The Race to the Chase Heats up in the Second Half
By Richard Tix
NASCAR is 13 races into the 2014 season and we have already seen 10 different winners. The season started with drivers going 7 for 7 in the first 7 races (or in other words, 7 different drivers won in the first 7 races). This got media and fans alike asking, "we could get to 16!"
Somewhere along the way people forgot that the more winners we get the better chance of a driver who has won to win again (multiple times). The way I have looked at it, NASCAR can maybe, maybe get to 16, but over 16 is going to take a huge feat. Now, I may end up wrong, but if I am I will be the first to tell you (and you can call me out if you want) but I'm sticking to my guns.
So, we are at 10 (3 of which have 2 wins), now's as good as ever to look at the win less drivers and who may have a shot at getting one in the next 16 races. This could also help open the eye's on the fact that more than 16 winners will be hard to come by in 13 races.
Matt Kenseth
Lets start with NASCAR's points leader, Matt Kenseth. The write up on Kenseth will be short and that's because Kenseth will be apart of the winning crew. I don't have to take a look at the specific tracks he needs to get it done at or his best chance's because its almost a fact, he will win. Kenseth has been too good not to get a win in 2014. Just like Gordon, he has been too consistent to stay win less by the time the Chase rolls around.
Tony Stewart
Smoke is 21st in points after 13 races. Is his leg injury still lingering? Whats wrong with him? Nothing. I think between his leg issues and the fact that he has been a slow starter in his career just added all up. Summer is when things normally heat up for Smoke. Adding to his confidence is the fact that he just stepped back into a Sprint Car for the first time since his accident. Just this past week at a demanding Dover track he finished 7th and showed signs of hope.
Pocono Raceway is up next and will also be back once more before the Chase starts. Smoke has a average finish of 6.9 in his last 10 races there including 1 win, 6 top 5's, and 8 top 10's. Next up is Michigan (which also has two races before the Chase). Smoke has a average finish of 10 in his last 9 but no win's. He does have 1 win in 29 career attempts, but his chances are not great. He does have 7 top 10's in his last 9 races at MIS so he could get lucky.
Sonoma and Watkin's Glenn are also part of the next 13 races which will be a strong spot for Smoke. He has 5 career wins at Watkins Glenn so he will be a track favorite. He will also be a favorite at Indy as he has had 2 career wins and 11 top 10's in 15 starts. So, even though it has been a slow start for Stewart I do think he will get a win by the time the Chase rolls around.
The Biff has not had a great start to his 2014 contract year. It has been quite the ride so far and most of it hasn't been good. But, that does not mean he can not find a way to win in the next 13 races before the Chase starts. In fact, he has 5 wins at the next two tracks NASCAR heads to.
Not only does he have 5 wins at Pocono (1) and Michigan (4) but we go to these tracks twice before the Chase. The two road courses are not a strong point for Biffle, so we can make his Chase race 11 races instead of 13. He only has 3 races at Kentucky, but his average finish there also isn't the best.
For the record I am throwing Daytona out of these stats because it is too much of a toss up, I will discuss this at the end of the article. Biffle does have one win at Loudon, but overall it isn't one of his better tracks. Britsol, Atlanta, and Richmond are also nothing special for the Biff.
Overall, Biffle needs to get it done at Pocono or Michigan for his best chance at a win before the Chase. I wouldn't throw out Kentucky or Atlanta as they're tracks he could potentially have a fast car. I am unsure about Biffle's chances at a win this year though. The Roush team hasn't had a lot of speed this year and he has had a lot of rumors going around that he could be leaving (Roush Fenway Contract Talks). This may all be clouding his mind, or maybe he is on his downhill slide?
Is something different with Bowyer this year? It just seems like he hasn't been as easy going as most seasons and he seems to be struggling at the same time. Bowyer is now the MWR head dog, but Brian Vickers has seemed to take that roll on better. Clint is actually on a long win less streak going back 54 races (We're Going Streaking 2014).
Totally opposite of Biffle, Bowyer can be all but counted out of the next two races (Pocono and MIS) as he only has two career top 5's total at the two. But he does have a good shot at Sonoma if someone else doesn't steal a win there.
If he doesn't take the opportunity at Sonoma, the nest circled on his list is Loudon where he has won before. If Bowyer doesn't get it done at a road course, Daytona, or Loudon he will be "itching" to get a win in the last race before the Chase. Unlike what happened last year, it is no mystery that Bowyer can win at Richmond. In his 17 starts there he has 2 wins and 9 top 10's. Instead of having an indecent about trying to bring out a late caution, we could see the opposite happen with Bowyer leading the race and needing a win to get in. Wouldn't that be fun?
Here is the thing with Kahne, he has a win at a lot of the remaining tracks before the Chase. Pocono (2), Michigan (1), Sonoma (1), Loudon (1), Bristol (1), Atlanta (2), and Richmond (1). That means he has a win at 7 of the remaining 11 tracks in the next 13 races.
