Predicting a NASCAR Champion: 2016

Who Will be NASCAR's Champion in 2016?

By Richard Tix

As we head into the 2016 NASCAR season we have started to get a feel for the new Chase. We already know it is unpredictable because of the format, but will we start seeing some trends in how a driver becomes Champion? 

Kyle Busch winning in 2015 despite only running 25 of 36 races really hurts while trying to find trends. However, NBTW still broke down his stat's based on percentages so we might be able to look at how well he would have run for a full season. 

It's a fun way to look back at the past Champions, but in the end can you really decide what makes a Champion? Let's take a look back at this era, the Chase era before it, and the 10 years before the Chase era started and look at how the drivers did for the full season.

Maybe then you can decide what makes a Champion?

NASCAR Champions 1994-2015
Chase Era 2.0 Champions 2014-2015
Year	Driver	WIN (%)	Top 5 (%)	Top 10 (%)	Start	Fin	Laps Lead
2015	Ky. Busch	5 (20%)*	12 (48%)*	16 (64%)*	8.2*	10.8*	735*
2014	Harvick	5 (13.9%)	14 (38.88%)	20 (55.55%)	9.1	12.9	2137
14-15 Avg	2 Drivers	5 Wins	13 Top 5's	18 Top 10's	8.65	11.85	1,436
Original Chase Champions 2004-2013
2013	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.7	1985
2012	Keselowski	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	23 (63.9%)	16.2	10.1	735
2011	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	9 (25.0%)	19 (52.8%)	17.7	12	913
2010	Johnson	6 (16.7%)	17 (47.2%)	23 (63.9%)	9.4	12.2	1315
2009	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	16 (44.4%)	24 (66.7%)	8.2	11.1	2238
2008	Johnson	7 (19.4%)	15 (41.7%)	22 (61.1%)	8.5	10.5	1959
2007	Johnson	10 (27.8%)	20 (55.6%)	24 (66.7%)	9.8	10.8	1290
2006	Johnson	5 (13.9%)	13 (36.1%)	24 (66.7%)	10.8	9.7	854
2005	Stewart	5 (13.9%)	17 (47.2%)	25 (69.4%)	12	9.9	1845
2004	Ku Busch	3 (8.3%)	10 (27.8%)	21 (58.3%)	15	12.5	746
04-12 Avg	10 Drivers	5.9 Wins	14.6 Top 5's	22.9 Top 10's	11.74	11	1388
Pre-Chase Era 1994-2003
2003	Kenseth	1 (2.8%)	11 (30.6%)	25 (69.4%)	21.3	10.2	354
2002	Stewart	3 (8.3%)	15 (41.7%)	21 (58.3%)	13.2	12.6	745
2001	Gordon	6 (16.7%)	18 (50.0%)	24 (66.7%)	9.5	11	2320
2000	B Labonte	4 (11.8%)	19 (55.9%)	24 (70.6%)	11.6	7.4	465
1999	Jarrett	4 (11.8%)	24 (70.6%)	29 (85.3%)	13.2	6.8	1061
1998	Gordon	7 (20.6%)	18 (52.9%)	21 (61.8%)	7.4	12.9	1319
1997	Gordon	10 (31.2%)	22 (68.8%)	23 (71.9%)	9.4	9.6	1647
1996	T Labonte	2 (6.5%)	21 (67.7%)	24 (77.4%)	10.6	8.2	973
1995	Gordon	7 (22.6%)	17 (54.8%)	23 (74.2%)	5	9.5	2610
1994	Earnhardt	4 (12.9%)	20 (64.5%)	25 (80.6%)	15.3	8	1013
94-03 Avg	10 Drivers	4.8 Wins	18.5 Top 5's	23.9 Top 10's	11.65	9.62	1250.7

*Percentages based on the 25 races Ky. Busch ran in 2015

As it was last year, it is still too early to tell how the statistics will play out during the new era. It is pretty obvious that the numbers will be down from what was needed during the "points only" days. However, I am not sure that will mean the current Champions won't be as deserving. I think that will be the point that will be up for debate, who is deserving?

A points Champion will always be the most fair compared to a "playoff," but it also takes the excitement away many times. Odds are point's Championships will be decided early more time's then not, leaving the last few races "pointless" to casual fans. 

Most Major American sports have a playoff of some sort because it is not only entertaining, but a great way to prove teams under pressure during the most important time of the year. Is it fair that the best regular season team has a chance to not win the title? Technically no, but that is part of "sport" in my opinion. 

Times change and NASCAR is trying to adapt. Sure, the "only points system" would be fantastic, and I would truly enjoy them, but I think NASCAR is staying ahead of the curve by changing. While more and more of NASCAR's old school fan base leaves the sport (choice or old age), the way of looking at the Championship also changes. If NASCAR waits until all the old school fans are gone to change to a playoff, then there will be no new ones here to keep the sport alive.

So, it hurts me to say it, but NASCAR will never go back to a point's only system. NASCAR has to keep changing, keep adapting, but will also try to keep the past alive through visiting old tracks like Darlington and Martinsville while hopefully bringing new ones in like Iowa Speedway (still praying for this). Change isn't easy, but many of NASCAR's changes are to try and give fans a better chance to see great racing and excitement every week.

Since it is sticking around at least for awhile, how do we determine the 2016 Champion? Well that is up to how you want to look at it. Here is a look at my predictions (if you need a look at who I think will make the Chase take a look at 2016 NASCAR Chase Predictions):

2016 Chase Predictions

Final Eight

Photo: Rainier Ehrhardt/NASCAR via Getty Images

A few of these guys made it to the final eight last year, so they know how to get it done (five of the eight spots made the last eight in 2015). Also, you can see a trend of Penske, JGR, HMS, and Harvick again, which has been the norm the past few years. 

Drivers: Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Carl Edwards

Final Four

None of the four drivers I have in the last four made it in 2015, however two of them are repeat drivers from 2014 (JoLo and Hamlin). I think this time Hamlin gets in with a strong overall season and will be a tough contender compared to how he got in during 2014. Really, any mix of a JGR driver or two could make it which makes it hard to predict which one will. 

Drivers: Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin

2016 Champion

Photo: Peter Casey, USA TODAY Sports

Last year he was one of the best drivers all season long but the new Chase and some run in's with other drivers held him back. Can you imagine how many less Championships Dale Earnhardt would have had if they ran the new Chase? I have to think eventually Terry Labonte would have got fed up with his aggressive style and punted him like Matt Kenseth did. Now, I like having a mix of drivers from both driving styles, but it is fun to think about what a mess it would have been. So, can JoLo stay clean during the Chase to win his first Cup title?

Driver: Joey Logano


Just like last season, this new Chase is unpredictable. You can take a shot at it but it will be tough in February to predict how the Chase will go. I once again think a number of drivers can win it in 2016. Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick would be my tier one. Tier two would be Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, and Kyle Busch. I think the Champion will come from one of those seven. Now, I don't think it is out of the question to see a guy like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kurt Busch, or Matt Kenseth win, either. So, who do you think wins the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship?