Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Week 10 Preview

Talladega Superspeedway

Nascar is officially through a Quarter of the 2013 season! 9 races into the season and Nascar heads to Talladega for the first of two times (the next during the Chase). As Nascar left Richmond International Raceway Kevin Harvick finally got hot and into the top 5 for the first time this year with a late race Win.

Some bad luck and bad nights hit some drivers hard in Richmond which could end up being a huge misstep in a Chase spot run with Dega next on the list (known for getting into trouble). Last year's Talladega winners come into this week on different terms. In the Spring race Brad Keselowski got his second career win at Talladega (the other his first ever career win in 2009) and needs to bounce back after he lost a cylinder late in the race at Richmond. On the other hand, Matt Kenseth who was the winner at Dega during the Chase has been on a hot streak again.

Yet both drivers need a good finish this week because both have faced the wrath of Nascar and run into penalties that make every misstep even larger. Here is a look at the Spring race results at Talladega.


The Good:
  • Brad Keselowski- BK needs a good week that is mistake free to get past all the bad luck he has been through. Every since Nascar came down on Penske he has seemed to have some bad luck but for the most part fight through it. In his 8 starts he has a 12.2 average finish (best of current drivers), 2 wins, 3 top 5's, and 6 top 10's. Best Chance Forecast: BK has to run into some good luck some where right? Top 5 with a good shot at getting his first win of the season.
  • Clint Bowyer- In the last 10 races at Talladega Bowyer has not only the most top 10s (7) but the best average finish (10.5). Add in two wins in his last 5 and you have the ingredients for a good track. Best Chance Forecast: Another top 10 should be a no brainer, a chance at a win is possible.
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr- Even though his last 10 races have been just average at Talladega (4 top 10's and no wins) Jr has a long history of great driving here. If you add up the fact he knows the track well and he has a hot start to the 2013 season I think it is safe to say he should have a good weekend. Best Chance Forecast: I'm thinking he will find his way to the top 10, and may find a top 5.
The Middle:
  • Matt Kenseth: The guy I will go with this week out of the many drivers to choose from, Kenseth. In the last 10 he has led the second most laps, has a win and 2 top 5's (both last year) but his average finish over those 10 is 21st. 2 of the races he didn't finish because of a crash but something has to give. Best Chance Forecast: the fact that last year he had two top 5's including a win here, plus he has been hot this season, makes me think he can turn around his mediocrity at Talladega.
The Bad:
  • Marcus Ambrose- All the way down there at 25.1 average finish position in the last 10 races it Ambrose. In 8 races he has 1 top 5 and that is it (first career start at Dega). He had a rough week last week and Dega will do him no favors, he will have to earn it.
  • Jamie McMurray- One driver who has a career win at Dega (in the last 10) who hasn't done well most of the time here is McMurray. He has an average finish of 22.5 in the last 10 with only two top 5's (win and runner up). If you exclude those 2 good races, he has only finished inside the top 16 once in the 8 other races.
  • Tony Stewart-Smoke is another driver who has a win in his last 10 races at Dega but overall hasn't had much luck. Only 2 top 10's in that span and an average finish position of 21.4. It doesn't look good for him heading into Dega cold in 2013, but maybe this is the kind of spot where he will surprise?
Laying Low:
  • David Ragan- In the last 10 races at Talladega David Ragan had 5 top 10's, yes I said 5. His average finish of 14.1 is 6th best of current drivers in the last 10 (4th best if you take out 1 race drivers Mike Bliss (10) and Kenny Wallace (12). Last year his finishes were 7th in Spring and 4th in the Fall. Not too bad for a guy running on a small team.
  • Jeff Burton- Right behind Ragan in average finish in the last 10 is Burton (14.2). He has 6 top 10's and 3 top 5's in those 10 races. He also has posted 3 straight top 10's (3rd, 10th, and 10th).
  • Travis Kvapil- Big time sleeper alert. Last year with BK racing Kvapil finished 16th in the Spring and 8th in the Fall. In his 7 career starts at Dega he has 2 top 10's and a pole so anything is possible.
You can be good or bad, hot or cold and it could all change in one lap when Nascar heads to Talladega. When will the big one happen? Who will be a part of it? Dega brings hope to drivers who need to get on a roll because if they stay in one piece and away from the big crash they could have a chance.

Need more? Check out these links and articles:
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Sunday, April 28, 2013

Pit Road: Week 9

Richmond International Raceway

For the first time in 3 races Nascar has a first time winner on the 2013 season. After Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth all notched there second win in the 2013 season Kevin Harvick finally got on a roll and won his first. (Also the first time in 3 weeks the Pole winner didn't win the race). Just like this early season, Harvick wasn't dominant all night but he had a good car and hung around. At the end of the night Harvick only led 3 laps but got the last one which is what mattered most.