Just by looking at the stats you can tell Kahne has a shot of winning at any point, add that with the fact that he is in a Hendrick car and you have to think he will get a win eventually. But so far this season Kahne has been all but invisible.
Also, if you look farther into these stats he has up and down finishes at almost everyone of these places. So, he could get a win or he could finish 20th, its a fine line. If Kahne and the #5 team figure it out he could easily post a win at any of these tracks, but if they don't he could also end up win less.
In my preseason prediction (2014 Chase Predictions) I said "With a win in his last 3 seasons, and in a Hendrick car, Kahne should have no problem finding a win in 2014. He should make the Chase, but consistency will be what he needs when it starts," and I will stick by that. Also worth noting, I said he had a great shot at the Chase because of this statement. With how well the other three Hendrick drivers have done, I would say he has to turn it around eventually.
Ryan Newman, Brian Vickers, and Kyle Larson
The list gets thin early when you are trying to look at who will win in the next 13 races before the Chase starts. After Kenseth, Smoke, Biffle, Bowyer, and Kahne these are the guys we have left that I think have run well enough to find a win (possibly even Menard, but I have never thought of him as more than a guy who may win a couple in his career).
Newman has wins at a few of the remaining tracks including Pocono and MIS (I bring these up every time because NASCAR goes there 4 times in the nest 13 races so they play a huge role in the Chase from here on out). Newman's best shot has to be Loudon where he always seems to contend.
Vickers is having a come back season in 2014. Even though his comeback has been a great story he is still a long shot to win in the next 13 races. I have included him on this list just because he has the talent to do so.
Kyle Larson is also on this list because he has shown the talent to win in the Cup level. It may not happen this year, but he isn't just out on the track logging laps like many rookies do. Larson has shown time and time again this year that he is a quick learner and adjust's to these tracks quick. Those things alone could be the reason Larson wins, but in 13 races he will still be a long shot to win.
Closing Statements:
With ten winners already in the first half of the Chase Race (first 26 races before the final 10 Chase races start) I still do not see use heading into the playoff with more than 16 winners. Even if you take all 5 of the drivers I spotlighted (Kenseth, Smoke, Biffle, Bowyer, and Kahne) it still ends up being 15 and chance are one or more of them still won't win in the next 13.
One thing can change my opinion on how many drivers will win before the Chase and that is the big three (Daytona, Sonoma, and Watkin's Glenn). All of these tracks can be wild cards. The only way I see NASCAR having more then 16 winners at the start of the Chase is if 3 drivers not listed steal a win at there three tracks (example: McMurray wins Daytona, Ambrose wins Sonoma, and AJ Allmendinger wins Watkin's Glenn). If that happened, we would have 13 drivers with a win not even counting Kenseth (14), Smoke (15), or Kahne (16).
If drivers steal those tracks (which can easily happen at least at one of them) then we could have an exiting Richmond where drivers are either fighting for the 16th win or points to not be the 17th winner (but left out because of points).
Other then that scenario I do not see use having 16+ winners before the Chase starts. I do like Kenseth, Smoke, and Kahne (sticking to my guns) to get in for sure. I think Bowyer and Biffle both have an alright shot, but are no sure things. Whats great about Biffle and Bowyer is that they have totally different paths (different tracks) that they need to take to get a win. One will be looking more at the 1.5 (and larger) tracks and the other will be looking at a road course and some shorter tracks. No matter the outcome it will be an interesting story line to watch the second half of the "Chase Race."
So what do you thing, will we have more then 16 drivers? Will someone steal a road course?
Greg Biffle
The Biff has not had a great start to his 2014 contract year. It has been quite the ride so far and most of it hasn't been good. But, that does not mean he can not find a way to win in the next 13 races before the Chase starts. In fact, he has 5 wins at the next two tracks NASCAR heads to.
Not only does he have 5 wins at Pocono (1) and Michigan (4) but we go to these tracks twice before the Chase. The two road courses are not a strong point for Biffle, so we can make his Chase race 11 races instead of 13. He only has 3 races at Kentucky, but his average finish there also isn't the best.
For the record I am throwing Daytona out of these stats because it is too much of a toss up, I will discuss this at the end of the article. Biffle does have one win at Loudon, but overall it isn't one of his better tracks. Britsol, Atlanta, and Richmond are also nothing special for the Biff.
Overall, Biffle needs to get it done at Pocono or Michigan for his best chance at a win before the Chase. I wouldn't throw out Kentucky or Atlanta as they're tracks he could potentially have a fast car. I am unsure about Biffle's chances at a win this year though. The Roush team hasn't had a lot of speed this year and he has had a lot of rumors going around that he could be leaving (Roush Fenway Contract Talks). This may all be clouding his mind, or maybe he is on his downhill slide?
Clint Bowyer
Is something different with Bowyer this year? It just seems like he hasn't been as easy going as most seasons and he seems to be struggling at the same time. Bowyer is now the MWR head dog, but Brian Vickers has seemed to take that roll on better. Clint is actually on a long win less streak going back 54 races (We're Going Streaking 2014).
