2015 NASCAR Buy or Sell: Kyle Busch

Buy or Sell Kyle Busch in 2015

By Richard Tix

It is getting to be that time of year again in the NASCAR world, the time of year where Chase dreams are won and lost week by week. Many drivers have already locked there Chase spot up with a win during the 2015 season, but Kyle Busch has more work to do.

Even with two wins, he still is not locked into the 2015 Chase. Why is that? Well, because Chase eligible drivers have to be in the top 30 of the points standings when the Chase hits the schedule. After missing a bunch of races after his XFINITY wreck at Daytona to start the year, Kyle was set back substantially in the points standings. 

That being said, lets look at the reasons you should buy into his chance at the Chase and even winning the Chase and the reason's you should not buy in.

Reason's to Buy In

• In just two races back after missing 11 to start the season, Kyle Busch already has two wins. Those two wins come in the last 3 races so he is starting to get on a roll. During that roll he closed the gap on Cole Whitt in the points standings and is now just 87 points out of 30th.
• Cole Whitt: That's reason two...The guys between he and 30th position are Whitt, Gilliland, Moffitt, Bowman, and Annett. Between all of these guys they total 86 races and only one top 10 and only four top 15's (almost all at the Daytona 500). Kyle only needed seven races to notch two wins, two top 5's, and three top 10's (four top 15's). So, the competition isn't very stiff on his was to the top 30.
• NASCAR has 8 races left before the 2015 Chase starts which means Kyle has 8 races to catch up. NASCAR heads to NHMS, Indianapolis, Pocono, Watkins Glen, Michigan, Britstol, Darlington, and Richmond. He has wins at 6 of the 8 remaining tracks (No wins at Indy or Pocono). At those 6 he has a total of 14 career wins at the Cup level. He may not have a win at Indy yet, but he does have an average finish of 10.6 there. If he can avoid bad finishes at Pocono (18.3 avg finish) and Michigan (20 avg finish) and pull off another win or two he should lock himself into the top 30 with ease. At the same 8 final tracks Kyle has an avg finish of 14th or better at 6 of them.
• The biggest reason to tune into the hype train that is Kyle Busch making the Chase and maybe even a run at the title? Kyle just know's how to win. He is now up to 31 career wins at the young age of 30 (yes, more wins then years old). Of current drivers only four are in front of him for total wins (all older: Gordon, Johnson, Stewart, and Kenseth). At a current pace he wins 8.3% of the races he is a part of. So, between the simple fact he know's how to win at this level and that he has 14 career wins at the next 8 tracks it is easy to see him winning at least once before the Chase starts.

Reason's to Sell

• Missing 11 races put Kyle Busch in a huge hole to come back from. The more wins he has the easier each step is, but if he doesn't win in the next 8 races he will have to stay very consistent throughout. I believe he has to have an average finish of about 17th the rest of the way (Courtesy of PJ Walsh FantasyNASCARPreview.com) to get to the top 30. Kyle Busch does have a career average finish of 15.3, but with this much pressure any misstep will create a larger hole. This hole is the biggest reason to not buy into Kyle Busch coming back in time. Can it be done? Sure, but it wont be easy and each week will be a roller coaster. 
• Kyle Busch's track record. Even if Kyle gets to the Chase, will he actually compete? It would take a hot run to get into the Chase so the easy answer is yes, he will make a run. But, in his career Kyle hasn't exactly been the closer. When the Chase wraps up he finds himself much farther out of the points then when the Chase started. Can he actually close?
• On that same note, Kyle Busch has been known more has a regular season Champion then a playoff champion. In 2013 I thought he was turning the corner after finishing 4th in points, but then last year luck got in the way and he got left out of the final 8 after Dega. With the new Chase format anything can happen and he could be out in the first round.
• 8 races, 8 races are left. Anything can happen in that time including just a few "wrong place, wrong time" type deals. If he gets into trouble in a few races then that average finish he needs will start going back up. If it starts climbing will the stress get to him? A season long stress of trying to win and get into the top 30 is nothing compared to an 8 race pressure cooker. Will Kyle keep his composure is something does happen? He has a past track record of sometimes letting his emotion's get the best of him. Pressure week by week to make the right calls will hold a huge piece of Kyle Busch's Chase chances.