2017 NASCAR Week 17: Daytona

Firecracker 400 (Coke Zero 400)

Daytona International Speedway 

By Richard Tix

What to Watch for?

Surprise Winner?

• Its that time again, lets talk plate racing. Now, I have not been the biggest fan of pack racing at these plate tracks and the consequences they bring, but they do bring in an interesting aspect of the surprise winner. With all the talk of the playoffs starting to heat up, a win here could mean everything to a smaller team or a win-less driver in 2017. A win here could also shake up the playoff picture a whole bunch, so it's a storyline to watch on Saturday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr's last Firecracker

• This is a storyline every week, but Junior and Daytona go hand in hand. A win this weekend would lock Jr into the playoffs (assuming we don't have 17 winners) and really help how his final season is viewed short term, and long term down the road. Junior has won two Firecracker 400's and two Daytona 500's, so a win this weekend would really cement his place in Daytona International Speedway history (as if it already isn't...).

Look to the Skies

• Oh, the weather outside is weather... It's going to be July in Florida, so it isn't a surprise to see rain forecast almost everyday this weekend. However, once again the chances of rain go up in the evening. So, once again the chances of the Firecracker 400 being impacted by rain in some way is high. Remember, Aric Almirola punched his "Chase" ticket by being in the right place at the right time when the rain came, so it's possible it could happen again. Even if the race doesn't get shortened we still have a high probability that people will run some crazy strategies in the hopes it does happen.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Austin Dillon- If AD is going to pull off another win, Daytona might just be it. His average finish of 12.6 leads all current Cup regulars.
• Joey Logano- JoLo has finishes of 6th, 4th, 6th, 22nd, and 1st dating back to that win in 2015. He consistently has been a front runner at Daytona.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- Not much has to be said about Junior and plate tracks. However, he needs it this time to give him a shot at the playoffs.

The Middle

• Ryan Newman- You want a guy almost locked into finishing 20-28th? Newman is your guy. Maybe it is because he is normally in the group that sits back and waits, but whatever it is it really hasn't worked well.

The Bad

• Kasey Kahne- In his last nine races here Kahne has just three top 15s (two top ten's). He has more finishes of 25th or worse than career top tens (nine).
• Danica Partick- Bad luck seems to follow Danica. This season she has been a magnet towards the wall and almost every time it wasn't her fault. Add in the multiple wrecks she has had at Daytona and she will be lucky to make it out without an incident.
• Brad Keselowski- Talking about bad luck, BK has had the same type of luck at Daytona. While he runs very well at Talladega, DIS has been a bit more up and down. He won this race last year, but previously his last top 15 was in 2014.

About the Track: Daytona

Track Stats

• Jimmie Johnson was the first driver since Bobby Allison in 1982 to win both stops at DIS in a single season (2013)
• Tony Stewart won from 42nd starting position 7/7/12, which is the farthest back anyone has won from (Firecracker 400)
• However, Matt Kenseth won from 39th in the 2009 500, which is the farthest back anyone has won the Daytona 500
• A Toyota only has two wins at DIS (Kyle Busch 2008 Firecracker and Denny Hamlin 2016 Daytona 500)
• Chevy has won 8 of the last 16. Ford has won 8 of 17. Denny Hamlin won the other.
• Trevor Bayne is still the youngest Daytona 500 win (19 years old. 2011 Daytona 500). It is still his only Cup win.

Track Info

• Surface- Asphalt
• Length- 2.5 miles
• Banking
• Turns: 31 degrees
• Tri-Oval: 18 degrees
• Back Straight: 2 degrees

2017 NASCAR Pit Road Week 16: Sonoma

Weekly Review and Power Rankings

Toyota/Save Mart 350

By Richard Tix

Sonoma Thoughts:

No Late Caution

• Just one week after what seemed like a phantom debris caution at MIS, the end of Sonoma looked to be in a spot where NASCAR might have a quick trigger finger for a yellow. Kevin Harvick was out front pretty easily and only had a small shot at not finishing (fuel). To NASCAR's credit, they didn't find a crazy reason to throw a yellow and instead it finished as expected (a yellow did fly right around when Harvick was about to cross the S/F).

