2017 NASCAR Week 15: Michigan

FireKeepers Casino 400

Michigan International Speedway

By Richard Tix

We are at race 15 of the 2017 season which means we're closing in on the final ten races of the regular season. With that in mind (and Blaney's first Cup win still fresh on our minds), let's take a look at how crazy the playoff picture is shaping up to be.

As most of you know 16 drivers get into the NASCAR Playoffs and anyone with a win (that isn't a cucumber, um, I mean encumbered) gets an automatic spot as long as they're in the top 30 (everyone will be). Already this year we have had surprise and/or first time wins by guys like Newman, Stenhouse Jr, A. Dillon, and Ryan Blaney which clouds the Playoff picture. At this point even Kurt Busch's Daytona 500 win looks like a surprising one since he hasn't spent much time up front since that race one win.

That leaves us with ten 2017 winners currently and only nine of those win's count for the playoffs (Joey Logano's win was penalized and does not count as an automatic playoff lock). So, after 14 races we're left with only seven spots open for the taking.

Seven seems like a decent number until you start looking at the drivers without a win. Still win less in 2017 are guys like Harvick, Logano (win doesn't count), Ky. Busch, Elliott, Hamlin, Earnhardt Jr, Kenesth, Jones, McMurray, Kahne, and Suarez. At this point I don't thing guys like Suarez, Jones, and Kahne to win, but Jones has shown the speed (similar to what Blaney showed previous to his win) so it isn't out of the question he takes a trip to VL as a rookie.

Above I listed 20 drivers if you include winners and the list of key names that haven't won yet. That isn't even mentioning A.J. Allmendinger, which get's to the next point of previewing how crazy this regular season finish could be.

If just looking at the drivers and wins wasn't enough to spotlight how fun 2017 has been, taking a closer look at the tracks left will really get your head spinning with "what if's."

This weekend at MIS poses an interesting spot for guys without a win (as will the same MIS stop in August). Last year Kyle Larson got his first Cup win at MIS in the Fall and a well known win less driver by the name of Chase Elliott finished second twice. MIS could be the spring board into full out insanity when it comes to the Playoff picture if Elliott or a guy like Jones wins this Sunday (or August). The 77/78 camp has been very fast all year and MIS can be won by fuel mileage and HP so its not out of the question as I stated above.

After MIS is Sonoma, Sonoma isn't a lock for "Dinger," but it has given us wins by Smoke, Bowyer, and Kahne since 2009. It can be a wildcard, but really hasn't played out that way much as of late (past Smoke's last win last year).

Another stop at Pocono is left as well as Indianapolis (could be fuel mileage) and some short tracks (always a small chance). But, the two biggest races which could be wildcards not mentioned yet are Daytona and Watkins Glenn. We have seen it time and time again that Daytona can open it's hand to a wildcard winner and spring someone into the Playoffs. Daytona brings in names like McMurray, Bayne, Ragan, and Almirola (doubtful to be back by then, INJ). Stakes will be high when NASCAR runs the Firecracker 400 because drivers know they all have a shot during the closing laps.

As always, the biggest question mark on the schedule still is WG and if A.J. Allmendinger can dominate and win. Once WG is over we will have a four race sprint to the playoffs so it could turn the standings into a wildfire depending on who wins at Daytona and WG.

As you can see even the simplest scenario of AJ winning WG and someone surprising at Daytona creates a ton of chaos and would give us 11 different winners (not even including the races between them). With all this considered it will be a fun finish to the season even before the playoffs start and have drivers and fans of the 1, 4, 11, 14, 18, 20, 22, 77, 88, etc on the edge of their seats.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Chase Elliott- Small sample size alert: Chase Elliott has a career average finish of 2nd here at MIS. Yup, that's in only two career starts, but this has been one of his most promising tracks to get his first career win at.
• Joey Logano- JoLo might need a good finish this weekend more than anyone and MIS is the spot to get it. He currently has eight straight top tens here, including two wins.
• Kyle Larson- MIS, the home of Larson's first career Cup win. Last year Larson win here and finished third. I think he builds on it again this year.

The Middle

• Matt Kenseth- Kenseth has a long track record of running well at MIS. Part of that mixed with the old RFR dominance here, but even after that he still has a win since joining JGR. Still, in his eight races with JGR at MIS he only has three top tens, but seven top 15's.

The Bad

• Kyle Busch- MIS just isn't Rowdy's track. Last time I said something like that and tagged Kyle in it I was blocked, no seriously, just over something not even directed at him but at fans... After I was blocked, he went on to figure that track out and run well there (you're welcome). That track was Kansas, so I now fully expect Kyle to figure out MIS and dominate it (though I can't tag him on Twitter this time).
• Clint Bowyer- Three straight finishes of 23rd or worse (two of them in the 40's), but to give him a break two of those three were with HScott. Before that stretch he ran pretty well while with MWR, so he could have a big bounce back this weekend.
• Ryan Newman- In Newman's last ten races here he has only two top tens (both 8th's). 

About the Track: Michigan

Track Stats

• Cale Yarborough won the first race at MIS in 1969 and also two of the first three.
• The furthest back a driver has started a race from and won was 32nd in 2009 by Mark Martin.
• A MIS race has been won 20 times from the Pole position including the last race in 2015 at MIS by Matt Kenseth and the first stop in 2016 by Joey Logano.
• A MIS race has been won from the pole five times in the last eight races
• Most cautions was 10 in 2006 and the race was won by Matt Kenseth. This is also the only MIS race that had double digit cautions in 89 races.
• David Pearson has the most career MIS wins with 9. Cale Yarborough follows with 8
• Cale Yarborough has the most top 5 finishes with 21 followed by Richard Petty and Jeff Gordon (19).
• Mark Martin has the most career top 10's with 31, followed by Bill Elliott with 29.
• David Pearson has 10 career Poles at MIS (Cup leading)

Track Info

• Length: 2 miles
• Banking
• Turns: 18 degrees
• Start/Finish: 12 degrees
• Backstretch: 5 degrees