Rowdy Return, Soph. Slump, and 1.5 Mile Domination
By Richard Tix
Hot Laps will be a weekly article on news in the world of NASCAR. I will write these articles any weeks where I have a thought or opinion on NASCAR news that is worth sharing. So, this could be an every week thing, or just every few weeks. Its an opinion piece, so it is open to discussion and debate and would love to here your thoughts.
Previous Hot Lap: Week 11
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The Rowdy Return
This week Kyle Busch announced his come back to a Cup car. This coming after he had spent the whole NASCAR Cup season on the sidelines due to his XFINITY wreck at Daytona to start 2015.
Kyle Busch has a ton of followers but at the same time a ton of fans that do not care for him, but most can agree they are happy to see him back. Guys like Kyle are great for the sport and as with any sport, we must have guys or teams that are Love/Hate. It fuels a sport and fuels discussion and when a guy like Kyle with talent like Kyle is out everyone gets eager to get him back.
So this week Kyle will be back in the #18 at Charlotte for the All Star Race. It seems like it is a great spot for him to come back as many of his fans will be there to support him. Also, it is a non points race so it gives him and the team a chance to "test" out how ready he may or not be.
So, Kyle may or may not be a huge factor this weekend but it will give him and his team a good measuring stick as to where he may or may not be on his road back in the seat. It will be nice to see him back in the #18 and hopefully things go well. Good luck Kyle.
The Rowdy Chase
After talking about his comeback lets move on to bigger concerns in NASCAR about Kyle Busch. NASCAR announced that if Kyle wins this season and he gets into the top 30 that they will grant a waiver into the Chase.
This coming after earlier this season NASCAR also granted a waiver for Kurt Busch when he was suspended for a few races for off the track issues. At some point, when does NASCAR stop handing out waivers?
My biggest issue here is that it was 11 races to start the season. My view is, most fans of NASCAR want outsiders to view racing as a sport (it is), but in sport injuries always effect a team or individuals chances at a Championship. Injuries are rough luck, they suck, and they are unexpected, but they happen in sports and it can make or break a season.
So, if you want the world or sports to take NASCAR seriously then this injury must effect Kyle whether it is "fair" or not. He was out 11 races, or 30.5% of the season. He had to sit out 42.3% if the regular season and yet NASCAR will give him a shot at the Chase.
When a NFL team has to play without Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers for 7 games of the season will the NFL just say, its ok if you win 50% of your games you get a playoff spot? No. The NFL has a bunch of issues, but issues with granting waivers to teams for playoff spots for a star player getting injured is baffling. That is what NASCAR has on its hands.
I truly feel bad for Kyle Busch. The injury wasn't his fault and there is nothing he could do about it. But, that is sports. What his focus should be is to get better and ramp up for next season to make a title run.
NASCAR has stumbled over rules and gray area and it is constantly turning fans off. If NASCAR wants to not only keep fans but also bring them in then they need to start thinking about how outsiders see the sport. I for one, can not see this being a good image for outside fans on the "sport" of NASCAR.
1.5 Mile domination
NASCAR has made stops at four 1.5 mile tracks in 2015 (Atlanta, Vegas, Texas, and Kansas). So far NASCAR has only seen two different drivers win at these four 1.5 mile tracks. Those drivers would be Jimmie Johnson (3) and Kevin Harvick (1).
The "cookie cutter" 1.5 mile tracks have been all about the #48 and #4. Even in the three races Johnson won, Harvick finished 2nd in all three. This domination begs the question, can anyone stop these two on NASCAR's most abundant tracks?
During the last 10 race Chase, half of the tracks are 1.5 mile stops. This seems to set up Harvick and Johnson as clear cut favorites if no one closes the gaps on this style track. One of those 5 1.5 mile tracks is the series finale at Miami Homestead to decide who is the 2015 Sprint Cup Champion.
So, who might be close? Brad Keselowski has finishes of 9th, 7th, 5th, and 7th. Joey Logano has finishes of 4th, 10th, 4th, and 5th. Martin Truex Jr has finishes of 6th, 2nd, 9th, and 9th. Dale Earnhardt Jr has finishes of 3rd, 4th, 3rd, and 3rd. So, if JJ and Harvick are the favorites what two out of the bunch can make it to the end with them?
Last year Penske was strong all season so they might be favorites for the Ford lovers, but Dale Earnhardt Jr has a huge following and you can't ignore three 3rd place finishes in four 1.5's. Truex might be the odd guy out, but only because he hasn't won in 2015 yet, but we all watched Ryan Newman do the impossible and make it to Miami without one.
Right now, I would play my title favorites by the favorites on 1.5 mile tracks, which means Harvick, Johnson, Earnhardt, Logano, Keselowski, and Truex are all front runners. It may not be the only thing you need to do to win a Championship, but 1.5 mile dominance will play a large role in it.
Sophomore Slump?
Is the Sophomore Slump a real thing in NASCAR? If you ask Kyle Larson he will most likely attribute it to something else, but maybe superstition and sayings are a real thing. Through 11 races Larson has 3 top 10's and 0 top 5's. He is currently 22nd in points and things just seem to not be going his way like they did in his 2014 season.
This after an impressive rookies season that many thought (including myself) he would build upon. So, am I writing Kyle off so early in the season? Not at all. I will stand strong next to my statement he will win a race or two this season, but we can not just shut the door on how rough his 2015 season has been so far.
Last year through 11 races he climbed up to 12th in the standings with 5 top 10's and 2 top 5's which included a runner up finish at Fontana. His 2014 average finish of 15.09 (through 11 races) is down to 18.64.
On the bright side, Larson finished 2014 with top 10 finishes at Charlotte and Dover in the Fall and those two tracks are next up. So, it will be interesting to watch how he handles the next handful of races (including Pocono) where he also ran well in 2014. If he is going to snap out of it, it might be in the next stretch so stay the course Larson fans.
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