Road Courses Still Equal Fun

• Road Courses being a fan favorite has become the norm in 2017. On Jeff Gluck's "Was it a good race" twitter poll Sonoma got an overwhelming 78% yes which is normal for a road course week. What is a bit crazy is if a finish like we had on Sunday (Harvick way out front and winning after a yellow came out on the final lap), happened at a 1.5 mile track the poll results most likely would have flip flopped a bunch. I understand much of that is also the racing action during the meat of the race, but it is still interesting to note. I am part of the "more road course" crowd (and the "real road course, not roval" crowd), but I don't want them over saturated either. Another stop or two at most in place of a 1.5 would work for me, plus add in some more short tracks....

No Surprise Winner

• To be fair, Watkins Glenn is where AJ Allmendinger really has excelled and where we get more "surprise" winners, but guys like Logano, Kenseth, and Bowyer can take a deep breath knowing AJ didn't win. Harvick winning was almost a lock and even without a win he was the highest in points (without a win), so his trip to VL posses no threat to the non win drivers for the most part. Up next is Daytona which has been arguably an even bigger wild card race than Sonoma has so everyone will be trying out any strategy necessary to win.

Pit Road Power Rankings: Week 16 (Week 15)

1. Martin Truex Jr (LW-1)- After a blown engine the end result wasn't what he wanted, but before it blew up on him Truex was a top contender to beat on Sunday.
2. Kyle Busch (LW-3)- Zero wins makes it tough to put Rowdy right behind Truex, but he does have three straight top tens and six top tens in his last seven. A win is coming for this team soon if they can stop losing CC's.
3. Kevin Harvick (LW-4)- I said it for about three weeks, then didn't say it last week in the power rankings: "a win is coming for this team." Well, it finally came Sunday at Sonoma. "Happy" has lead at least ten laps in nine of sixteen races this season.
4. Kyle Larson (LW-2)- After taking the pole, Sunday didn't exactly go Larson's way at Sonoma. Even after a poor day, he actually kept the top spot in the standings from Truex Jr who also had late issues.
5. Chase Elliott (LW-9)- Chase is starting to surge again after a lull from races nine to twelve. He is starting to consistently run in the top ten again, but will still need to close a race out (restarts, pit stops, CC strategy) if he wants to win before the playoffs.
6. Jamie McMurray (LW-5)- Consistency king, JMac is tied for third for most top tens (ten top tens, two driver have eleven). Three more top tens and he will match his best in a season other than the lone season he had 23 (2004).
7. Jimmie Johnson (LW-6)- 3, 3, and 6. That is JJ's wins, top fives, and top tens in 2017. He is perfectly safe, but one has to think they would want to rack up some more playoff points at some point while Truex keeps knocking them off.
8. Denny Hamlin (LW-7)- Another JGR car starting to come to life as of late. Slowly, the 11 is starting to catch the pack. Sonoma was his second straight 4th place finish and his fourth top ten in five races.
9. Brad Keselowski (LW-10)- BK got back on track on Sunday after finishing 3rd in a car that looked like it was just part of the county fair demo derby. 
10. Ryan Blaney (LW-11)- Blaney had a pretty solid run at Sonoma for only his second Cup start here. He started 7th and finished 9th and picked up 39 points which was good for fourth most.
11. Kurt Busch (LW-NR)- Kurt is on the every other race top ten streak. The good: Sonoma was a top ten week. The bad: Daytona is on a non top ten week....
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr (LW-NR)- He's back. It's been awhile since Junior cracked the top 12 on NBTW, but after his second top ten in a row he will grace the very bottom as we head to one of his best tracks, Daytona.

Dropped Out: Matt Kenseth (LW-8) and Erik Jones (LW-12)

Just Missed: Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and Ryan Newman

2017 NASCAR Week 16: Sonoma

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Sonoma Raceway

By Richard Tix

15 down, 11 to go. 11 more races until the NASCAR Playoffs get started. This weekend is as important as any for drivers still looking to lock in a spot in the top 16. Road courses open up opportunities for a few drivers to peak into the spotlight for a bit, but will it end up with a surprise trip to Victory Lane? The odds are we won't see a crazy winner, but you never know. So, buckle up and get ready for this weekend at Sonoma. Take a look at a few things worth following this weekend.

What to watch for?

