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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Week 10 Preview

Talladega Superspeedway

Nascar is officially through a Quarter of the 2013 season! 9 races into the season and Nascar heads to Talladega for the first of two times (the next during the Chase). As Nascar left Richmond International Raceway Kevin Harvick finally got hot and into the top 5 for the first time this year with a late race Win.

Some bad luck and bad nights hit some drivers hard in Richmond which could end up being a huge misstep in a Chase spot run with Dega next on the list (known for getting into trouble). Last year's Talladega winners come into this week on different terms. In the Spring race Brad Keselowski got his second career win at Talladega (the other his first ever career win in 2009) and needs to bounce back after he lost a cylinder late in the race at Richmond. On the other hand, Matt Kenseth who was the winner at Dega during the Chase has been on a hot streak again.

Yet both drivers need a good finish this week because both have faced the wrath of Nascar and run into penalties that make every misstep even larger. Here is a look at the Spring race results at Talladega.


The Good:
  • Brad Keselowski- BK needs a good week that is mistake free to get past all the bad luck he has been through. Every since Nascar came down on Penske he has seemed to have some bad luck but for the most part fight through it. In his 8 starts he has a 12.2 average finish (best of current drivers), 2 wins, 3 top 5's, and 6 top 10's. Best Chance Forecast: BK has to run into some good luck some where right? Top 5 with a good shot at getting his first win of the season.
  • Clint Bowyer- In the last 10 races at Talladega Bowyer has not only the most top 10s (7) but the best average finish (10.5). Add in two wins in his last 5 and you have the ingredients for a good track. Best Chance Forecast: Another top 10 should be a no brainer, a chance at a win is possible.
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr- Even though his last 10 races have been just average at Talladega (4 top 10's and no wins) Jr has a long history of great driving here. If you add up the fact he knows the track well and he has a hot start to the 2013 season I think it is safe to say he should have a good weekend. Best Chance Forecast: I'm thinking he will find his way to the top 10, and may find a top 5.
The Middle:
  • Matt Kenseth: The guy I will go with this week out of the many drivers to choose from, Kenseth. In the last 10 he has led the second most laps, has a win and 2 top 5's (both last year) but his average finish over those 10 is 21st. 2 of the races he didn't finish because of a crash but something has to give. Best Chance Forecast: the fact that last year he had two top 5's including a win here, plus he has been hot this season, makes me think he can turn around his mediocrity at Talladega.
The Bad:
  • Marcus Ambrose- All the way down there at 25.1 average finish position in the last 10 races it Ambrose. In 8 races he has 1 top 5 and that is it (first career start at Dega). He had a rough week last week and Dega will do him no favors, he will have to earn it.
  • Jamie McMurray- One driver who has a career win at Dega (in the last 10) who hasn't done well most of the time here is McMurray. He has an average finish of 22.5 in the last 10 with only two top 5's (win and runner up). If you exclude those 2 good races, he has only finished inside the top 16 once in the 8 other races.
  • Tony Stewart-Smoke is another driver who has a win in his last 10 races at Dega but overall hasn't had much luck. Only 2 top 10's in that span and an average finish position of 21.4. It doesn't look good for him heading into Dega cold in 2013, but maybe this is the kind of spot where he will surprise?
Laying Low:
  • David Ragan- In the last 10 races at Talladega David Ragan had 5 top 10's, yes I said 5. His average finish of 14.1 is 6th best of current drivers in the last 10 (4th best if you take out 1 race drivers Mike Bliss (10) and Kenny Wallace (12). Last year his finishes were 7th in Spring and 4th in the Fall. Not too bad for a guy running on a small team.
  • Jeff Burton- Right behind Ragan in average finish in the last 10 is Burton (14.2). He has 6 top 10's and 3 top 5's in those 10 races. He also has posted 3 straight top 10's (3rd, 10th, and 10th).
  • Travis Kvapil- Big time sleeper alert. Last year with BK racing Kvapil finished 16th in the Spring and 8th in the Fall. In his 7 career starts at Dega he has 2 top 10's and a pole so anything is possible.
You can be good or bad, hot or cold and it could all change in one lap when Nascar heads to Talladega. When will the big one happen? Who will be a part of it? Dega brings hope to drivers who need to get on a roll because if they stay in one piece and away from the big crash they could have a chance.

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