SHR's Fresh Faces

By Richard Tix

Stewart-Haas Racing has fresh new faces in the garages this year. Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch are making there way to SHR in 2014 and look to try and make an immediate impact with there new team. Both guys are proven drivers and have been successful in NASCAR's highest level, but both can also have dynamic personalities.


The question is, who will win first between the newcomers at SHR in 2014? NASCAR Behind the Wall will take a look at the early season chances of both drivers to see who in fact has the better chance.

Kevin Harvick							Kurt Busch
Track	Races	Win	Top 5	Top 10	Avg F		Races	Win	Top 5	Top 10	Avg F
Daytona	25	2	6	11	15.96		26	0	10	13	17.92
Phoenix	22	4	7	11	12.32		22	1	5	12	13.50
Las Vegas	13	0	3	5	12.69		13	0	1	3	21.77
Bristol	26	1	9	12	13.38		26	5	7	14	14.04
Auto Club	20	1	4	9	15.40		20	1	5	10	12.35
Martinsville	25	1	3	11	16.16		27	1	2	4	21.52
Totals:	131	9	32	59	14.32		134	8	30	56	16.85

Taking a fast look at Career Totals for the first five races (Current Schedule Format) of the two newest SHR drivers and not a lot of differences can be made. Averages and total's for Wins, Top 5's, and Top 10's are all very close for Harvick and Kurt. On big difference is where they win there races? Harvick has shown he can win at some of the early tracks on the Schedule (Daytona and Phoenix) while Kurt has done most of his career damage at Bristol (5 career wins). This includes both drivers whole careers, and not only that, every race at this track (Beginning of the season and end, meaning both Daytona races and not just the 500. Same for all the tracks). So what about the drivers resent success at the beginning of the season at these tracks?

Kevin Harvick Last 5 Season Starts						Kurt Busch Last 5 Season Starts
Daytona 500 (Race 1)			Phoenix (Race 2)			Daytona 500 (Race 1)			Phoenix (Race 2)
Year	Start	Finish	Year	Start	Finish	Year	Start	Finish	Year	Start	Finish
2013	3	43	2013	7	13	2013	11	28	2013	25	27
2012	13	7	2012	8	2	2012	28	39	2012	19	15
2011	7	42	2011	17	4	2011	3	5	2011	2	8
2010	5	7	2010	24	13	2010	10	23	2010	19	35
2009	32	2	2009	33	30	2009	13	10	2009	3	3
Avg	12.00	20.20	Avg	17.80	12.40	Avg	13.00	21.00	Avg	13.60	17.60
Las Vegas (Race 3)			Bristol (Race 4)			Las Vegas (Race 3)			Bristol (Race 4)
Year	Start	Finish	Year	Start	Finish	Year	Start	Finish	Year	Start	Finish
2013	8	9	2013	18	14	2013	24	20	2013	19	4
2012	3	11	2012	14	11	2012	12	35	2012	27	18
2011	26	17	2011	15	6	2011	22	9	2011	20	7
2010	34	2	2010	33	11	2010	1	35	2010	2	3
2009	9	12	2009	30	30	2009	2	23	2009	32	11
Avg	16.00	10.20	Avg	22.00	14.40	Avg	12.20	24.40	Avg	20.00	8.60

Quick thought, wow that's a lot of numbers! But, if we start looking closer one thing is apparent, neither driver has won a race in the past 5 years in the first four races (Current Schedule format), which is pretty amazing when you think of the drivers being compared. Lets take a look race by race:

Daytona

• In the past 5 races at the Daytona 500 Kevin Harvick seems to have an edge over Kurt. He has either finished well (3 times) or had bad luck and finished very poor (the other 2 times). Kurt has been with small teams two of the past three seasons (finished 28th and 39th) but his career average is also lower than Harvicks. 
• Edge: Kevin Harvick

Phoenix

• The past 4 Spring races at Phoenix Harvick has not finished outside the top 13, including two top 5's. During those same 4 races Kurt has only finished inside the top 13 once (8th in 2011). Kurt has however run well at Phoenix over his career. Both drivers have a win here, but Harvick (4 wins) far exceeds Kurt (1 win) in that category as well.
• Edge: Kevin Harvick

Las Vegas

• When looking at the two drivers, this track is one of the biggest mismatches in the first four races going into 2014. Kevin Harvick has an average finish of 10.20 compared to Kurt's 24.40 over the last 5 races. The career numbers are almost has far off for the two. Yet, neither driver has won at Vegas yet in there 13 races there. So, this huge difference may not mean much if neither can win here.
• Edge: Kevin Harvick

Bristol

• This one is all about Kurt Busch. Harvicks numbers are not bad here, but Kurt has been pretty darn good. Kurt has not won a race in the last five starts at Bristol (Spring race) but he does have two top 5's, three top 10's, an 11th, and all of them have been in the top 20. The lone 18th place finish was when he was in arguably his worst car, so the 18th might actually be admirable. 
• Edge: Kurt Busch

Last stat of NASCAR Behind the Wall's race for a win between Kurt and Harvick is looking at a career average of when they get there first win during the season. Only counting full seasons (set as a full time driver) both driver have been running since 2001 (13 seasons). Both drivers have had 3 seasons where they didn't win a race, so because it is even we have thrown those seasons out. That's 10 seasons left, who wins earlier? Kurt Busch averages his first win by the 10.5 race and Kevin Harvick by the 12.5 race.

• Edge: Kurt Busch

The longer you look at the stats the more you realize it truly is a toss up for which SHR newcomer will win first. My take is Harvick has the best shot at winning first if he gets one within the first three races (Daytona, Phoenix, or Las Vegas) with Phoenix being his best opportunity. After that the scale tilts towards Kurt Busch because anytime NASCAR heads to Bristol his name has to be mentioned. Once we get past Bristol its any ones best guess as it truly becomes a guessing game. 

***Update 3/3/14 Well this didn't take too long. I guess I was on the right page when I was thinking Harvick might win first if he gets one in the first three races. Phoenix looked to be just what Harvick needed to get a win at SHR before Kurt Busch. Take a look back at who predicted this as well below!***

So who do you have winning first? Let me know on Twitter and lets see if you can predict the future. Following are some Twitter Folks who have already weighed in.

Obviously Rutledge doesn't read questions all the way through, non the less an answer.

I think Wes would also like to take bets on who throws a temper tantrum first at SHR

Very confident answer!

No NASCAR Behind the Wall did not forget about Smoke! You and Rutledge do think alike!

And two more for good measure.

Thank you Twitter world and NASCAR fans all around for you responses! Looks like most of Twitter thinks Kevin Harvick will win first. Not all responses made it onto the article but thank you for those of you who answered!