Pocono Raceway
Pocono's 400
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By Richard Tix
Well, Dover left us with a little bit of everything. From dominate, to close racing, to the strange. Now NASCAR heads to Pocono and ask's, "what turn four?"
The question is, can Jimmie Johnson keep up his hot streak after winning two straight? He is no slouch here at Pocono, and you will notice what list he is on (hint, its not the Bad category).
If you believe (like myself) we wont have more than 16 drivers that win this year then we know 10 drivers are in the Chase. If you are still of the group that thinks more than 16 will win, then 3 drivers have locked down there spot in the Chase (Johnson, Logano, and Harvick).
So, what comes next? With the race to the Chase half way done I don't see 7 more guys winning a race in 2014. Each time a guy wins the percentage of a new driver winning a race goes down, and when a guy like Kenseth finally wins the percentage will go down dramatically.
How I see it possibly playing out. Matt Kenseth will get a win in the next 13 races, he is running too good not to. Greg Biffle, though he isn't running that well, has a decent shot at a win with some good tracks in the next 13 (including MIS twice). Smoke, Bowyer, and Newman may also be in the mix. But as you can see we are starting to get slim and that would just make 15 winners if each one of these guys got a win in the next 13.
Enough about the Chase race. Lets move onto Pocono and the Good, Middle, and Bad drivers (stats).
The question is, can Jimmie Johnson keep up his hot streak after winning two straight? He is no slouch here at Pocono, and you will notice what list he is on (hint, its not the Bad category).
If you believe (like myself) we wont have more than 16 drivers that win this year then we know 10 drivers are in the Chase. If you are still of the group that thinks more than 16 will win, then 3 drivers have locked down there spot in the Chase (Johnson, Logano, and Harvick).
So, what comes next? With the race to the Chase half way done I don't see 7 more guys winning a race in 2014. Each time a guy wins the percentage of a new driver winning a race goes down, and when a guy like Kenseth finally wins the percentage will go down dramatically.
How I see it possibly playing out. Matt Kenseth will get a win in the next 13 races, he is running too good not to. Greg Biffle, though he isn't running that well, has a decent shot at a win with some good tracks in the next 13 (including MIS twice). Smoke, Bowyer, and Newman may also be in the mix. But as you can see we are starting to get slim and that would just make 15 winners if each one of these guys got a win in the next 13.
Enough about the Chase race. Lets move onto Pocono and the Good, Middle, and Bad drivers (stats).
The Good, Middle, and Bad
(This is just a review of each drivers recent past performance, generally about 5-10 past races)
The Good
- Tony Stewart- Smoke has 8 top 10's in his last 10 starts at Pocono including 6 top 5's and a win in 2009. In the last 10 he also won the Pole twice so he knows how to get around the Tricky Triangle. We are heading into Summer so will Smoke get into his normal Summer Hot stretch?
- Jeff Gordon- In the last 10 Pocono races Gordon has 7 top 10's. 4 of those top tens were top 5's, and two of those were wins. Not bad right? Well even two of his top 10's were 6th place finishes so he just missed out on a few top 5's. The better news for Gordon fans, he was runner up here in the last Pocono race in August.
- Jimmie Johnson- Last year JJ swept the two Pocono race Poles while winning the first stop here. He also lead 171 of 320 laps in the two races. That means JJ was leading 47.5% of the time at Pocono in 2013.
- Extra Credit- Ryan Newman
The Middle
- Kevin Harvick- In his last 9 starts at Pocono he hasn't finished worse then 17th but also hasn't finished better then 4th. In his last 10 he has only led a lap in one race (2010) and it was only 5 laps. Harvick may have a decent finish here, but contending for the win maybe asking a bit much.
The Bad
- Casey Mears- Zero top 10's in his last 10 starts at Pocono, worse yet is his average finish is 28th in that stretch. Even worse yet, in the last 10 Mears only has finihed in the top 20 once.
- AJ Allmendinger- His last 9 starts at Pocono hasn't been pretty. He has 1 top 10 and 2 top 20 in his last 9. His last three have been finishes of 33rd, 33rd, and 31st.
Track Stats
- Richard Petty won the first race at Pocono in 1974. He also won 2 of the first 3.
- Tim Richmond won three straight Pocono races (1986-1987). Won 4 career Pocono races.
- Carl Edwards won in 2005 from 29th position, the furthest spot back someone has won from.
- 5 straight different drivers have won at Pocono.
- Chevrolet has won 3 straight Pocono races (Kahne, Johnson, and Gordon)
- Most cautions was 13 in 1990 (winner Harry Gant) and 2005 (winner Kurt Busch).
- Race has been won from the Pole 6 times in the last 16 races.
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