The win for Harvick was much needed on the season. Not that he was struggling, but he only had one top 10 previous to Richmond. (He has finishes of 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 13, and 42 on the year). So he has been hanging around but not dominate on the season but this could be what turns his season around.

Other story lines from Richmond: What else can happen to Brad Keselowski in one race? Struggles from Biffle all day long. Kurt and Stewart get heated. Stewart goes from a good day to a normal night in 2013 on the last lap, and Juan Pablo Montoya comes close but can not break his win less streak (now at 93). For full race results check out Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Lets get onto the good stuff: Rising, Coasting, and Falling drivers after Richmond plus the Power Rankings after that.

Rising:
  • Juan Pablo Montoya: May not be a long climb up the Nascar Standings, but he had his best race of the season at Richmond. A late caution while he was in the lead made a win even tougher.
  • Kevin Harvick: He has been consistent this season, but it has been in the 12th-14th place range. That is enough to keep you around but after a night like Saturday his chances at the Chase look much better.
  • Jeff Burton: This maybe the same situation that Montoya is in, but Burton had his best race of the year Saturday night.
  • Joey Logano: Seems like a lot of guys got a much needed finish at Richmond. After week after week of bad luck JoLo finished 3rd
Coasting:
  • Clint Bowyer: 4 top 10's in 9 races and 5 top 10's, this has been a nice little season for Bowyer. After last years Chase run, I think Bowyer is a driver to keep and eye on.
Falling:
  • Brad Keselowski: This really was out of BK's hands. Another long night looked like he was going to salvage it into a top 10 until he went down a cylinder and it finished his night.
  • Marcus Ambrose: Ambrose just can't get anything going. Another tough week for him saw the #9 head behind the wall very early.
  • Brian Vickers: After filling in for Denny Hamlin and showing his ability to finish well he has had back to back poor weeks. His run in the #11 maybe coming to and end as well as long as DH can come back for Dega.
Pit Road (Week 9 Power Rankings)
  1. Jimmie Johnson (LW-1)- He didn't have the best of nights (no laps led, finishing 12th) but who was going to take his spot this week?
  2. Matt Kenseth (LW-5)- The climb continues his run to the top. Good night for the #20 team that could have been a long week after losing 50 points that had nothing to do with him or JGR.
  3. Brad Keselowski (LW-2)- Finishing 33rd and you only have him falling 1 spot?? "It's just because you like him." No, really its because he was still in the top 10 after hitting the wall early until a cylinder went down on the Red Deuce. Needs a clean race at Dega.
  4. Carl Edwards (LW-7)- Guess who is second in points right now? That's right Carl is. On top of that he has a very quiet 6th place finish at Richmond.
  5. Clint Bowyer (LW-8)- He moves up with Carl after continuing to finish in the top 5 week after week. Clint is the driver to watch in this top 5 and the biggest sleeper for a Sprint Cup Championship.
  6. Kasey Kahne (LW-3)- Richmond was the first time he finished higher then 11th since the second race of the year. Him and Mark Martin got into each other and ruined both of there nights.
  7. Dale Earnhardt Jr (LW-9)- The bad luck avoided Jr for the most part on Saturday and he wound up finishing in tho top 10. Jr is still 3rd in points after a stretch of bad luck problems.
  8. Kyle Busch (LW-4)- Well it has been a rough two week fall for Kyle. Could not stay out of trouble at Richmond cost him his 5th straight win in the Spring race. He ended up 24th.
  9. Kevin Harvick (LW-NR)- His first win and his first appearance in my Power Rankings for 2013 (Started after week 2 at Phoenix). Harvick has been anything but bad, finishing just outside the top 10 most weeks, but this win was a break through he needed.
  10. Paul Menard (LW-10)- Menard is staying consistent in 2013. Who thought when the season started after 9 races (or 25% of the season, or 34% of the way til the Chase) that he would be tied for 9th in the Standings?
  11. Aric Almirola (LW-NR)- The standings are starting to get tough, and that means Greg Biffle gets the big fall of the week. (Biffle finished 19th and 36th back to back weeks) Mean while Almirola has a stretch of 7th, 8th, and 8th. Also he sits in a Chase spot for Richard Petty (11th).
  12. Greg Biffle (LW-6)- The Biff got really close to falling out of the Rankings, luckily for him this is the week I was planning on adding the 11th and 12th spots. He just had a rough night at Richmond.
**Now that we hit the Quarter season mark and the stretch run to the Chase I will be adding in the 11th and 12th place spots to the Rankings!**

Dropping Out: Greg Biffle (LW-6)
Just Missed: Jeff Gordon, Joey Logano, and Jamie McMurray.