Totally opposite of Biffle, Bowyer can be all but counted out of the next two races (Pocono and MIS) as he only has two career top 5's total at the two. But he does have a good shot at Sonoma if someone else doesn't steal a win there.
If he doesn't take the opportunity at Sonoma, the nest circled on his list is Loudon where he has won before. If Bowyer doesn't get it done at a road course, Daytona, or Loudon he will be "itching" to get a win in the last race before the Chase. Unlike what happened last year, it is no mystery that Bowyer can win at Richmond. In his 17 starts there he has 2 wins and 9 top 10's. Instead of having an indecent about trying to bring out a late caution, we could see the opposite happen with Bowyer leading the race and needing a win to get in. Wouldn't that be fun?
Kasey Kahne
Here is the thing with Kahne, he has a win at a lot of the remaining tracks before the Chase. Pocono (2), Michigan (1), Sonoma (1), Loudon (1), Bristol (1), Atlanta (2), and Richmond (1). That means he has a win at 7 of the remaining 11 tracks in the next 13 races.
Just by looking at the stats you can tell Kahne has a shot of winning at any point, add that with the fact that he is in a Hendrick car and you have to think he will get a win eventually. But so far this season Kahne has been all but invisible.
Also, if you look farther into these stats he has up and down finishes at almost everyone of these places. So, he could get a win or he could finish 20th, its a fine line. If Kahne and the #5 team figure it out he could easily post a win at any of these tracks, but if they don't he could also end up win less.
In my preseason prediction (2014 Chase Predictions) I said "With a win in his last 3 seasons, and in a Hendrick car, Kahne should have no problem finding a win in 2014. He should make the Chase, but consistency will be what he needs when it starts," and I will stick by that. Also worth noting, I said he had a great shot at the Chase because of this statement. With how well the other three Hendrick drivers have done, I would say he has to turn it around eventually.
Ryan Newman, Brian Vickers, and Kyle Larson
The list gets thin early when you are trying to look at who will win in the next 13 races before the Chase starts. After Kenseth, Smoke, Biffle, Bowyer, and Kahne these are the guys we have left that I think have run well enough to find a win (possibly even Menard, but I have never thought of him as more than a guy who may win a couple in his career).
Newman has wins at a few of the remaining tracks including Pocono and MIS (I bring these up every time because NASCAR goes there 4 times in the nest 13 races so they play a huge role in the Chase from here on out). Newman's best shot has to be Loudon where he always seems to contend.
Vickers is having a come back season in 2014. Even though his comeback has been a great story he is still a long shot to win in the next 13 races. I have included him on this list just because he has the talent to do so.
Kyle Larson is also on this list because he has shown the talent to win in the Cup level. It may not happen this year, but he isn't just out on the track logging laps like many rookies do. Larson has shown time and time again this year that he is a quick learner and adjust's to these tracks quick. Those things alone could be the reason Larson wins, but in 13 races he will still be a long shot to win.
Closing Statements:
With ten winners already in the first half of the Chase Race (first 26 races before the final 10 Chase races start) I still do not see use heading into the playoff with more than 16 winners. Even if you take all 5 of the drivers I spotlighted (Kenseth, Smoke, Biffle, Bowyer, and Kahne) it still ends up being 15 and chance are one or more of them still won't win in the next 13.
One thing can change my opinion on how many drivers will win before the Chase and that is the big three (Daytona, Sonoma, and Watkin's Glenn). All of these tracks can be wild cards. The only way I see NASCAR having more then 16 winners at the start of the Chase is if 3 drivers not listed steal a win at there three tracks (example: McMurray wins Daytona, Ambrose wins Sonoma, and AJ Allmendinger wins Watkin's Glenn). If that happened, we would have 13 drivers with a win not even counting Kenseth (14), Smoke (15), or Kahne (16).
If drivers steal those tracks (which can easily happen at least at one of them) then we could have an exiting Richmond where drivers are either fighting for the 16th win or points to not be the 17th winner (but left out because of points).
Other then that scenario I do not see use having 16+ winners before the Chase starts. I do like Kenseth, Smoke, and Kahne (sticking to my guns) to get in for sure. I think Bowyer and Biffle both have an alright shot, but are no sure things. Whats great about Biffle and Bowyer is that they have totally different paths (different tracks) that they need to take to get a win. One will be looking more at the 1.5 (and larger) tracks and the other will be looking at a road course and some shorter tracks. No matter the outcome it will be an interesting story line to watch the second half of the "Chase Race."
So what do you thing, will we have more then 16 drivers? Will someone steal a road course?
Marcos Ambrose on a road course needs to be considered
ReplyDeleteValid point.
ReplyDeleteHe does have a chance. I just didn't go into depth about him. I did note in my scenario about the "Big Three" (Daytona, Sonoma, and Glenn) that he was one who could steal one.
I should have gone into it more with Ambrose. In my 2014 Chase Prediction article at the beginning of the year I did note he could steal a road course win.