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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Week 16 Preview: Sonoma

Sonoma Raceway

Toyota/Save Mart 350


By Richard Tix

Its time for NASCAR Sprint Cup cars to finally turn right in 2014. NASCAR heads to Sonoma Raceway just one week after Jimmie Johnson finally got that monkey off his back at Michigan and picked up his first career win there.

Some fans have been a bit reluctant to open up to road courses in NASCAR, but in recent years the idea has come full circle. I think in general much of the NASCAR population is even pushing for a road course in the Chase.

I for one enjoy the two trips to the road courses. I would even go as far as to add Road America (or another course) to the schedule. For one, it would add another variety to the schedule and it would give fans in the Midwest (myself included) another close track to go to.

For the record, I am also on the side of more short tracks in NASCAR. Take a few of the 1.5 tracks that get two stops a year and reduce them to one. Add in a short track or two (say Iowa Speedway. Again, I like the addition of a Midwest track because of my own personal connection, but many drivers think it would be a great add). Tracks that are different and you have to drive.

Ambrose v BK at Watkins Glenn
Recently the truck series went to Gateway Motorsports Park. Now this track isn't technically a short track (1.25 miles) but it has unique characteristics and would test drivers. There are plenty of examples of tracks to add. NASCAR attendance has declined since its boom, but NASCAR couldn't sustain that boom as no sport ever does. But where they go from here is key to continue to be successful.

Change is never the easiest thing to take (just check out fan reactions to the new Chase format)
Kyle v BK at Watkins Glenn
but a change in the schedule needs to happen eventually. 1.5 mile tracks were great when the sport was at its peak. Lots of fans could go and see some good racing, but now some don't need two stops a year. Even Michigan (which I go to every year and love) could be moved down to once a year. The high speeds are great, and grooves are starting to open up again, but a lot of times strategy is what decides the winner. Now, strategy in NASCAR is great, but when you are at the track you want to see racing and that is how the sport started. When it started your strategy was to have the fastest most reliable car, now fuel, areo, and when you make a pit stop are almost as important as being the fastest car.

So back to Sonoma and turning right. If there wasn't enough of a case for unique tracks I will have you take a look back at some old road course races. Last year Road America was a lot of fun. Brad Keselowski and Marcus Ambrose in the wet weather, fun. And BK and Kyle Busch going at it on the final laps was a blast. Just think if a road course was part of the Chase?


The Good, Middle, and Bad
(This is just a review of each drivers recent past performance, generally about 5-10 past races)

The Good:
  • Jeff Gordon- Gordon hasn't won at Sonoma the last 7 years, but that does not mean he is not a strong contender. Those last 7 include two runner up's, 4 top 5's, and 7 top 10's. He is not as dominate as he was in the late 90's early 2000's but he still will be a front runner.
  • Tony Stewart- The only other driver to have multiple wins at Sonoma (other than Gordon), Stewart also hasn't been as dominate as of late here. In his last 7 races here he does have two finishes out of the top 10 (28th and 39th (crash)). In that same span he also notched two runner up finishes and 5 top 10's. 
  • Clint Bowyer- Bowyer has three straight top 5's at Sonoma including a win in 2012. He has 8 career races at Sonoma with 6 top 10's, 5 top 5's and a win. Bowyer has seemed to figure out Sonoma so he could run up front most of the day.
  • Extra Credit: Marcus Ambrose
The Middle:
  • Jimmie Johnson- This week, this is just an additional good driver. JJ is only in the middle position because when is the last time you thought of Sonoma and Jimmie Johnson is who came to your mind? Well in this last 10 races here he has 7 top 10's, 4 top 5's, and a win. Not too shabby for a guy you don't think about on road courses.
The Bad:
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr- 14 tries at at top 10 and Dale Jr has come up short every time. Those arent the kind of stats you want on your side. However, he does have 6 finishes of 11th-13th in those same 14 races. Either way, if you don't have a top 10 at a track (no matter how close you have come) and your average finish is 21.5, you will end up in the category.
  • Aric Almirola- Not a long track record here, so it maybe a bit unfair, but Aric only has one top 20 in his 3 starts at Sonoma. What is in his favor is the fact that that 20th place finish was just last year. His other two finishes were 28th.
  • Denny Hamlin- DH has 8 career starts at Sonoma and the first 4 and second 4 are totally different stories. His first 4 finishes were 12, 10, 27, and 5. His last 4 have been 34, 37, 35, and 23. As you can see the trend hasn't been in the positive. Maybe Hamlin will start a new 4 race trend in the right direction this time around?
Track Stats
  • Of current drivers only Jeff Gordon (5) and Tony Stewart have multiple wins at Sonoma
  • Ricky Rudd won the first Cup race here in 1989
  • A driver running a Ford has not won a race at Sonoma since 2002 (Ricky Rudd)
  • 2004 (Jeff Gordon) was the last time a race was won from the Pole
  • 3 of Jeff Gordon's 5 wins have come from the Pole
  • Juan Pablo Montoya won after starting 32nd (2007) and Kyle Busch won after starting 30 (2008). Those are the fathers back a winner has come from. In fact, no one else has won from father back then 14th (Martin Truex Jr 2013) other then them.
  • 17 different drivers have won at Sonoma since 1989
  • NASCAR has had 9 straight different winners (2005. The last repeat, Gordon 2004 and 2006. 
  • Most cautions was 8 in 2005. 
  • Jeff Gordon is the only driver to win at least back to back (In fact it was back to back to back, 1998-2000)

Sonoma Race Weekend Links:

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