Pages

Friday, August 22, 2014

Chasing the Chase in 2014: Part Two

Win-less Drivers After 23 Races into the 2014 Season


By Richard Tix

After 19 races in the 2014 NASCAR Behind the Wall took its first in depth look at the win less drivers who were looking for a Chase spot. Because I think most season's we will not have 16 plus winners, each season some racing in NASCAR will still come down to points. Take this year for example, even with Aric Almirola stealing his first win at a rain shortened Firecracker 400 and AJ Allmendinger getting a road course win at Watkins Glenn we still only have 12 winners through 23 races.

So, three races left in NASCAR's regular season and 4 spots up for grabs. Realistically I see this as a 7 driver points race (Kenseth, Newman, Bowyer, Biffle, Kahne, Larson, and Dillon). In my opinion these are the only guys that can get into the Chase on points alone. Now, that isn't to say guys like Vickers, McMurray, or Paul Menards couldn't win and get in, but I just don't see these guys getting in off points alone. 

Lets get down to the nitty gritty when it comes to points racing and who will get in. Each driver has a different outlook at the remaining 3 races. Kenseth, Newman, and Bowyer should be looking at just having great finishes week to week (Bowyer is up 12 points on Biffle right now and 21 points on Kahne in 17th). Biffle, Kahne, and the two rookies need a mix of great points races, which still might not be enough. So, these four drivers will be pushing for a win in the next three races.

In my last article (Chasing the Chase in 2014) I had predicted Kenseth (win or points), Newman (points), and Bowyer (points) would all get in. I also predicted Kahne and Smoke would get in on a win by the Chase. The unfortunate accident that took the life of Kevin Ward Jr has left Smoke on the sidelines for personal reason and therefor not having a chance at the Chase. 

Also, since then we went from 11 winners to 12 winners which took a spot away from one of these drivers trying to get in on points.

I will stick by my statement in the last article and say Kenseth, Newman, Bowyer, and Kahne get in. But lets take a quick look at each driver and the remaining three races.


Matt Kenseth


Kenseth is a practical lock for the Chase in 2014. Even after a rough race at Michigan Kenseth has 709 points (most of any non winner). The next closest driver is Ryan Newman who is still 30 points back. Kenseth also has a 49 point lead over Greg Biffle who is 16th in the Chase Standings right now. Safe to say, win or not, Kenseth will be apart of the Chase this season. 

Coming Up:

Kenseth has 3 career wins at Bristol Motor Speedway. His most recent win at Bristol was last year in this same race the race this weekend. Earlier this year he finished 13th. In his last 10 at Bristol he has 7 top 10's and 4 top 5's. In his last 14 races at Atlanta he hasn't finished higher than 13th and has 9 top 10's, but he has yet to win there. Richmond statistically in his career is his worst of the three remaining races. Yet, his last four starts at Richmond have been pretty good (5, 7, 6, and 5th earlier this year). So, the focus wont be getting into the Chase, but rather getting on a hot streak going into the Chase for the #20.


Ryan Newman


The further we go down this list the more complicated things become for these drivers. Newman has been very consistent this season but has never really been a threat to win, or even a top 5 threat. However, he still has enough quality finishes to be the second guy getting in on points (if the season had ended after MIS). He has a 19 point lead on 16th (Biffle) which is he keeps finishing consistently should be enough. But, if a driver below him in points wins a race the points squeeze will become tight for the #31.

Coming Up:

Newman has never won at Bristol in his 25 career starts. He also has an average finish position of 17th. On top of those stats, he also only has one top 10 in his last 5 starts at BMS. The small good news, he normally finishes inside the top 25 so it shouldn't completely kill his day. Atlanta isn't much better for Ryan. In 21 career starts he only has 7 top 10's. The plus side, he has 7 career poles (6 straight), but those days are long gone and were in his hay day from 2003-2007. The last race of the regular season is where Newman might need to get it done at. It is the only track in the last three that he has a win at, and in 25 career races he has 15 career top 10's (Including 4 of the last 6). I still think he will get in on points, but it could be a tight one if he slips up at Bristol or Atlanta.


