Saturday, June 1, 2013

Week 13 Preview

Dover International Speedway

Well Nascar is heading to Dover, the Monster Mile, where many drivers are coming to a cross road. How will they handle the pressure as we get closer every week to the 10 race Chase? Is Tony Stewart going to make a push and find a win or two to get a Wild Card spot? Can Brad Keselowski end his bad luck string that has taken him from defending Champ to a driver on the verge of missing the Chase? Can Denny Hamlin miss part of the season, fall out of the top 20, and then come back and get a Chase berth? Well Dover will start to answer these question's and most likely bring up even more stories to follow in 2013.

As for last week, Kevin Harvick kept his hot streak going and notched his second win of the 2013 season. At the same time Kasey Kahne finished 2nd for the 3rd time on a 1.5 mile track this season. Last season Dover brought us winners of Jimmie Johnson (Fall) and Brad Keselowski (Spring). BK could definitely use the win and a shot of confidence that they can get through a race without something happening to them. Meanwhile Johnson has been unstoppable at Dover in the last 10 races and most of his career. Check out last years Fall results here.


Good, Middle, and Bad Drivers at Dover

The Good:
  • Jimmie Johnson- Surprise, Surprise JJ made the good list once again. But really, of current drivers, he has 7 Monster Mile Wins, the next closest is 4 (Gordon and Martin). Best Chance Forecast: He has been good here in the past. He did qualify poorly so there is a chance someone can steal one from him. Top 10 should still be easy.
  • Matt Kenseth- If it wasn't for Johnson Kenseth would be one of the most dominant drivers at Dover in the last 10 races. In the last 10 he has 8 top 10's and all of them were to 5's! He also has 1 win in the last 10 here. Best Chance Forecast: The way the last 10 have gone here and how good he has been this year it is hard to not say top 5.
  • Carl Edwards- Carl also has 8 top 10's in the last 10 starts at Dover but only 5 of those are top 10's. Pretty good numbers at the Monster Mile but in the last 10 he doesn't have a win, will he get his second of the season? Best Chance Forecast: I think he has a great shot at the top 5 and maybe he can contend for a win.
  • Notables: Kyle Busch and Mark Martin
The Middle:
  • Kevin Harvick- Lots of drivers to choose from in the middle at the Monster Mile in the last 10 races, but I'm highlighting Harvick. 5 top 10's, 1 top 5, and an average finish of 13th puts him towards the top drivers in the last 10 races in finishing position. So what's missing? Well he doesn't have a win, not only in the last 10 races, but in his career. So with his season on the uphill swing could he get his first at Dover?
The Bad:
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr- While his career at Dover hasn't been too bad, the last 10 starts here have been a different story. A fourth place finish is his only top 10 finish in the last 10 at Dover. Add that with the fact that in those 10 he has an average finish of 19.5 and it equals a lot of work to do on the Monster Mile.
  • Juan Pablo Montoya- Good news for Jr, he isn't JPM. Juan's loan top 10 in the last 10 races was also a fourth place finish but his average finish is even worse then Jr's (24.2). At least Jr has had a good season, Juan will need a lot of help to turn his around this weekend.
Laying Low:
  • Denny Hamlin- It is tough to say DH is ever laying low, but if you just looked at his last 10 at Dover he only has 3 top 10's and a top 5. His average finish is a dismal 21.2 in those 10 races. But he has been hot since returning to the track and if you look past those numbers you will see potential to break out. His last 6 here go like this (8, 18, 18, 16, 9, and 4).
  • Jeff Burton- Last year didn't go so well here for Burton, but in the last 10 he has 4 top 10's, 2 top 5's, and an average finish of 12.4. So was last year the start of his old age slump or can he find it one last time at Dover? I think the former may be the case, but either way keep an eye on him for one last run at glory.
  • Greg Biffle- This season has been so tough for the Biff he found his way on this list. In his last 10 he has 4 top 10's, 3 top 5's, 1 win, and the 4th best average finish among current drivers (11.8).
More on Dover?
Well late is better then never! Check out the review and some older Driver Spotlights while you are at it! Enjoy the race this Sunday and check back for a review sometime early next week!!

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