2015 NASCAR Buy or Sell: Kasey Kahne

Buy or Sell Kahne's 2015 Chase Chances

By Richard Tix

Week 20 (19 races in)

The regular season is quickly winding down so NASCAR Behind the Wall has added a Buy or Sell article (not every week, but when fitting). Last week we took a look at Kyle Busch and his Chase chances (and then title chances if you thought he would get in). Well, he went out and won his third race in four starts. The motion has now turned into many fans "Buying" into the idea he will make the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase.

Unlike Kyle, Kasey Kahne isn't heading into Indianapolis Motor Speedway on a hot streak. Right now he is 12th in the total points standings, but when it comes to the Chase he sits 13th. He is 13th without counting in Kyle Busch (who will automatically jump him if he gets into the top 30 in points (currently 33rd). 

So, if you count in Kyle in, Kahne is 14th out of 16th  in the points and without a win in 2015 which legitimately puts him on the bubble for the Chase. So, lets take a look at why you should buy into his Chase chance's and also why you should not. In the end, the decision is up to you.

Reason's to Buy In

• We are talking about a driver for Hendrick Motorsports, what more do you need to buy in? We have seen time and time again in the last few years that HMS has some of the best engines in NASCAR right now. 
• Kahne has one at least one race in four straight seasons. He has won at least one race during every full time season with HMS. He has also won at least one race in 8 of his 11 full time season's. So, statistics say he is due to get a win, but will it come before the Chase?
• Kahne still has time (7 races). Last year Kahne won the second to last race before the Chase to lock himself in (Atlanta). In the next 7 races he has a career total of 5 wins and has won at 4 of the 7 tracks. 
• The biggest reason to buy in? If the Chase started this weekend he would already be locked in. Really, a Chase spot is Kahne's to lose right now. As it stands today, he is 36 points ahead of the 16th driver (Aric Almirola) in the Chase Standings which means three other drivers are technically on the bubble before him (Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, and Aric Almirola).

Reason's to Sell

• When, not if, Kyle Busch gets into the top 30 in points, it turns the Chase standings upside down. The WC (Wild Card) spots (spots decided on point alone) get thinner. The thought is, Gordon and McMurray (9th and 10th in points) are safe whether they win or not. So, the bubble starts at Kahne and that is a lot of pressure. 
• Not only do the non win ("WC") spots get smaller when Kyle makes the top 30, but they will also get smaller at any moment when a new 2015 winner gets a victory (I am looking at you future Watkins Glen winner). Last year it happened with AJ Allmendinger at WG and could again this year. The smaller the WC spots the more important it will be for Kahne to win.
• Speaking of winning, last year his lone win was at Atlanta in the second to last race before the Chase. Well, in 2015 the schedule changed a bit and Atlanta has already be run, without a Kahne win. So, where does he get it now? 
• Kahne does have 5 wins total at four of the remaining seven tracks, but if he doesn't pull off a win where does he turn? On 6 of the 7 tracks he has an average finish of 15.8 or worse. Pocono, WG, Bristol, and RIR his average finish is 17.2 or worse. So, when he doesn't get a win, Kyle and a few other non winners go to victory lane, will he really have enough points to keep a WC spot without a win?