Clint Bowyer


Bowyer is only two points back for Newman, which means he is 17 points up on 16th place Greg Biffle. He is in a good spot to make the Chase off points, but not great. Bowyer really had a slow start to the 2014 season which put him in a huge hole, but recently he has started to climb out of it. He is a guy that I do think can still get in on points and will hang on.

Coming Up:

In 17 races at Bristol Bowyer finishes in the top 10 about half the time (8 times), but has never won. Since he has been with MWR (5 races) he has never finished worse then 15th and has three top 10's (two top 5's). Lately, when it comes to Atlanta you can almost count Bowyer out. In his last 6 starts he has one top 10 and the rest of his 5 finishes have been outside the top 22. Just like Newman, Richmond is Bowyers best track left. In 17 starts he has 9 top 10's, 3 top 5's, and 2 wins. Earlier this year he had trouble with his car and ended up finishing 43rd, so I see a big bounce back this time around.


Greg Biffle


I am still going to stick to my guns that Biffle won't make the Chase (I mean that's the fun in predictions, right?). He is currently the last guy into the Chase right now. Biffle is only up 9 points on Kasey Kahne, but both drivers have been coming on strong late in the regular season. Biffle missed his best shot at winning this past weekend at Michigan, but that doesn't mean he can't get in.

Coming Up:

Biffle has only one top 10 in his last 6 starts at Bristol, but before that he strung together 4 straight. He doesn't have a win at Bristol in 23 starts, but could put in a good points day. Atlanta isn't that impressive for Biffle either, as he has 9 top 10's, 3, top 5's, and zero wins in 19 career races. However, he does normally find a way to finish in the top 15, which wont kill his points. Richmond is a different story for Biffle. I think this will be the race that truly makes or breaks Biffles Chase chances. In his last 15, 15!, starts at Richmond he has 1 top 10. That dates all the way back to 2007. Now, maybe you are the kind of person that says "well he is due," which is fine, but numbers are not on his side.


Kasey Kahne


Kahne has has more top 10's in his last 9 races (5) then he has in his first 14 (4). He has come on strong when he most needs it. I still think that he may need a win in the remaining 3 races to get in, but as I mentioned before in Biffles section, the door could swing wide open if Biffle missteps at Richmond. That would bring this Chase to the Chase right down to the wire. But, lets look at the next three and see where Kahne could win.

Coming Up:

Kasey does have a win at Bristol, in fact it was just three races ago. Last season he won Bristol the first time around and then finished runner up the 2nd time around. Earlier this season he finished 8th and in his 5 BMS races with Hendrick he only has 1 finish outside the top 10. Atlanta on the other hand has been a feast or famine track for Kahne. He has 2 career wins, but also in his last 4 he only has one finish inside the top 30. I personally like his chance's, but that's a total shot in the dark. Richmond is another track he has won at, but not since 2005. In his last 12 starts there he only has 2 top 10's (lucky in his case, one of them was with Hendrick). With HMS his worst finish has been 21st and the rest have all been in the top 15, but I don't see a win at Richmond this season.


Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson


Both of these rookies have an outside shot at getting into the 2014 Chase. Dillon is 22 points back of Greg Biffle and after a fiery finish at MIS Larson has dropped to 24 points back. Before that mishap at MIS Larson looked like he could make a push at the Chase. Don't get me wrong, Larson still can, but now it is an uphill battle where as before he was on top of the hill already (in the Chase). Dillon on the other hand has been good, just not great yet. I don't think he will win nor make it in on points, but that doesn't take away from a good season. If it were last season he would be 13th in points and just missing the Chase to guys who have a win and get the wild card spots.


Some Other Chase Articles:


No comments:

Post a Comment