see a rookie get in and throughout the season I have become and even bigger fan of his then I was when he was in Nationwide, but I think both guys come up just short of the Chase.


Greg Biffle (Currently 16th in points)

Greg Biffles season has not gone according to plan so far. After a strong 2012 campaign he lost some ground in 2013 and this season hasn't gone too much better. He currently has only two top 5's and five top 10's and his worse average finish -17.0- since 2007 (18.5).

Biffle has 5 wins total at the remaining 7 tracks, but really its all at Michigan (4 of the 5). He has a couple of decent tracks left statistically but he most likely needs a win (not points). So, Michigan is Biffles big race on the calender. Earlier this year he had a dissapointing 20th place finish when all of Roush Racing looked to have a lack of power. He will need that figured out by MIS to get back on track. He won in 2012 and then the very next MIS race in 2013 so he has done it recently, but it will all hinge on RFR. He has run well at Indy an Pocono lately so he has a small shot there, but I's saying its swing or miss all based on MIS.

Conclusion: Biffle misses the Chase. I think it all comes down to Michigan and I think RFR still wont have enough. Right now he is only 5 spots out of 16th (the last spot), but a win by a new driver means he gets bumped down even farther.


Kasey Kahne (Currently 17th in points)

Kahne's season has been all over the place thus far. At the beginning of the season I just couldn't figure out what was wrong with this team as he struggled even at tracks he normally is strong at. But Michigan's 5th place finish started to turn things around from him and the #5 team. Maybe they're starting to click but will it be too late? Kahne, like Biffle, is still in a spot to get in on points but every new winner NASCAR has just cuts down Kahne's chance. So, he most likely needs to find a win before the Chase starts.

Kahne has 7 wins in his career at the remaining 7 tracks left on the schedule, including two in 2013 (Pocono and Bristol). His last four at Bristol leave Kahne fans some hope he can win before the Chase (9th, 1st, 5th, and 10th). He also has back to back top 10's at Michigan recently (7th and 5th). So a win is very plausible, but it is not easy to win in NASCAR today. He still has a shot to make it on points because I think he could get on a hot run at any moment, but will the moment come to late?

Conclusion: I think he gets in. Its a long shot at this point because he has been up and down this year, but he has a shot at winning and has some decent tracks coming up on the schedule. If he doesn't win his quality finishes should get him in.


Tony Stewart (Currently 19th in points)

Tony Stewart is the wild card of the bunch. He has yet to have a season where he did not notch at least 1 win in his entire career. Most seasons, even if he has a slow start he finds a way to get hot during the summer. Well so far it hasn't happened yet. Will it happen? Will Smoke win before the Chase? Heck, will he win at all in 2014? Go back a year or two and you would be called a crazy man to even ask those questions, but here we are 19 races into the season and its starting to creep up on peoples minds.

The season started and I had no doubt in my mind he would bounce back and make the Chase - and I am not even a Smoke fan (nor a hater). I am going to stick by my prediction still, but obviously it wont be a sure thing like I once thought. I think he will find a win in the next 7 races to give him an automatic Chase bid.

Conclusion: Well, you just read it above. I think Smoke will find a way to win in the next 7 and get in. Its a long shot (scary saying that about Smoke) but he still has it in him.


Best of the Rest

Brian Vickers is actually one spot ahead of Tony Stewart in the current standings (18th) and has a 5 point lead over him. But, I dont think Vickers will pull off a win in the remaining races (if anything it will be his MWR teammate). He may make a good run at it but I think he will come up short.

Marcus Ambrose also should be talked about (20th in points) only because of how well he has run at Watkins Glenn (winning in 2011 and 2012). I however am going to stick by my preseason prediction's that a driver like himself or AJ Allmendinger will not steal a road course win this year.

Speaking of AJ, he has shown in Nationwide that he can compete on the road courses. Actually he had a pretty good run earlier this year at Sonoma. I will stick to mu guns with him as well though, a driver will not steal a win at the road courses.

Jamie McMurray has had a good season thus far but some bad luck has been getting in the way of even better results. He has too many tough luck finishes of 30th or better to really have a legitamet shot at a spot by points. Over his career his best tracks have been plate tracks and NASCAR doesn't have one left until the Chase.

Martin Truex Jr is on the short list of drivers that could win at Watkins Glenn. He has struggled much of the season but he has done well at the Glenn. In 8 starts he has 5 top 10's and 3 top 5's. We know he can turn right, but it could be his only real shot the rest of the way.


Final Conclusion

11 drivers already have a win so far in 2014 and in the next 7 races I only see one or two new winners. I have predicted that Smoke gets a win and gets in (only way he gets in) and I think Matt Kenseth has a shot at a win (but will get in either way). So that is 13 guys in the Chase.

As mentioned above I also have Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer getting in on points with some quality runs in the next 7. So 15 of 16 spots are taken up and guys like Menard, Larson, Dillon, Kahne, and Biffle are all still trying to get in.

I think both rookies come up just short in the first try at making the Chase, but it wont be without a fight. I think Larson could compete and make it very interesting in the last regular season race of the season (Richmond) but in the end I think some of the poor finishes will out weigh the top 10's and hurt him in the points.

So the last spot goes to Kasey Kahne. Kahne is also a guy I could see winning a race in the remaining 7 races, but I truly think he will get in on having a great "points run" down the stretch.

I really think Richmond will be must see racing. If Stewart, Kahne, Larson, Dillon, and Biffle all still do not have wins everyone will be trying to get to the front. Not only that but some points positions maybe open for the taking especially right on the bubble. It will be fun to see how this first "New Era" Chase will work out.

Thanks for checking out NASCAR Behind the Wall. Who do you have as your 16 drivers in the Chase? Will a non winner win in the final 7 races?