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Tuesday, June 14, 2016

2016 NASCAR Week 16 Preview: Sonoma

Toyota / Save Mart 350

Sonoma Raceway



By Richard Tix

NASCAR gets a week off this season for fathers day so all the drivers can enjoy some time away from the track (some will and some won't). No matter what the 40 drivers do, they won't be running in a Sprint Cup points race until we get to Sonoma Raceway.

Sonoma will provide the first chance for a driver to shake up the Chase outlook. Sure, any given week any driver can win a race, but most weeks that driver will come from a top 16 driver anyways. But, tracks like Sonoma and Watkin's Glen, plus superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega, give underdogs a real shot. Two years ago it was A.J. Allmendinger at WG and this year it could be anyone.

Maybe Tony Stewart can use his great MIS finish to gain speed towards the Chase with a Sonoma win? He has won here and road courses are the great equalizer.

However, in recent years the "ringer" drivers have been left in the dust and Cup regulars have started to focus more on these two tracks especially given the Chase circumstances.

So, will someone make a bid to splash the Chase party with a trip to victory lane at Sonoma? Or will business go on as usual?




**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

  • Kurt Busch- In Kurt Busch's last five races at Sonoma he has been a front runner. He has a win and four top 5's in that time. Coming into Sonoma during a 2016 where he has been one of the most consistent drivers means he should factor into Sundays race.
  • Clint Bowyer- It will be a one year stint for Bowyer with HScott, but he has a shot to have one of his better runs of the year at Sonoma. Clint has a win, four top 5's, and five top 10's in the last five races.
  • Carl Edwards- The 2014 Sonoma winner, Carl got caught up in a wreck last year and finished 40th. He should bounce back this year and brings back to back quality runs at Michigan and Pocono to Sonoma. 
The Middle
  • Kasey Kahne- Kasey Kahne actually has three straight top 10's at Sonoma coming into week 16. Over his last five races he has an average finish of 10.8.
The Bad
  • Denny Hamlin- Hamlins last five races at Sonoma Raceway havent yielded pretty results. IN fact, in that time he hasn't finished in the top 15 once. To top that off he only has one top 20 in the last five races.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr- As I said last year in this preview, Ricky has a small sample size at Sonoma to really judge. He led those comments up with a 20th place finish. On the outside that looks like a poor result, but it was actually his best finish in three attempts.
  • Matt Kenseth- Another JGR driver who has struggled at Sonoma lately, Kenseth and Hamlin look to get things turned around this year. He only has two top 15's in his last five Sonoma races.

About the Track: Sonoma
Track Stats

  • 9 current drivers have a win at Sonoma. However, only two have multiple wins (Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart).
  • 18 total drivers have won a Cup race at Sonoma. Only six have multiple wins (Gordon, Stewart, Busch, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace, and Ernie Ervan).
  • Of those six, only one has more than 2 wins (Jeff Gordon- 5)
  • Gordon also has the most top 5's (14) and top 10's (18) in a career
  • Gordon has the most career poles (5) and Ricky Rudd the second most (4)
  • Gordon has the best career average finish (8.3) followed by Dale Earnhardt (8.6)
  • Rusty Wallace had an average start position of 6.9 over 17 career starts
  • A Chevy has only won once (2010- Johnson) in the last 9 races. Dodge has won three times since then and has been out of the sport since after 2012. 
  • Before that, Chevy had won 7 of 9 races.
  • Sonoma has been won by the Pole 5 times in 27 Cup races
  • The last Pole win was 2004- Jeff Gordon (11 races ago)

Track Info

  • Surface
    • Asphalt
  • Length
    • 1.99 miles
  • Turns
    • 12

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