Week 5 Preview

Auto Club Speedway

Auto Club 400, Fontana, CA

 Nascar is leaving Bristol and heading to Fontana, CA for week 5 of the Sprint Cup season. Leaving Bristol we take a few things with us, Brad Keselowski is back where he ended last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr is still rolling, Kasey Kahne looks like a real contender after finishing last season 5th, and Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano have something personal going on.





Logano confronts Hamlin after being spun out espn.go.com/racing/nascar/… #nascar
— David Newton(@DNewtonespn) March 17, 2013

So on we go to California before Nascar takes a breather for a week and gets back at it on one of the most entertaining tracks on the Nascar Schedule, Martinsville Speedway. Last time Nascar was at Fontana for the Auto Club 400 the race was cut short by rain leaving Tony Stewart the winner on the 2 mile oval. The year before that we saw an exciting finish where Kevin Harvick lead one lap all day, and it happened to be the last lap by 0.144 seconds.

Entering Fontana this year a few drivers who have been hot will also make another appearance on the Good list in this weeks Good, Middle, and Bad class for Auto Club Speedway. Here is a look at last years Auto Club 400 Results.

The Good: (Drivers with good results in the past few races at Fontana)

• Kyle Busch- The past two times Nascar has stopped in Fontana Kyle has lead a total of 231 of the 329 laps. That is 98 laps lead by the other 42 drivers. Yet Kyle didn't win either of those races. Last year the rain shortened his run and he ended up 2nd in a car that was ready to win. In the past four races at Auto Club Speedway Kyle has finished 2nd, 3rd, 14th, and 3rd. Best Chance Forecast: Kyle is hot finishing 2nd at Bristol and 4th at Las Vegas, it is possible he can pull off a 3rd straight top 5 this week.
• Tony Stewart- Stewart is in big need of a turn around, in fact all of Stewart-Hass needs it. Luckily two of the three team drivers show up on favorable lists this week (See Laying Low). Smoke got the last win in Fontana in that rain shortened race in 2012 but also has notched 13th, 9th, and 8th in the few years past. This could be the week he starts a comeback, if not he will have a huge hole to dig out of. Best Chance Forecast: Smoke needs a top 10 this week to turn things around for him and his team.
• Kevin Harvick- Harvick has had a bit of a slow start to his season. He sits 16th in points due to bad luck at Daytona and otherwise just being mediocre (One top 10 so far this year, but 3 top 15's). The past four at Fontana for Harvick came out to 4th, 1st, 2nd, and 38th. Those past 3 races leave Harvick hopeful for a good finish this weekend. Best Chance Forecast: With his last 3 results all in the top 5, its not a stretch to say he could get his first top 5 of the year. Expect at least a top 10.
• Others: Carl Edwards (5th, 6th, 13th, and 7th) and Jimmie Johnson (10th, 2nd, 1st, and 9th)

The Middle Class:

• Clint Bowyer- Bowyer has had decent success at Fontana in the past 4 races with 2 top 10's and 3 top 15's. Bowyer is quietly in 4th even though he had a long day in Las Vegas a couple weeks back. Best Chance Forecast: Its hard to see Bowyer turning in a top 5 this week, but notching another top 10 isn't too far out of the question.
• Matt Kenseth- Kenseth has had as hot of start as anyone, but it wont show in the points (currently 13th). Kenseth has just been in the wrong place at the wrong time at Daytona and Bristol, both races he had a great chance at the win. Kenseth's last trip to Fontana came with a 16th place finish, but the three before that resulted in a 4th, 7th, and 1st. That 16th place finish was also rain shortened and he was the last driver on the lead lap, so who knows he could have made up a few spots. Best Chance Forecast: Its very likely that Kenseth keeps it going and finds himself in the top 10 again at the end of the day.
• Greg Biffle- Greg Biffle has also been on the edge of good at Fontana. Just as deserving as Carl, Biffle's last four 6th, 11th, 10th, and 4th have all been good. However only one has resulted in a top 5. Best Chance Forecast: Biffle should easily find himself in the top 15, if he happens to find a fast car in qualifying and keeps track position a top 10 is possible.

The Bad: (Drivers that haven't run well in the past few races at Fontana)

• Joey Logano- I'm not sure this is the week we see Sliced Bread get back at Hamlin. Logano's last 4 here have resulted in a 24th, 25th, 5th, and 26th. Is that 5th place finish showing potential or just an outlier? Logano has had a decent start to the Nascar Season, and with some top drivers struggling (Stewart, Gordon, Harvick, even Newman) he finds himself in 12th. Maybe that good start will roll over, percentages say it wont.
• Brad Keselowski- This isnt the first time BK has been on the Bad List. Brad has shown though that after his first Championship and his hot start this year that he has become more well rounded at tracks he has struggled with. It still isn't enough yet to not look at his 18th, 26th, and 21st finishes in his last three. This could be the year he breaks back out at Fontana if he continues his dominance, but anything but 1st and we know BK will still be wanting more.
• Jeff Gordon- Last week I thought Gordon would get his first top 5 on the season, well he looked great until a cut tire ended his run and Matt Kenseth's while Gordon was leading. Gordon's last 3 of 4 races at Fontana haven't been much better than his 2013 start (26th, 18th, 20th, 2nd). Maybe Gordon will get back to that 2009 form at Fontana, if he doesn't he will keep digging his own hole.

Laying Low: (Drivers that could surprise)

• Kurt Busch- Small team, big results from Bristol. Fontana is another track that Kurt can possibly keep it going. Kurt's last 4 here resulted in 9th, 17th, 6th, and a 5th place finish. Kurt could keep running his hot finish at Bristol right into Fontana.
• Ryan Newman- Newman finally kept his car on the track and out of trouble at Bristol. It was a much needed top 10 and he is now currently the top Stewart-Haas driver in points. (That isn't saying much, he is 23rd). Newman has a chance to roll over his success at Bristol to Fontana. Newman's last two finishes here were 7th and 5th. Only downside, he did happen to struggle the two races before that, 36th and 28th. So the key to this race for Newman is also the key to his season comeback, hope the car stays together and keep the car on the track.
• AJ Allmendinger- Two starts, two top 15's. It is not an easy task to run part time and also finish well but AJ has done it so far in 2013. In AJ's last two at Fontana he has finished 15th and 14th. AJ is my long shot this week and is a low end high reward driver for this race.

Need more from Fontana? Check out these links:
Entry list for Auto Club 400 at Fontana, CA: Here
Nascar.com Auto Club Speedway track details: Here