2016 NASCAR Chase Predictions

Which Drivers Will Make the Chase in 2016?

By Richard Tix

In the new NASCAR Chase Era, nothing is easy about predicting who will be in the Chase. A good chunk of guys are locks to make it, win or not. However, predicting the bottom half of guys sometimes is tricky. In 2014 NBTW hit on 14 of 16 drivers. In 2015 I hit on 12 of 16 (missed on Stewart, Kahne, Larson, and Biffle). So, it looks like it can't get too much worse than last year.

Getting the 16 right is just the start. The fun begin's after the 16 drivers are set and I begin to look at (guess) who will advance. It's almost like picking a March Madness Bracket for college basketball, you can try and research it but it never seems to be enough when crap hits the fan.

So for the third straight year lets try and take our best guess at the Chase drivers and who will make it. I will again label all 16 plus an extra couple with categories. IN (locked in the Chase without the season even starting), GREAT (almost a lock, but crazier things have happened), GOOD (I'm pretty confident, but some season's they don't win so they may have to get in on points), and OK (these guys are a bit of a gamble).

After that I will list those few underdog drivers. Guys like Rookies or road course specialist that could steal a win at certain tracks, but if they don't there odds are very low of making it.

Who Will Make the 2016 Chase?

16 drivers now have a chance to get in, and predicting who will make it will be as tough as ever. NASCAR Behind the Wall will list 16 drivers and how there chances stack up (IN, GREAT, GOOD,OK)

1. Joey Logano (IN)- One of the rising stars in NASCAR and better drivers of the new Chase Era.
2. Kevin Harvick (IN)- He has been red hot since joining SHR and should easily lock himself in with at the very least one win (Phoenix anyone?).
3. Jimmie Johnson (IN)- He hasn't run well under this format when it comes to the Chase, but he will easily lock himself in this year and it might be his season.
4. Kyle Busch (IN)- Coming off an impressive 25 race 2015, Rowdy should once again have a solid season with multiple wins.
5. Brad Keselowski (IN)- Its tough to think BK will only get 1 win again in 2016. He was pretty strong in 2015 but just didn't have luck on his side. 
6. Denny Hamlin (GREAT)- I really think Denny will be a lock this year and I have him in my final four drivers.
7. Carl Edwards (GREAT)- JGR was too good to end 2015 to not think all of them will easily get a win and get into the Chase.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr (GREAT)- Junior has been so good lately that it is hard to see him not getting in with a win, or the very least points. 
9. Matt Kenseth (GOOD)- No way I will be betting against JRG to not get all four drivers in the Chase.
10. Kurt Busch (GOOD)- More often then not Kurt comes away with at least one win during any given season. He should be back in the Chase again in 2016.
11. Martin Truex Jr (OK)- Truex had a fantastic 2015 and moves from Chevy to Toyota in 2016. Will the move give this team a slow start after they thrived during the early season last year?
12. Kyle Larson (OK)- After a rough 2015, can Larson finally bounce back and regain the optimism he has entering 2015 after his ROY 2014 season?
13. Ryan Newman (OK)- Newman has been as steady as they come the past two years, but the lack of wins always leaves him fighting for a bubble spot which makes him hard to trust.
14. Chase Elliott (OK)- I think Chase will have a legitimate chance at making the Chase in his rookie season. Jeff Gordon has left, Clint Bowyer is with a small team, and Tony Stewart hasn't been good. Which leaves him fighting with guys like Kahne, Menard, McMurray, Biffle, and Dillon. 
15. A.J. Allmendinger (OK)- After two rough outing's for Dinger at the road courses in 2015 which he started on the pole, I think he will steal one in 2016. Its tough to stay confident in the selection, but all it takes is one win.
16. Kasey Kahne (OK)- It's tough to put the finger on Kahne. He is in a great ride, but sometimes looks like he is the fourth wheel. I think he will put enough together to make the Chase in 2016.

The top 16 seems to be a "safe bet" list. NASCAR Behind the Wall will take a better look at some underdogs who could make a splash in this years 16 car Chase field.

• Jamie McMurray- Last year he was the best driver to not get a win during the regular season. The same consistency would most likely get him into the Chase again in 2016.
• Ryan Blaney- Another rookie with a shot to make a splash. He had some nice runs in 2015 part time, and this year gets a full time ride back with Wood Brothers. 
• Greg Biffle- Biffle's prime is past him and RFR struggles have not helped. However, he is a vet that still knows his way around tracks so if RFR can just find some type of speed he could surprise, but my money isn't on that.
• Paul Menard- He made the Chase last year with his consistency to finish top 15. If he keeps it together like that in 2016 he will be right on the 15, 16, 17, 18 bubble again.

2016 Random Predictions

Who Win's the 2016 Rookie of the Year Award?

• This year NASCAR has a nice crop of rookies to fight for the title. Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, and Brian Scott headline the group. For the most part I see this as a two way race between Elliott and Blaney. Buescher has an outside shot, but he just doesn't have the equipment that the other two will be in. I think Elliott and Blaney will both have great season's but only one can win.
• Edge: Chase Elliott

Will Tony Stewart Get Another Win Before He Retires? Will He Get to 50?

• I asked the question "when will Tony Stewart get to 50 career wins" and ever since he has been win-less. Is NBTW a jinx? It really is going to be a sad ending to a great career if he can't get it going in 2016, but I do not have much optimism left after staying positive the last few seasons on him. 
• Edge: No and No

Will a Chase Spot be Stolen at a Road Course?

• In 2015 AJ Allmendinger won a road course and stole a Chase spot in the first all new Chase. Last year no one technically "stole a win" unless you count Kyle Busch's first win of 2015. The road courses open up a Chase spot to a few extra drivers that can dominate these tracks with smaller teams but it won't always happen.
• Edge: Yes

Biggest Surprise in 2016?

• I think Denny Hamlin might have one of the better seasons of any driver, but that might not be bold enough. Larson and Elliott will both have good years and make the Chase.

Biggest Disappointment in 2016?

• Matt Kenseth. It won't be a terrible season, but with all the success the other three will have around him, it will look a bit worse than it is for Kenseth.

Finishing Order of HMS Drivers?

• Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Chase Elliott, and then Kasey Kahne

Finishing Order of JGR Drivers?

• Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and then Matt Kenseth

Finishing Order of Team Penske (including Blaney at Wood Brothers) Drivers?

• Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Blaney

Finishing Order of SHR Drivers?

• Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, and Danica Patrick

Finishing Order of RCR Drivers?

• Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, and Austin Dillon

Finishing Order of RFR Drivers?

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Greg Biffle, and Trevor Bayne

The preseason is about over and the green flag will soon fly for the Daytona 500. That means all these predictions will be put to the test (and the ones that a wrong hopefully forgotten!). 2016 should be another fun season so keep coming back and checking out all the latest content on NASCAR Behind the Wall!