2018 NASCAR Week 4: ISM Raceway

Ticket Guardian 500

ISM Raceway

By Richard Tix

What to Watch For?

Kevin Harvick's Three Peat

• Harvick has already won back to back races and we now head to one of his best tracks of the last five years. He has six wins in his last 12 starts here including 11 top tens, ten top fives, and two second place finishes. He had a five race stretch where he led 1,064 and won four of those. So, can Harvick win back-to-back-to-back races to kick 2018 off? Oh, and don't forget to watch out for his (and others) right rear window. Last week his dominance left a huge spotlight on his back window when it looked partially collapsed. So, this week it is sure to continue. Was it on purpose? Was it as Rodney said and it was a part failure? If it was on purpose I can bet the No. 4 team won't have it happening this weekend.

Last Time ISM Will Be Configured This Way

• That's right, almost everyone has heard that Phoenix, now ISM Raceway, will be re-configuring. The start/finish line will be moving and the grandstands have already started shifting to not only be in better position for the new start/finish, but also to help shade fans from the hot desert heat. So, soak in the current start/finish line because when we come back for the playoffs it will be a new way of looking at ISM.

Chase Elliott

• Chase Elliott and HMS have had a rocky start to 2018. Elliott has easily been the best HMS driver early in the year, but he still hasn't had the finishes to show for it. Last year in the playoffs Chase finished 2nd here and has a shot at a top 5 (maybe a win) if he and his team can bounce back finally.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Kevin Harvick- His winning streak is broken, but his transition to Ford only provided a small speed bump (finishes of 6th and 5th last year). Harvick is basically a lock for a top ten at ISM (nine straight).
• Kyle Busch- Kyle has five straight top tens and and seven in his last eight races here. He hasn't won since 2005, but he has been knockin
• Chase Elliott- Small Sample Size Alert: Chase has four starts here with three top tens (one top five). Last time here he finished 2nd during the 2017 playoffs.

The Middle

• Jimmie Johnson- JJ has four wins here at ISM, but none since 2009. JJ is good here, but in his last seven he has three finishes of 38th or higher. So, bad luck has followed him around at ISM lately.

The Bad

• Kasey Kahne- Five straight races without a top ten and only one of those was a top 15. Not ideal and life could get harder now that he isn't at HMS.
• Martin Truex Jr- Ok, being labeled as "bad" is a stretch, but this section always is. However, Truex has one top 10 in his last five starts here. For how fast he has been in the last two years, its surprising to see how he has finished here.
• Paul Menard- In his last ten starts at ISM Menard has one top ten and just four top 15. Maybe things will turn around now that he is with Wood Brothers?

2018 NASCAR Week 3: Las Vegas

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

By Richard Tix

What to Watch For?

Aero Advantage

• Last week was the first preview we got of the 2018 manufacturers not on a superspeedway, but it wasn't enough insight to really help us determine who has the early season upper hand. Most of that is due to the fact that AMS has more to do with tire ware and mechanical grip over the typical aero grip we see play a role at most tracks on the schedule. LVMS is one of those tracks that is more aero dependent then not. However, I still don't think this will be the end all be all for manufacturer tests. Last year Truex Jr won here followed by Kyle Larson (Chevy), Chase Elliott (Chevy), Joey Logano (Ford), and Brad Keselowski (Ford). Obviously, all of these guys had a good 2017 (other then JoLo), but Toyota who dominated most of the season didn't show up again until 6th place (Denny Hamlin). So, it isn't the only test, but it still could give us a bit of info for who will be fast in 2018 going forward.

Martin Truex Jr. vs Kyle Busch vs Jimmie Johnson

• I have a good feeling one, if not all, of these guys will bounce back this weekend at LVMS. JJ obviously needs it the most as his struggles far out weight the other two, but Martin and Kyle could use an early season spark as well. Martin started to get on a roll around this time last year (winning this race and leading 150 laps) and JJ used the early season to secure his spot in the playoffs (winning Texas and Bristol). So, will Toyota bounce back now that we're at an aero dependent track? Will the Chevy Camaro advantage people raved about all offseason finally show itself?

Will HMS show up?

