Week 17 Preview

Kentucky Speedway

Well Nascar is going back to a track where drivers will only make left turns, a place where Nascar has only ran two times at, Kentucky. Well there is little data this week on this track as we have only had two winners, Brad Keselowski last year and Kyle Busch in Kentuckys inaugural race.

A few quick notes on Kentucky Speedway. In the two years since the Sprint Cup series started running here no driver has posted two top 5's and only 5 drivers have posted two top 10's (Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Jeff Gordon). Also only 5 guys have led double digit laps total in two races (Kyle, Keselowski, Johnson, Hamlin, and Kurt).  Well lets get into it and take everything with a grain of salt (Leaving out Best Chance Forecast this week with little data). Here is a look at 2012 and 2011 race results at Kentucky Speedway.

2012 winner Brad Keselowski

The Good:

• Brad Keselowski- BK not only one here last year but in the 2 year history he has the best average finish of 4.0. BK has also lead 147 of 535 laps which is second only to Kyle. This is a track that really helped him get going for the Chase last year. Also note, he has won here in Nationwide with a 3.6 average finish in 5 races.
• Kyle Busch- The only other winner at Kentucky also gets the second spot this week. Not just because he has won here but he has lead 243 of 535 laps here which is 45.5% of the career laps here.
• Kasey Kahne- Lots of other guys can be listed on here, but my last guy I will highlight it Kahne because he loves tracks like this. He has been fast this year and I think he has a chance at a win this Saturday. He did finish 13th in 2011 and 2nd last year so he also has a good track record here as well.

The Middle:

• Carl Edwards- Well with only two races here a lot of guy fit the mold of being in the middle, but I like Carl to stay on his good pace this season with another strong finish at Kentucky. He has only posted a 5th and 20th place finish (last year) so his two races were up and down.

The Bad:

• Clint Bowyer- Do I think he will finish poor this Saturday? No. But in the only two races here has he had a top 15? No. I think he will improve his bad runs here but the fact is in little data he has a 25.5 average finish. I think top 12 is right where he will find a home.
• Jamie McMurray- Same average finish as Bowyer but I think he could again finish outside the top 15. He has struggled to find consistency so it could be another rough day for Jamie.

Kyle Busch win's first Sprint Cup race at Kentucky in 2011

Its a short article with little stats so I will add in some thoughts:

• Who I like for the win the weekend?
• Kasey Kahne
• Dark Horse who I like for the win?
• Joey Logano- He has a good track record in Nationwide and is having a nice 2013.
• Other top contenders?
• Kyle Busch-If he can keep the car from spinning he should be up front
• Brad Keselowski- Won here in both series.
• Jimmie Johnson- Every week he can contend
• Who needs it most?
• Brad Keselowski- Needs his season to turn around, almost out of a Chase spot with no win.
• Denny Hamlin- Honorable mention. DH needs a win this week otherwise he may pack it in soon so he doesn't risk it.
• What big name guy do I think will struggle?
• Tony Stewart- I don't know why, I just have a gut feeling he will struggle this week after a frustrating Sonoma race.
• My top 5 in no order:
• BK, Kyle, Kahne, Kenseth, and Kurt Busch
• Rounding out the to 10:
• Jimmie Johnson, Hamlin, Logano, Gordon, and Edwards

Alright folks that's it for this weeks Kentucky Speedway preview! Check back for updates on other articles and new posts. If I find time either this week or next week I will be writing a "halfway" article that will look at the last 9 or 10 races before we reach the Chase. Have a great week guys.