Wednesday, June 3, 2015

2015 Week 14 Preview: Pocono

Axalta "We Paint Winners" 400

Pocono Raceway



By Richard Tix

NASCAR leaves the pavement of the Monster Mile behind like most years, with Jimmie Johnson as its winner in Victory Lane. We now head onto the "Tricky Triangle" of Pocono Raceway. Last week in the Dover preview I asked if anyone could beat JJ at the "Mile." Well, that proved to be too tough of a task.

So this week I will ask, will a first time 2015 winner please stand up? Some guys are getting really hunger for a win in 2015 and also a chance to lock in there Chase spot. So far, nine drivers have virtually locked in there spot to the Chase, but only two have more than one win (Kevin Harvick and Johnson).

So, what are the chances a guy like Ryan Newman, Martin Truex, Jeff Gordon, or Kyle Larson pulls off there first win of 2015 at Pocono Raceway? I think these four drivers (plus a few others without wins) have a real shot to pull off a Chase berth this weekend. But who will it be? Maybe the "Good" "Middle" and "Bad" section will help us this week.





The Good

  • Jeff Gordon- Over his career (44 races), Gordon has one of the best average finishes of active drivers (9.9). In his last 9 starts he has 7 top 10's, 3 top 5's, and 2 wins. He also has three straight top 10's going on at Pocono right now.
  • Ryan Newman- Newman might be underrated here at Pocono over his career. Maybe it is because he only has one win over 26 starts, but he is one of the most consistent drivers here (11.4 average finish). He currently holds a five race top 10 streak and has 7 in his last 8. He is also a safe bet, he hasn't finished outside the top 15 since 2008 (13 races) or outside the top 20 since 2005 (19 races).
  • Kyle Larson- It is a very small sample size, but last year Larson finished 5th and 11th in his two starts at Pocono. He also won the Pole in the second Pocono race. Both races his average running position was around 12th or 13th, so he still has some work to do, but maybe this is the race he gets it all together?
The Middle
  • Clint Bowyer- In 18 races he only has 8 top 10's and 2 top 5's, but he still has a good average finish of 14.2. Most of that is because he rarely has a terrible finish here. In those 18 races he has been outside the top 20 only 3 times and outside the top 15 only 5 times. 
The Bad
  • Danica Patrick- She figured out how to manuver around the Ricky, Mullet, and her triangle, but she hasn't figured out the "Tricky Triangle" yet. In her four starts here she has one finish better than 30 (29th). 
  • AJ Allmendinger- In 14 career races at Pocono AJ has a single top 10 (2010). The more concerning part he he only has 2 top 15's and 5 top 20's in that same amount of time. Worse yet, in his last five he only has one finish better than 31st. 
  • Aric Almirola- Aric has a short track record here at the Cup level (6 races), but they haven't been very flattering. He does find a way to finish in the top 25 most times, but he only has two top 20 finishes and no top 15's. 
Track Stats
  • Of current drivers, Jeff Gordon has the most wins (6). Followed by Denny Hamlin (4)
  • Of current drivers Jeff Gordon also has the most top 5's (19). Followed by Tony Stewart (12)
  • Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have the most Pole's of current drivers (3)
  • Jeff Gordon has the most career Pocono wins (6) followed by Bill Elliott (5)
  • Mark Martin has the most career Pocono top 5's (20) followed by Gordon (19)
  • Ricky Rudd has the most career Pocono starts (55) followed by Mark Martin (54)
  • Of drivers with at least 10 Pocono starts, Davey Allison has the best average finish (9.8 in 13 starts).
  • A Pocono race has been won from the Pole 15 times in 74 Cup races
  • Chevy has won the last 5 races and 6 of the last 8. Including Dale Earnhardt Jr sweeping in 2014.
  • The furthest back anyone has started and won was 29th in 2005 when Carl Edwards won in the first Pocono stop of the year
Track Info
  • Surface: Asphalt
  • Length: 2.5 Miles
  • Banking
    • Turn 1: 14 degrees
    • Turn 2: 8 degrees
    • Turn 3: 6 degrees


