Buy or Sell Gordon's 2015 Chase Chances
By Richard Tix
Week 21 (20 races in)
I think one of my favorite things about the Sprint Cup Chase, and the new Chase format for that matter, is the closing races leading up to the first Chase race. With wins locking you in (unless we somehow end up with more than 16 drivers winning in a single season) it makes those last spot's on points even more exciting. The drama ramps up every single race that passes as you're never truly locked into the Chase without a win.
That brings us to Jeff Gordon.
Gordon seems like one of the safer drivers to get in on points, but in an new era where a win is the only way to be safe the question remains, will he get in? Right now 11 drivers have a win which leaves open 6 spots on points (Kyle Busch is the 11th and outside the top 30 at the moment).
Gordon is the second highest win-less driver without a win (Jamie McMurray is the first), so does that mean he shouldn't worry? Can he coast in? Lets take a look at why you should Buy into his Chase chance and also why you should Sell them and you can decide.
Reason's to Buy In
- I said it last week for Kasey Kahne and his chance's, Jeff Gordon drives for Hendrick Motorsports which is always the #1 reason he should make the Chase. HMS is one of the, if not, the top team in NASCAR right now and has been for a few years. If you bet on a driver, bet on the one with a great owner behind him.
- In 22 season's where he ran full time (1993-2014) he has only had 3 season's where he didn't visit victory lane at least once (one of those was his rookie season. Last season after retirement talk started, Jeff Gordon reeled off 4 total wins and was a true title contender down the stretch. He also already has 3 poles and starting towards the front becomes important in winning and also shows some of the speed is there.
- He is currently 67 points up on 17th in the Chase Standings (Aric Almirola). That sure is a safe number, but it will shrink if anyone else wins. Even then, he is the second driver right now to get in on points and in 2014 two drivers went win-less yet made the Chase (Kenseth and Biffle). That number would have been higher if Aric Almirola didn't win a rain washed Daytona and AJ didn's steal a win at WG. So, each race that passes without a new winner the better Gordon's chances look.
- Fate. I just can't see Gordon going out in his last full time season and not making the Chase. His career has been just to good to not Buy into the thought he will make it. Even if you are just Buying in to have faith, that is enough of a reason for me.
Reason's to Sell
- No one is safe without a win. Just as simple as is the fact he runs for HMS, it is also just as simple to say no one is safe. Until you have a win you worry week after week about how well you're running and it puts added pressure on you and your team. A few mistakes by driver, CC, or pit crew could set you back. Heck, just a bad luck incident like at Indy and a 42nd finish gets you a Buy or Sell article on NASCAR Behind the Wall!
- At this moment (20 races in) Gordon has his worst average finish since 2005 at 15.6. In 22 full time seasons 15.6 ranks 4th worst for Gordon (2005: 17.9, 1993: 17.7, and 1994: 15.8). Two of those are his rookie and second season's at the Cup level. So, even though he has three poles he hasn't been taking advantage of them. Actually, his best finish in 2015 after a pole is 18th at Vegas (Daytona- 33rd and Dega- 31st).
- Gordon has only led 164 total laps this season of the 5,497 he has run. He has led a lap in only 7 of the 20 races and only 3 of those races were more than 3 laps total. In order to win a race you have to have to be out front. In 2015 it just hasn't seemed like Gordon has had a top 5 car very often. In the last 9 races he has had a driver rating of 100+ just one time (Kentucky).
- Lastly, his average running position week to week has not been overly impressive. He has only averaged a top 10 running position in 9 of the 10 races and only one of those was a top 5 (Daytona 500). The 500 was also the only time his average running position was better than 8th. In his last 10 his average running position is 13.8. Add that with where he is finishing and it is concerning. Again, every guy that wins will put more pressure on the points standings guys (or Wild Card guys as I like to call them). When Kyle gets to the top 30 that is one more spot gone Gordon can get. That fact may make Watkins Glen a huge target for Gordon to circle on his calendar.
