Early Season Manufacture Results

2014 Look at How Chevy, Ford, and Toyota are Adjusting to Aero Package

By Richard Tix

NASCAR is only 9 races into it's 2014 season so most things can be taken with a grain of salt, but 9 races is enough to start looking into some trend's that are being played out.  This week NASCAR Behind the Wall will take a quick peak at how the three manufacturer's are adjusting to the new aero package.

First thing to note, not all car manufacturer's are not created equal (and this is not a shot at a certain make). What it means in NASCAR is that some makes of cars have way more drivers, which can skew some of the stats. So I tried to take a look at it from a few angles. 

The Statistics:

Manufacture Statistics					2014 NASCAR Drivers
Stats	Chevy	Ford	Toyota		Run all 9 Races
Wins	4	4	1		Chevy	Ford	Toyota
Top 5	21	16	8		19	9	7
Top 10	48	23	19
Poles	4*	2	3
*Kyle Larson Rain Out Pole

First thing to note, the chart on the right shows how many driver (who have run all 9 races) run each car make. 35 drivers have run all 9 races in the Cup series so far this season, 19 drove Chevy, 9 drove Ford, and 7 drove Toyota. Now you understand what I mean by the manufacturer's are not created equal. 

With that in mind it is still interesting to see how each car has done when it comes to wins, top 5's, and top 10's. Chevy and Ford both have 4 total wins with Toyota struggling with 1 (Kyle Busch). Each category really runs down the same, Chevy, Ford, then Toyota. Some of this can be expected when you have more cars running one manufacturer. Where the stats pop out is looking at them between Ford and Toyota. Ford takes win's by a land slide 4 to 1 and top 5's 18 to 8. 

2014 NASCAR Standings (Where Drivers are after 9 races)
Number of Drivers in Standings					Percentage of Drivers in Standings
Stats	Chevy	Ford	Toyota		Stats	Chevy	Ford	Toyota
Top 5	2	1	2		Top 5	10.5	11.1	28.5
Top 10	4	3	3		Top 10	21	33.3	42.8
Top 15	7	4	4		Top 15	36.8	44.4	57.1
Top 20	11	5	4		Top 20	57.8	55.5	57.1
Top 25	14	6	5		Top 25	73.6	66.6	71.4

Let's take this a bit further. These charts are all about where drivers of certain manufactures are in the standings. So, Chevy has two drivers in the top 5 (Gordon and Earnhardt) and so on and so forth. The chart on the right shows the percentage of Chevy's in each ranking. So, Chevy has 19 total drivers that have run all 9 races, and 2 of them are in the top 5, which equals 10.5%.

These charts are to really break down the difference in the amount of drivers that run each manufacture. Chevy should always have an advantage in overall stats because they have more drivers running there car, but percentages brings in a new wrinkle. By percentages Toyota's really don't look like they are running quite as bad. It is interesting to note Chevy has a very high amount of drivers in the top 25 of the standings, in fact they even beat Toyota.

The Eye Test:

Well, sometime's you have to look past the statistics and just go old school, by the eye test. By the eye test (all of this is by my opinion) the Ford's look fast week to week but lose a bit sometimes after qualifying. Chevy's seem to be the solid ones from the group. They haven't been too high, nor too low from week to week. Some weeks you have Chevy driver who dominant (Kevin Harvick) and other weeks they just run normal. 

That being said, it does seem like Toyota's are lagging behind early in the season. Matt Kenseth still doesn't have a win after his great run in 2013, his first with Toyota. Denny Hamlin hasn't really even had a chance at a win yet in 2014 and Clint Bowyer is almost non existent. Maybe this all comes down to the drivers, but I think Toyota is looking into this slow start and thinking what else can we try to get back ahead of everyone? 

It isn't like Toyota is slacking in 2014 though. Matt Kenseth is currently 2nd in points while Kyle Busch is 4th. I think in some sense we have just come to expect the JGR cars to find early season wins. I actually don't blame all of this on Toyota, but rather it has been a super fast start for Ford after they struggled in 2013. Ford has picked up there slack from last year which has taken away Toyota's chances at winning.

Going forward I do expect guys like Kyle Busch and possibly Matt Kenseth to have multiple wins in 2014. I also think Denny Hamlin should find a win in 2014. I think some of his struggles have been more on him getting back to normal then it is Toyota; which will be interesting going forward to see if he ever gets back to the old DH. One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to see if Toyota starts stealing back wins from Ford going forward in 2014.