Pocono Raceway
Race
Date
Cars
Winner(s)
St
Car
1974-20
8/4/1974
35
Richard Petty
3
'74 Dodge
1975-18
8/3/1975
35
David Pearson
2
'73 Mercury
1976-18
8/1/1976
40
Richard Petty
5
Dodge
1977-18
7/31/1977
35
Benny Parsons
4
Chevrolet
1978-18
7/30/1978
40
Darrell Waltrip
4
Chevrolet
1979-19
7/30/1979
39
Cale Yarborough
2
Chevrolet
1980-19
7/27/1980
40
Neil Bonnett
2
Mercury
1981-19
7/26/1981
35
Darrell Waltrip
1
Buick
1982-13
6/6/1982
37
Bobby Allison
3
Buick
1982-18
7/25/1982
36
Bobby Allison
4
Buick
1983-14
6/12/1983
38
Bobby Allison
7
Buick
1983-18
7/24/1983
40
Tim Richmond
1
Pontiac
1984-14
6/10/1984
39
Cale Yarborough
12
Chevrolet
1984-18
7/22/1984
40
Harry Gant
3
Chevrolet
1985-13
6/9/1985
40
Bill Elliott
1
Ford
1985-16
7/21/1985
40
Bill Elliott
2
Ford
1986-13
6/8/1986
40
Tim Richmond
3
Chevrolet
1986-16
7/20/1986
40
Tim Richmond
5
Chevrolet
1987-12
6/14/1987
40
Tim Richmond
3
Chevrolet
1987-16
7/19/1987
40
Dale Earnhardt
16
Chevrolet
1988-13
6/19/1988
40
Geoffrey Bodine
3
Chevrolet
1988-16
7/24/1988
40
Bill Elliott
2
Ford
1989-13
6/18/1989
38
Terry Labonte
23
Ford
1989-16
7/23/1989
40
Bill Elliott
14
Ford
1990-13
6/17/1990
40
Harry Gant
16
Oldsmobile
1990-16
7/22/1990
39
Geoffrey Bodine
4
Ford
1991-13
6/16/1991
37
Darrell Waltrip
13
Chevrolet
1991-16
7/21/1991
40
Rusty Wallace
10
Pontiac
1992-13
6/14/1992
40
Alan Kulwicki
6
Ford
1992-16
7/19/1992
40
Darrell Waltrip
8
Chevrolet
1993-13
6/13/1993
40
Kyle Petty
8
Pontiac
1993-17
7/18/1993
40
Dale Earnhardt
11
Chevrolet
1994-13
6/12/1994
42
Rusty Wallace
1
Ford
1994-17
7/17/1994
42
Geoffrey Bodine
1
Ford
1995-13
6/11/1995
42
Terry Labonte
27
Chevrolet
1995-17
7/16/1995
41
Dale Jarrett
15
Ford
1996-13
6/16/1996
41
Jeff Gordon
1
Chevrolet
1996-17
7/21/1996
41
Rusty Wallace
13
Ford
1997-13
6/8/1997
42
Jeff Gordon
11
Chevrolet
1997-18
7/20/1997
42
Dale Jarrett
4
Ford
1998-15
6/21/1998
43
Jeremy Mayfield
3
Ford
1998-18
7/26/1998
43
Jeff Gordon
2
Chevrolet
1999-15
6/20/1999
43
Bobby Labonte
3
Pontiac
1999-19
7/25/1999
43
Bobby Labonte
4
Pontiac
2000-15
6/19/2000
43
Jeremy Mayfield
22
Ford
2000-19
7/23/2000
43
Rusty Wallace
2
Ford
2001-15
6/17/2001
43
Ricky Rudd
1
Ford
2001-20
7/29/2001
43
Bobby Labonte
11
Pontiac
2002-14
6/9/2002
43
Dale Jarrett
13
Ford
2002-20
7/28/2002
43
Bill Elliott
1
Dodge
2003-14
6/8/2003
43
Tony Stewart
4
Chevrolet
2003-20
7/27/2003
43
Ryan Newman
1
Dodge
2004-14
6/13/2004
43
Jimmie Johnson
5
Chevrolet
2004-20
8/1/2004
43
Jimmie Johnson
14
Chevrolet
2005-14
6/12/2005
43
Carl Edwards
29
Ford
2005-20
7/24/2005
43
Kurt Busch
2
Ford
2006-14
6/11/2006
43
Denny Hamlin
1
Chevrolet
2006-20
7/23/2006
43
Denny Hamlin
1
Chevrolet
2007-14
6/10/2007
43
Jeff Gordon
18
Chevrolet
2007-21
8/5/2007
43
Kurt Busch
2
Dodge
2008-14
6/8/2008
43
Kasey Kahne
1
Dodge
2008-21
8/3/2008
43
Carl Edwards
15
Ford
2009-14
6/7/2009
43
Tony Stewart
1
Chevrolet
2009-21
8/3/2009
43
Denny Hamlin
6
Toyota
2010-14
6/6/2010
43
Denny Hamlin
5
Toyota
2010-21
8/1/2010
43
Greg Biffle
12
Ford
2011-14
6/12/2011
43
Jeff Gordon
3
Chevrolet
2011-21
8/7/2011
43
Brad Keselowski
13
Dodge
2012-14
6/10/2012
43
Joey Logano
1
Toyota
2012-21
8/5/2012
43
Jeff Gordon
27
Chevrolet
2013-14
6/9/2013
43
Jimmie Johnson
1
Chevrolet
2013-21
8/4/2013
43
Kasey Kahne
18
Chevrolet
2014-14
6/8/2014
43
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
8
Chevrolet
2014-21
8/3/2014
43
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
9
Chevrolet



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