Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2017

Who Will be NASCAR's Champion in 2017?

By Richard Tix

On Friday I spoke about my 2017 NASCAR Playoff predictions that included the 16 drivers I picked to make the Playoffs and how confident I felt in those picks. I also added a few wildcards that could make a splash, so if you haven't yet go check out 2017 NASCAR Playoff Predictions.

Per natural progressions its only right that next up we battle how the Playoffs will actually play out. Now, if it's hard to predict 16 of 16 drivers that will make the playoffs that makes picking how the playoffs will go almost impossible. Yet, here we are.

To be honest, I do this almost as much for me as I do for you guys. I love making these predictions and setting it in stone and seeing how my feelings change all year long. It's a long and grueling schedule and by the time the Playoffs roll around it is easy to forget what you once predicted, so alas lets get it in writing below.

So, lets break down some past Champions and then I'll take a stab at the final eight, four, and Champion of the 2017 season.

NASCAR Champions 1994-2016
Chase Era 2.0 Champions 2014-2016
Year	Driver	WIN (%)	Top 5 (%)	Top 10 (%)	Start	Fin	Laps Lead
2016	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	11 (30.6%)	16 (52.8%)	12.1	14	737
2015	Ky. Busch	5 (20%)*	12 (48%)*	16 (64%)*	8.2*	10.8*	735*
2014	Harvick	5 (13.9%)	14 (38.88%)	20 (55.55%)	9.1	12.9	2137
14-16 Avg	3 Drivers	5 Wins	12.33 Top 5's	17.3 Top 10's	9.8	12.56	1,203
Original Chase Champions 2004-2013
2013	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.7	1985
2012	Keselowski	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	23 (63.9%)	16.2	10.1	735
2011	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	9 (25.0%)	19 (52.8%)	17.7	12	913
2010	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	17 (47.2%)	23 (63.9%)	9.4	12.2	1315
2009	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	8.2	11.1	2238
2008	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	15 (41.7%)	22 (61.1%)	8.5	10.5	1959
2007	Johnson	10 (27.8%)	20 (55.6%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.8	1290
2006	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	24 (66.7%)	10.8	9.7	854
2005	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	17 (47.2%)	25 (69.4%)	12	9.9	1845
2004	Ku Busch	3 (8.3%)	10 (27.8%)	21 (58.3%)	15	12.5	746
04-12 Avg	10 Drivers	5.9 Wins	14.6 Top 5's	22.9 Top 10's	11.74	11	1388
Pre-Chase Era 1994-2003
2003	Kenseth	1 (2.8%)	11 (30.6%)	25 (69.4%)	21.3	10.2	354
2002	Stewart	3 (8.3%)	15 (41.7%)	21 (58.3%)	13.2	12.6	745
2001	Gordon	6 (16.7%)	18 (50.0%)	24 (66.7%)	9.5	11	2320
2000	B Labonte	4 (11.8%)	19 (55.9%)	24 (70.6%)	11.6	7.4	465
1999	Jarrett	4 (11.8%)	24 (70.6%)	29 (85.3%)	13.2	6.8	1061
1998	Gordon	7 (20.6%)	18 (52.9%)	21 (61.8%)	7.4	12.9	1319
1997	Gordon	10 (31.2%)	22 (68.8%)	23 (71.9%)	9.4	9.6	1647
1996	T Labonte	2 (6.5%)	21 (67.7%)	24 (77.4%)	10.6	8.2	973
1995	Gordon	7 (22.6%)	17 (54.8%)	23 (74.2%)	5	9.5	2610
1994	Earnhardt	4 (12.9%)	20 (64.5%)	25 (80.6%)	15.3	8	1013
94-03 Avg	10 Drivers	4.8 Wins	18.5 Top 5's	23.9 Top 10's	11.65	9.62	1250.7

*Percentages based on the 25 races Ky. Busch ran in 2015

If we learned anything in three years it was that three years would not create enough statistics to give us any ideas of trends by NASCAR Champions. Year one went pretty smooth (Harvick was strong all year and won), year two a short seasoned driver won (though one of the best drivers, Kyle missed 11 races skewing stats), and last year JJ won in a pretty surprising fashion (some of the least impressive Championship stats we have seen). So, adding those things together and we have more questions then answers after three years into the newest Chase Era.

Well, now the era enters it's 2.0 version after NASCAR switched up the points system. Sure, the eliminations will be the same, but drivers will get to carry segment win points into the playoffs with them giving them more incentive to have a great regular season.

What I expect to see is regular season points do really help the strongest regular season drivers in the playoff, but the playoff still leaves plenty of "out of left field" moments to be had since a win still advances you automatically.

Through three years the statistics have started to sculpt the idea that Champions can win with less stats. Is that because it is easier or because everyone now can use so many different strategies to get there that stats can be misleading?

To me, it seems NASCAR included the points for segment wins into the 2017 points system so the strongest cars all year long (26 regular season races) have a better shot during the playoffs of advancing. It will not rule out the shocking win that automatically advances drivers, but it might even out the difference between old school and new school points systems a bit.

On thing is for sure, only time will tell how well the newest points structure will effect racing. We will see how it all plays out in 2017 and some extra data can be added to this elimination era and maybe trends can be found. In the end, this era maybe the hardest to put simple trends on because so much more goes into how strategies work even if NASCAR is trying to move back towards the regular season meaning more.


2017 Chase Predictions

Final Eight


Nothing too shocking here as Penske, JGR, and HMS make up the majority. Too be honest the one I am most worried about is Truex since Furniture Row is expanding into two race teams this year (No. 77). But, by the time the Playoffs roll around things should be smoothed out leaving only the surprise winner or terrible round to dismantle this final eight.

Drivers: Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, and Chase Elliott

Final Four


Three eliminations already have taken place (four if you include the Playoffs being the first). What are the chances of having all of these right? Last year I picked JoLo (correct), Jimmie Johnson (correct), Brad Keselowski (incorrect), and Denny Hamlin (incorrect). When it comes to picking Penske and JGR drivers, its a shot in the barrel and I went the wrong way. This year HMS is missing out (making this an easy target to be wrong) and only one JGR car (which we have seen hasn't happened often). These four were all fast in 2016 and could leave us with a zero Chevy title race in Miami (Ford EcoBoost would be a happy camper if this were the final four come race 36).

Drivers: Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski

2017 Champion


Last year I predicted JoLo to win his first title if he didn't cause a ruckus like what happened in 2015 with Matt Kenseth. Well, he did stay pretty darn clean and was still short of a Championship -- that's just how this format can play out. I'm going back to the well on this prediction this year and sticking with Logano. So many guys are hitting their strides in NASCAR right now and one of those guys is JoLo. I think a Championship is bound to happen for Joey, so why not this year?

Driver: Joey Logano


The fun in all of this? Anyone with a bit of a clue of who is in NASCAR and how the format works could give you a list and have just as much a chance at getting all the round right as I do. Their is no right or wrong answer to the question of "who will be NASCAR's Champion in 2017?" So, who do you have in the final four and who is your 2017 Champion?