• 2017 seems to be stuck on replay for Hendrick Motorsports. Chase Elliott is grinding through good finishes while most of the rest of the HMS stable struggle. It's very early, so this can be turned around, but that is also what makes this worth watching. Not a single HMS driver has a playoff point and they only have one top ten combined (Elliott), so it will be important that they start to turn it around this weekend.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Martin Truex Jr - Last year Martin threw down 150 laps lead on his way to an early season win at LVMS. He also was a runner up in 2015 and has yet to finish outside the top 15 with the No. 78.
• Brad Keselowski - BK has two wins in his nine LVMS starts which includes five straight top tens (four of those are top fives).
• Jimmie Johnson - JJ has four wins at LVMS, but his last was 2010. However, since 2010 he has four top tens, two of them are top fives, and all of them are 6th or better, in seven starts.

The Middle

• Joey Logano - JoLo is on the cusp of being in the "good" group, the only thing that eludes him is a win. In nine starts he has three top fives and five top tens (including four straight).

The Bad

• Kurt Busch - In Kurts last five races he has four finishes of 20th or worse. His lone bright spot was 2016 where he took the pole and finished 9th. 
• Clint Bowyer - Bowyer did have a top ten last year in his first season with SHR, but before that he had three top tens in 11 tries.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse Jr. has one top 15 and two top 20's in five races at LVMS. Not great. Lately he has been hampered by poor qualifying attempts 29th, 16th, and 31st in his last three.

2018 NASCAR Week 2: Atlanta

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway

By Richard Tix

What to Watch For?

This is Where the Season Starts

• The Daytona 500 is great. I mean, come on, its "the great American race" after all. The season technically kicks off with the Daytona 500, but we don't learn a ton at superspeedways, especially the first one of the season. This Sunday, story lines will start to form that we will see play out into mid season. Things such as which drivers look fast and which teams/manufacturers have the early season edge.

Who has the Manufacturer Advantage?

• Speaking of the season getting started, AMS will give us our first real look at which teams and manufacturers have an early season jump on speed at 1.5 mile tracks. Last year Ford started out fast, but Toyota wasn't far behind and by mid season we saw Toyota take off. This year all the talk has been around ALL of the manufacturers. The talk about Toyota is how fast they were in 2017 and if anyone will catch them in 2018? The talk with Chevy is the all new Camaro and if it will push them to the top? The talk with Ford is that they could be trailing behind because the Ford Fusion hasn't got a redesign as recent as Toyota and Chevy. So, what will come true? Our first sign will be at AMS, but the story lines change throughout the season so what is true now may not be true by the ASR.

Driver (current and past) Reactions to the Track Surface

• After the success of the AMS race last year, the track decided to put off the track resurfacing they were planning to be in place for this season. Drivers from current to past chimed in saying how great it was to have a surface that wore tires out and have cars fall off (basically, most of the drivers loved it). It was such a positive response that the resurface never happened. The question is, could it get put off another year? I will be interested to hear what drivers and fans alike have to say all weekend long. One thing in certain, the track does eventually need the resurface before it starts falling apart mid race, but balancing that with how many races they can get out of it before doing it is worth the watch.

Tire Watch 2018

• We have a 100% chance tires will be a story line this weekend at AMS. Why? Well read the above section if you haven't yet and then come back to this one. Back yet? Ok here we go. This track surface is going to eat these Goodyears up and tire strategy will play a large role in Sundays drama. How drivers and teams manage tire ware on Sunday could have a huge effect on where they finish and who takes a trip to victory lane.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

• Jimmie Johnson - New Camaro, five career AMS wins, two wins in his last three starts here, yeah I have JJ as a favorite this weekend.
• Kurt Busch - Will Ford hold him back? Last year in his first year with Ford at SHR he finished 7th but didn't have winning speed. He has nine top tens (two wins) in his last 13 starts at AMS.
• Kevin Harvick - Another Ford driver which will make the early season manufacturer story lines even more interesting, Harvick has nine top tens in his last eleven AMS races including two runner ups and two pole awards.

The Middle

• Kasey Kahne - Kasey has three AMS wins, including his clutch win in 2014 that got him into the then Chase (AMS was towards the end of the regular season then. However, he is with a new team and also has five finishes of 23rd or worse in his last eight starts.

The Bad

• Clint Bowyer - 17 career starts with just five top tens with his last one being in 2010. On the bright side he did finish 11th here last season.
• Austin Dillon - AD's best finish is 11th at AMS. His other four finishes are 19th or worse here.
• Paul Menard - New team, new number, and new manufacturer, maybe it means new results at AMS? If not, his past track record isn't great. Three top tens in his 16 career starts which his last being in 2012.

Weekend Links:

• Atlanta Motor Speedway Schedule
• Atlanta Motor Speedway Entry List