Camping World RV Sales 301
Week 19
By Richard Tix
18 races into the 26 race to the Chase and 11 drivers have a win and are virtually locked for the last 10 races. 6 of those 11 drivers are a for sure lock having multiple wins yet guys like Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, and Kasey Kahne still do not have a win.
Going into NH 16 different current drivers (including Jeff Burton and Joe Nemechek) have a career win here at Loudon. Included in that list is 2014 drivers with zero wins Jeff Burton (4 NH wins), Ryan Newman (3), Tony Stewart (3), Clint Bowyer (2), Greg Biffle (1), Matt Kenseth (1), Brian Vickers (1), Joe Nemecheck (1), and Kasey Kahne (1). That is 17 wins at Loudon from drivers who have yet to win this season; a season where a win pretty much gets you into the Chase.
With that being said, will NH end up being another wild card race like Daytona was last week and provide us with a first time 2014 winner? I think guys like Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Clint Bowyer have to be on everyone's radar this weekend. If we have another repeat winner in 2014 then NASCAR will have 7 races left and 5 spots open for the Chase. The dash will begin to either lock yourself in with a win or get the best spot in the points standings.
So, as I have mentioned before (The Fight for Points) points will still matter in NASCAR and wins are not everything. Sure, wins make everything easier (which they should) but you will also be looked at and maybe even get in the Chase because of points. Once in the Chase you only have 3 tries each round to get a win. That means in the first round 9 of 12 drivers at the very least will move on because of points (not a win). As we move on the percentage chance that a driver still in the Chase winning goes down (Basic math, 4/43 is less of a chance then 16/43). So yes, wins will automatically move you to the next round, but don't tell me points wont matter. I will also not that in my opinion, guys who are running consistently and are doing will in the points standings will be the guys to look out for. These teams are showing chemistry by finishing well week after week. The driver is finishing well, the pit crew is having good stops, and the crew cheif is making great calls. What past Champion didn't have all of this going for them when they won the Championship?
Now, onto this weeks New Hampshire preview.
Going into NH 16 different current drivers (including Jeff Burton and Joe Nemechek) have a career win here at Loudon. Included in that list is 2014 drivers with zero wins Jeff Burton (4 NH wins), Ryan Newman (3), Tony Stewart (3), Clint Bowyer (2), Greg Biffle (1), Matt Kenseth (1), Brian Vickers (1), Joe Nemecheck (1), and Kasey Kahne (1). That is 17 wins at Loudon from drivers who have yet to win this season; a season where a win pretty much gets you into the Chase.
With that being said, will NH end up being another wild card race like Daytona was last week and provide us with a first time 2014 winner? I think guys like Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Clint Bowyer have to be on everyone's radar this weekend. If we have another repeat winner in 2014 then NASCAR will have 7 races left and 5 spots open for the Chase. The dash will begin to either lock yourself in with a win or get the best spot in the points standings.
So, as I have mentioned before (The Fight for Points) points will still matter in NASCAR and wins are not everything. Sure, wins make everything easier (which they should) but you will also be looked at and maybe even get in the Chase because of points. Once in the Chase you only have 3 tries each round to get a win. That means in the first round 9 of 12 drivers at the very least will move on because of points (not a win). As we move on the percentage chance that a driver still in the Chase winning goes down (Basic math, 4/43 is less of a chance then 16/43). So yes, wins will automatically move you to the next round, but don't tell me points wont matter. I will also not that in my opinion, guys who are running consistently and are doing will in the points standings will be the guys to look out for. These teams are showing chemistry by finishing well week after week. The driver is finishing well, the pit crew is having good stops, and the crew cheif is making great calls. What past Champion didn't have all of this going for them when they won the Championship?
Now, onto this weeks New Hampshire preview.
The Good, Middle, and Bad
(This is just a review of each drivers recent past performance, generally about 5-10 past races)
The Good
- Denny Hamlin- 16 starts, 10 top 10's, 7 top 5's, and 2 wins. DH has been very good at Loudon in his career. Last year as he struggled to get back to form he finishes 21st and 12th but in 2012 he had finishes of 2nd and 1st.
- Jimmie Johnson- I get bored putting JJ in my "good" category, because lets be honest he could be in almost every "good" list or at the least in my "middle" list. But when you have 17 top 10's in 24 starts its pretty easy to make that list. Not to mention his 3 career wins and his 4 straight top 10's.
- Jeff Gordon- When you look at career stats from each track its hard not to put a guy like JG on most "good" lists. That's why I tend to break it up by resent results. But Gordon has not finished about 15th since 2004 (25th). In his 38 starts at Loudon he only has 3 finishes outside the top 25 and only 6 outside the top 20.
- Extra Credit-Tony Stewart
The Middle
- Brad Keselowski- His results while with the #2 team are almost good enough to be in the "good" category (6 races, 3 top 5's, 4 top 10's, 11th and 35th). He also finished 6th when he was with James Finch in his first Cup start at Loudon. BK has yet to win at Loudon but don't write him off, he is due.
The Bad
- Marcus Ambrose- Marcus gets up on the wheel at road courses but he doesn't have the same kind of results at Loudon. In his last 10 he has one top 10 and an average finish of 21.9. Normally anything outside of an average finish of 20 is not something to be proud of.
- Aric Almirola- Five career starts at Loudon and Aric has one top 5. That's the good side of the story. The other side of the story is that his other four finishes were all outside of the top 20.
- Paul Menard- Its not that he has been terrible at Loudon but in his last 10 starts he only has one top 15 (12th in 2012). But, in his last 6 he doesn't have a finish about 24th and 4 of those were in the top 20. Just don't expect him to have a great chance at a top 10 on Sunday.
- Rusty Wallace won the first race at Loudon in 1993. He started 33rd.
- Most cautions was the second race at Loudon, 1994, 17 for 78 laps. Ricky Rudd won the race.
- Toyota have won the last three Loudon races before that Chevy had won 6 straight.
- A Cup race at Loudon has been won from the Pole position five times (Newman-2011, Clint Bowyer-2007, Kevin Harvick-2006, Newman-2002, and Jeff Gordon-1998).
- In 1999 Jeff Burton won after starting 38th (farthest back a winner has started).
- Of current drivers Jeff Gordon has led the most laps (1352) over Tony Stewart (1302).
- Ryan Newman has won the Pole at Loudon an astounding 7 times in his 24 starts.
- 5 current full time drivers have 3 total wins at Loudon (Gordon, Newman, Johnson, Stewart, and Ku Busch). Jeff Burton (part time) has 4 career Loudon wins.
- Jimmie Johnson has the longest current streak of top 10's (four).
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