The rankings really are over the place at this point in the season so bad luck maybe coming into play next Sunday at Talladega. Can guys like Kahne and Busch get it turned around? Will this win help Harvick get it going? Can't wait for Sunday! Check back this week for a a Quarter season review of the Nascar season focusing on drivers and story lines from the 2013 season!
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Friday, April 26, 2013

Tweets of the Week: Richmond

This week Tweets of the Week will focus on my stats for Richmond. Mixed in a few interesting Tweets from #NFB, Nascar drivers, and teams.

























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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Week 9 Preview

Richmond International Raceway


Nascar leaves Kansas behind in the wind (better yet leaves the wind in Kansas) until the Chase. Now we head to Richmond International Raceway for the second night race of the 2013 season. After the race at Richmond Nascar will officially be done with 25% of the season and we can take a look at early season standings. Until then lets focus on this Saturday!

Seven of the past eight winners have been driving Toyota when visiting Victory Lane, including Kyle Busch four times. The previous six races, all Chevy. Ford has not had a driver take there car to Victory Lane in 14 races, or since 2005 (Kurt Busch). Will car manufacturer have anything to do with Saturdays race or are these just fun facts? We will see, but Kyle Busch has won the Spring trip to Richmond four straight times. Here is a look at last years Spring race and last years Fall race.

So lets get on with the Good, Middle, and Bad drivers at Richmond International Raceway.

Kyle Busch RIR Win in Spring of 2012


The Good:
  • Kyle Busch- Kyle has 16 career starts at Richmond, he also has 13 career top 10's. Better yet, 13 of those top 10's were top 5 finishes! Boy oh boy has Kyle been good here. He has the most wins of current drivers (4) and best average finish (5.4). Best Chance Forecast: A hot start to 2013 and a hot track for Kyle, safe to predict a top 5.
  • Clint Bowyer- Two career wins at Richmond, including the last trip here, and 8 top 10's (14 career starts) has Bowyer looking good this weekend. Also think about this, he missed out on a top 10 four times while finishing 12th. Best Chance Forecast: Top 10 is defiantly in the future if he runs like he can at Richmond.
  • Tony Stewart- How this season has gone I don't think Smoke should be mentioned anywhere until he proves us wrong, but this is history. And Smoke has four straight top 10's including two top 5's last season. He also has won here in the past (3 times) but none since 2002. Best Chance Forecast: Danica and Ryan Newman finish ahead of him. Being serious, its too hard to predict Smoke this season. Look for a possible top 15.
The Middle:
  • Jimmie Johnson- Once again I will keep the middle ground drivers list short. JJ is good just about every where so it isn't a stretch to put him on this list. Hasn't won at Richmond since 2008 and has to 30+ finishes since then. Best Chance Forecast: Top 10 isn't out of the question for JJ.
The Bad:
  • Paul Menard- 12 starts, no top 10's and an average finish of 27.1 is not what Menard wants to see. He has been the surprise of the early 2013 season and will have to figure something out this time around to avoid a huge slip up.
  • Martin Truex Jr- Truex has 14 starts at Richmond with two top 10's and a top 5 but that seems like such a long time ago. Truex has had back to back good weeks, but his last five at Richmond look like this: 21st, 25th, 30th, 27th, and 22nd.
  • Joey Logano- 8 starts and JoLo has one top 10 (a top 5), everything else has been just plan bad at Richmond. He will have to do better then his 30th and 24th finishes last year to get out of the hole that has been created for him.
Laying Low:
  • Ryan Newman- The only Stewart Haas driver worth talking about right now, Newman has a career average finishing position of 11.6. He has 13 top 10's in 22 career starts at Richmond. Newman may go into the weekend quiet and finish is making up points on 12th position (24 behind right now).
  • Mark Martin- Mark has 30 career top 10s at Richmond, but he is not a young pup anymore. Yet he still has three straight top 10's and 7 in the last 10 races. Not too bad for an old guy. Look for him to make a good run Saturday, but most likely end up short of the win.

Lets get ready for an exciting weekend! Check back for new updates and for even more and a bunch of extra stats for the Richmond weekend follow me on Twitter.

Some extras so you get enough info through the week:
  • Yahoo article on Matt Kenseth and his Kansas issue: Here
  • Nascar.com Fantasy Preview for Richmond: Here
  • Get your Richmond car paint scheme's Here
  • Nascar.com Up to Date Standings (Since mine are not updated yet) Here
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