2014 Chase Predictions in Review

Review of NASCAR Behind the Wall's Predictions

By Richard Tix

Going into a whole New Chase Era in 2014 I decided to take a stab at who would make the Chase and some random predictions. As I can not see into the future, I obviously was off on some of these. However, it is always fun to look back on how you were feeling before the season and how things changed. So lets look back at the 2014 Chase Predictions and take a quick review on them.

Who Will Make the Chase?

Who I was right on?

• I did get 14 of the 16 drivers correct. I did a 16 drivers section which were my safe bets and who I was taking to get in. Then I listed an extra six drivers that were long shots (which is where I had AJ Allmendinger. Who I missed on? Clint Boywer and Tony Stewart missed and Allmendinger and Aric Almirola made it in on wins. 
• Preseason I think most figured Smoke should have no problem getting into the Chase. He had a win in each of his 15 season's, so it is still crazy to think that streak ended.

Random Predictions

(Some of these are way off and some not so much)

Who Will Have the Better Season Kevin Harvick or Ryan Newman?

• "These two drivers pretty much swapped spots from SHR and RCR. So they will be easy to compare all season. But who will do better in 2014? On the outside it looks like an easy answer, it has to be Harvick right? Well, NASCAR Behind the Wall is going to go out on a limb and say this race will be a lot closer than some think. We are going to give the slight edge to Ryan Newman in a shocker. "Go big or go home" right?"
• I gave Newman the slight edge. If you look at where they finished the standings it doesn't look too bad. But lets be honest, Harvick easily had the better season even before he won the Championship. Not to take anything from Newman, he had a good first year with RCR.

Who Will Run Better in 2014, Danica or Stenhouse?

• "Danica is being pushed off to the side at SHR so will it make her want it more, or will she not receive the attention she needs to learn? Stenhouse had a quality rookie year, but many rookies are coming in 2014 and will try and show him up. I still say Ricky will make an improvement on last year, however slight it is, it will be enough to out duel Danica."
• Well, I picked Ricky but he barely edged Danica in the points this year. However, I also thought he would make an improvement in 2014 and if anything he regressed. Year three will be a big step for both of these drivers.

Who Has the Best Chance to Get Every Team Driver into the Chase? (Hendrick or SHR)

• "Hendrick should win this one pretty easy, but Dale Jr needs to win in 2014. Even if he doesn't he should have enough points to steal a spot after all the winners are decided. Danica makes this a no brainer towards Hendrick, but can she steal a super speedway win? (JGR was left out, they should hands down all make it in)"
• I obviously went HMS here, which they did get all four in. Going into the season its crazy this was a question. A lot of it had to do with some subpar performances by Kahne and Earnhardt Jr lately. Jr came out strong and put this question to rest earlier. However, HMS didn't make much of a splash in the Chase itself.

Who Wins First in 2014? Harvick or Kurt Busch

• "NASCAR Behind the Wall has already taken an in depth look at this with the article SHR Fresh Faces. As we found out in the research, it truly is a tossup. This is for predictions though so someone has to win right?"
• I went Harvick with the slight edge on this one. Which was correct when he won at Phoenix. Harvick by far had a better season than Kurt in every way possible.

Who Wins ROY Honors?

• "2014's ROY class is huge! Before it got to such a large number of rookie drivers it was already going to be a good year for rookies. The class started with Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson. Most likely the end ROY fight will come down to them because they have started out in the best position (better cars and teams)."
• Its crazy to me I went with Dillon, since I have been following Larson for a few years now, but I guess I thought Larson might be up and down in his first year. Well, he showed some flashes of being a star on the Cup level. Dillon had a fine season, but Larson was more flashy. It will be fun to watch him develop over the years.

How will Dale Earnhardt Jr do in 2014, he and Letarte's last Hurrah? Will He Have Multiple Wins?

• "Letarte is going to the booth in 2015 and leaving Jr as CC. Letarte is known for helping turn around a struggling Jr and making him relevant again. Yet, they haven't found a way to find wins. After coming off a good 2013 season, will they make one last run at glory? I think that both will use this as a chance for a no pressure situation and take advantage. I think Jr will come up with multiple wins in 2014 and leave people wondering, what if they had one more year?"
• Well I was on target with this one. Jr came out strong at Daytona and then won a few more races along the way making it a 4 win season. It will be interesting to see how the 88 team does early on without LeTarte.

Who Ends with More Wins in 2014, Kyle or Kurt Busch?

• "Kurt Busch is in a new ride with new equipment in 2014, and it might help him get back to his winning ways. Kurt should get a win in 2014, but I think Kyle might end the season with the most wins in NASCAR."
• This prediction would have been fine if I stopped before saying Kyle might have the most wins in 2014. Still, Kyle and Kurt both only had one win this season, even if Kyle had the much better season.

How Many Races Before Tony Stewart Gets to 50 Wins? (2 More Wins)

• "This is a shot out of a cannon guess (Who else has a shot at 50 in there career?). He normally doesn't get hot until summer, but he has had seasons where he starts off well, so its a toss up. So lets just take a shot in the dark: 20."
• I didn't see this coming, a zero win season for Smoke. I guess this might be a question in the 2015 Chase Predictions.

Who Finishes Highest At Joe Gibbs Racing?

• "Its like shooting fish in a barrel, who will be the lucky one (or unlucky if you are an actual fish). Kenseth has been the most consistent in the Chase when it comes to finishing high, but its a new era. Denny Hamlin has been the second best at finishing high. But, Kyle Busch (the inconsistent Chase finisher) could gain the most in this new format with an emphasis on winning. I'm going to go on a limb here."
• This question was who finishes lowest at JGR, right? I really thought Kyle Busch was going to break out in 2014. I don't think the slow start for JGR as a whole helped, but it definitely wasn't what I was expecting out of Rowdy.

Will a Chase Spot be Stolen at a Road Course?

• "So will a guy like Ambrose, Martin Truex, or Allmendinger who may not have won before turning right steal a potential Chase spot? AJ could definitely win at a non road course, but his run in Nationwide last year was pretty impressive to think he could maybe steal one on a road course. Ambrose is always a threat at road courses. (This is not to say these drivers couldn't steal one elsewhere). No, I think Ambrose will be shut out again in 2014 at road courses. Look out for AJ this season though."
• Well, I said to watch out for AJ, but I did predict that a underdog win wouldn't come this season at a road course, which was wrong. Once again these two races were exciting to watch.

Biggest Surprise Driver in 2014?

• "Brian Vickers or AJ Almendinger. Also, Ryan Newman with a multi win season."
• Well, AJ had a great season after getting a win and Newman go into the Chase, but didn't win once. So I will call this one a push.

Most Disappointing Driver in 2014?

• "Kevin Harvick. Going on a limb here, but after a great 2013 he has a lot of pressure to perform at SHR."
• I did state in other articles that I thought Harvick would still make the Chase and that he would have a fine transition, however I did think he would have a down year getting adjusted. But, I couldn't have been more wrong about his season. Harvick was one of the fastest cars all year and showed that down the stretch.