Thursday, June 18, 2015

2015 Week 16 Preview: Sonoma

Toyota Save Mart 350

Sonoma Raceway



By Richard Tix

This weekend the Sprint Cup Series takes a week of rest as the head out to the West Coast to make a few right turns at Sonoma. Sonoma will up the pressure for some win-less drivers in 2015 as this race could put them in the Chase.

Different then most tracks, even the underdogs think they have a shot at a road course win. This simple fact makes racing that much more exciting, not to mention that road course's in general have been growing within the NASCAR fan base.

So, the big question will be, will someone steal a win at Sonoma and lock in a Chase spot? If someone does, it not only locks in a Chase spot for that driver but narrows down the spots that will be left for drivers trying to get in on points.

Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart both need wins in 2015 and both have been great here. Clint Bowyer is also another driver who has run well at Sonoma and is win-less on the season. Newman, Biffle, and Allmendinger (2014 Watkins Glen winner) all could have good days too, but will it be enough?




The Good
  • Jeff Gordon- Unless he finds bad luck or a crash, mark Gordon down for a top 10. He has 9 straight top 10's here which includes 1 win, 3 runner up finishes, and 6 top 5's. Plus he has 18 top 10's in 22 career starts at Sonoma.
  • Clint Bowyer- Bowyer has four straight top 10's here even through the last two years in which he has struggled on the season overall. He won back in 2012 and has 7 top 10's in 9 career starts.
  • Jimmie Johnson- Speaking of top 10 streaks, JJ is going 6 strong at Sonoma. In that time he also has a win (2010) and 3 top 10's. Not many people thing JJ and road course, but he has held his own here.
The Middle
  • Ryan Newman- Crazy stat of the day: In 13 starts Newman has a 12.9 average finish, yet only 5 top 10's. Crazy. Finishing in the top 10 less than 50% of the time yet an average finish under 13. That just shows how consistent he is, but he might not push for a win. If you look at his recent results he has been trending towards the "Bad" category that falls below.
The Bad
  • David Ragan- In 8 career starts at Sonoma Ragan has only managed two top 25. Obviously much of his career has been in a underfunded car, but he needs to start finiding more top 30's and top 25's. 
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr- Small sample size, but Ricky's first two finishes here were about as good looking as his mullet. A 27th place finish in 2013 and a 31st place finish in 2014 will not have his confidence too high. His starting position is also a horrendous 30.5 which will not help him at the end of the day. 
  • Denny Hamlin- Did you know Hamlin hasn't finished better than 23rd in 5 years at Sonoma? He actually only has two top 30's since 2010, which is terrible for a driver of his caliber and in the equipment he has. 
Track Stats
  • 9 current drivers have a win at Sonoma. However, only two have multiple wins (Gordon and Stewart).
  • 18 total drivers have won a Cup race at Sonoma. Only five have multiple wins (Gordon, Stewart, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace, and Ernie Ervan).
  • Of those five, only one has more than 2 wins (Jeff Gordon- 5)
  • Gordon also has the most top 5's (14) and top 10's (18) in a career
  • Gordon has the most career poles (5) and Ricky Rudd the second most (4)
  • Gordon has the best career average finish (8.0) followed by Dale Earnhardt (8.6)
  • Rusty Wallace had an average start position of 6.9 over 17 career starts
  • A Chevy has only won once (2010- Johnson) in the last 8 races. Dodge has won three times since then and has been out of the sport since after 2012. 
  • Before that, Chevy had won 7 of 9 races.
  • Sonoma has been won by the Pole 5 times in 26 Cup races
  • The last Pole win was 2004- Jeff Gordon (11 races ago)
Track Info
  • Surface
    • Asphalt
  • Length
    • 1.99 miles
  • Turns
    • 12


Sonoma Raceway
Race
Date
Cars
Winner(s)
St
Make / Model
1989-12
6/11/1989
42
Ricky Rudd
4
Buick
1990-12
6/10/1990
44
Rusty Wallace
11
Pontiac
1991-12
6/9/1991
43
Davey Allison
13
Ford
1992-12
6/7/1992
43
Ernie Irvan
2
Chevrolet
1993-10
5/16/1993
43
Geoffrey Bodine
3
Ford
1994-10
5/15/1994
43
Ernie Irvan
1
Ford
1995-10
5/7/1995
43
Dale Earnhardt
4
Chevrolet
1996-10
5/5/1996
44
Rusty Wallace
7
Ford
1997-09
5/4/1997
44
Mark Martin
1
Ford
1998-16
6/28/1998
43
Jeff Gordon
1
Chevrolet
1999-16
6/27/1999
43
Jeff Gordon
1
Chevrolet
2000-16
6/25/2000
43
Jeff Gordon
5
Chevrolet
2001-16
6/24/2001
43
Tony Stewart
3
Pontiac
2002-16
6/23/2002
43
Ricky Rudd
7
Ford
2003-16
6/22/2003
43
Robby Gordon
2
Chevrolet
2004-16
6/27/2004
43
Jeff Gordon
1
Chevrolet
2005-16
6/26/2005
43
Tony Stewart
7
Chevrolet
2006-16
6/25/2006
43
Jeff Gordon
11
Chevrolet
2007-16
6/24/2007
43
Juan Pablo Montoya
32
Dodge
2008-16
6/22/2008
43
Kyle Busch
30
Toyota
2009-16
6/21/2009
43
Kasey Kahne
5
Dodge
2010-16
6/20/2010
43
Jimmie Johnson
2
Chevrolet
2011-16
6/26/2011
43
Kurt Busch
11
Dodge
2012-16
6/24/2012
43
Clint Bowyer
6
Toyota
2013-16
6/23/2013
43
Martin Truex, Jr.
14
Toyota
2014-16
6/22/2014
43
Carl Edwards
4
Ford



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