Will Truex Jr. or Larson create some separation in the points?

• Only five points separate the 42 and 78 (42 with the lead) heading into Sonoma. Both drivers have been the head of the field in 2017 and will look to keep it going. Truex Jr. has recently won here (2013) and Larson has steadily shown improvement (28th, 15th, and then 12th). The perfect storm could be coming if these two can battle for the lead late on Sunday.

The battle for 16th place in the standings

• The battle for number one isn't the only one to watch. "But if you're not first, you're last!" (pipe down in the back Ricky Bobby) As it stands right now, Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth are in a tie for the 16th spot with Bowyer just missing the cut. Even though it is for 15th and 16th (not 16th and 17th), it will be fun to watch two drivers with a past history try and stay off the bubble spot at number 16.

Can AJ Allmendinger tame Sonoma?

• Allmendinger's name is always the first one brought up when NASCAR heads to road course and for good reason as he has won at Watkins Glenn (Cup), Elkhart Lake (Xfinity), and Mid-Ohio (Xfinity). However, Sonoma hasn't been his track yet at the Cup level. AJ has managed a pole and two other front row starts in his last three races here, but the finishes haven't come as easy. With the Playoffs quickly coming up on the horizon, it is go time for the No. 47 team this weekend.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Kyle Busch- Rowdy has back to back top tens here at Sonoma including a win in 2015. He also runs really well at Watkins Glenn, so he know hows to wheel it to the left and right.
• Clint Bowyer- Eight top tens in eleven career starts at Sonoma. Bowyer also has a win here in 2012. Bowyer could really use a win as he sits 17th in points right now.
• Martin Truex Jr- Truex won here back in 2013, had a couple rough finishes, and then finished fifth last season.

The Middle

• Jimmie Johnson- When you think of JJ you don't normally think of road course racing, but he actually has fared really well here at Sonoma. In his last eight starts here he has seven top tens, three top fives, and a win (2010).

The Bad

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr- Ricky only has one top 20 in his first four career starts here at Sonoma. He also has the same amount of top 25's, not, good. 
• Denny Hamlin- Last year Hamlin finished second, but before that he had zero top 15's in his previous six races and only one top 20.
• Matt Kenseth- 17 career Sonoma starts and one top ten, Kenseth's struggles here have been well documented. His last top 15 was 2012.

About the Track: Sonoma

Track Stats

• 18 total drivers have won a Cup race at Sonoma. Only six have multiple wins (Gordon, Stewart, Busch, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace, and Ernie Ervan).
• Of those six, two have more than two wins (Jeff Gordon- 5 and Tony Stewart- 3)
• Gordon also has the most top 5's (14) and top 10's (18) in a career
• Gordon has the most career poles (5) and Ricky Rudd the second most (4)
• Gordon has the best career average finish (8.3) followed by Dale Earnhardt (8.6)
• Rusty Wallace had an average start position of 6.9 over 17 career starts
• Sonoma has been won by the Pole 5 times in 28 Cup races
• The last Pole win was 2004- Jeff Gordon (11 races ago)

Track Info

• Surface- Asphalt
• Length- 1.99 miles
• Turns- 12

2017 NASCAR Schedule: Sonoma

Toyota/Save Mart 350

By Richard Tix

All Times are Eastern (ET)


Sonoma Raceway

Friday June 23rd, 2017

• 3-4:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series first practice- FS1
• 6:30-7:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice- FS1

Saturday June 24th, 2017

• 2:45 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Coors Light Qualifying- FS1

Sunday June 25th, 2017

• 3 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota / Save Mart 350 (110 laps)- FS1

Iowa Speedway (Xfinity and Trucks)

Friday June 23rd, 2017

• 10 a.m.-11:25 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series first practice- FS1
• 12:15-1:15 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series final practice- FS1
• 2-2:55 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series first practice- FS1
• 5-5:55 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series final practice- FS1
• 6:05 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Keystone Light Pole Qualifying
• 8:30 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Series M&M’s 200 presented by Casey’s General Store (200 laps)- FS1

Saturday June 24th, 2017

• 6:15 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series Coors Light Qualifying- FS1
• 8:30 p.m.: NASCAR XFINITY Series American Ethanol E15 250 presented by Enogen (250 laps)- FS1