Race For a Win: Part One

Well another week and another Jimmie Johnson win. Past that last statement, this article will not talk about Jimmie Johnson again. This article instead will take a look at all the drivers looking to find a win still in 2013 and with that a possible birth into the Chase.

Dover brought Tony Stewart back into the talks of the Chase after a dismal start to the season, the win didn't just give him a shot at the WC, but he is already in 13th place in the standings which means he has a great shot regardless.

So with Smoke leading the way, which other drivers haven't notched there first win of the 2013 season but need to? I will take a look at those drivers and when or if they will find a win in 2013.

**First part of a two part series. The first I take a look at the guys who have a good shot at getting into the Chase without a win. The second will be guys who almost HAVE to get a win or two to get a WC spot.**

Brad Keselowski

Well lets start out with the win less drivers with the guy who finished 2012 as Nascar's newest Champ. BK has been through it all this season but has yet to find his way back to Victory Lane, but he still sits 9th in the points just hanging on. If there is a list of who needs a win the most he would be on it.

A Look Ahead: Well this next week Nascar heads to BK's home track, Michigan International Speedway, where his last three starts have been promising (2nd, 13th, 3rd). He may have a chance to get going at Michigan but he has had better luck ever season in the August race. The newer Kentucky track is where BK needs to take advantage of the other drivers. He and Kyle Busch are the only two drivers to have a win at Kentucky (BK's other finish is 7th).

Will he get one in 2013?

• I think it is hard to bet against the former Champ. Tracks like Kentucky, Bristol, or even the second stop at Dover should all be places he runs strong.

Dale Earnhardt Jr

Second guy on the list is Jr, we get to him early in this list because his last win was in the June Michigan race in 2012. Last year he broke his long win less streak at this track and in the past has run well at MIS. He has been hot this season (not as hot as last year to this point) and is almost a lock for the Chase.

A Look Ahead: Well he does run well at MIS so this week should be a good week to watch and see if JR Nation gets to rejoice again like one year ago, but he also has a chance with the second trip to Daytona coming up. He has two runner up finished in the last 3 trips to Daytona including this years 500.

Will he get one in 2013?

• I hate to say in Jr Nation but I just am not sure he will. Last year he had a great season, even better then this one, and he managed one win. He does have the benefit of running for Hendrick so I wont count him out. Look out at the afore mentioned and also maybe the second trip to Martinsville.

Greg Biffle

Let's move on to Biff, the guy who came second to JJ at Pocono. He has not been on many peoples radar in 2013, as has been the case with a lot of Ford drivers. Luckily for Biffle he is heading to a track this next week that he has won at. Actually Biffle, along with Jr, won at Michigan last year (and has 3 career wins).

A Look Ahead: As mentioned, Michigan is a track Biffle could have a shot at if he is truly figuring out this new Ford. Last year he also finished 4th in the June race at MIS. Biffle also has 2 career wins at Kansas which is in the near future. Biffle most likely will have some strong runs at 1.5 mil tracks so he could bust out then.

Will he get one in 2013?

• If you look at the past 6 season Biffle has gone every other year notching 2 wins or no wins. This would be one of those years falling on a zero win year. Will he follow that pattern? I am not sure he will get one, but mostly because Ford's have just been a step behind the Chevys and Toyotas.
• **Update 6/16/13: Well the week the articles come out one driver checks his name off the board. Biffle and Ford get out of there 2013 slump at a Michigan track where Fords (namely Jack Roush Fords) have found good success. Now the question is, well Biffle find another win to makes sure he gets into the Chase?**

Clint Bowyer

A guy running as consistent as Bowyer doesn't need to worry about wins, but try telling a driver he doesn't need to win to get into the Chase. Bowyer is upset every week he doesn't get a win so 2013 hasn't been his year. In 2012 he finished the year having a very strong Chase and it has followed this season.

A Look Ahead: Well Sonoma is coming up soon and last year he snuck out a win there. In his 7 career starts at Sonoma he has 5 top 10's, 4 top 5's and a that win in 2012. I would say he will be a front runner or needs to be. In 2012 he also notched a win at Richmond and has a history of running well there.

Will he get one in 2013?

• Considering only once in the last 6 season Bowyer hasn't notched a win, 2009 being the year he didn't, I think its safe to say he will get one in 2013. I think he has a chance to get real hot and find a few wins this year like he did last year (3).

Jeff Gordon

Gordon is on the boarder of needing wins to get in the Chase or being able to without one (or more).  He made the first list because I have about 5 or 6 more drivers who almost certainly need the wins to get into the Chase. For Gordon, long gone are the days where he could strike for double diget wins in a single season.  Last season he had 2, Pocono which Nascar was just at and the last race of the 2012 season, Homestead.

A Look Ahead: Gordon was runner up 4 other times in 2012 and most of those came down the stretch. Places like the second trip to Dover, Pocono, and Richmond are all tracks I can see Gordon getting a win at. Also to add to that list a place like Atlanta where Nascar visits once and Gordon has finishes of 2nd (2012) and 1st (2011) in the last two could mean a visit to Victory Lane.

Will he get one in 2013?

• 87 career wins, 301 top 5's, 418 top 10's, and a Hendrick Motorsports car....It's tough to bet against Gordon. In the last four races Gordon does have two 3rd place finishes and has looked poised to be a front runner again. I think he gets at least one this season and will slip into the Chase, but it wont be easy.

Pit Road Week 14

Pocono Raceway: Party in the Pocono's 400

Well the "tricky triangle" didn't seem too tricky for Jimmie Johnson and the #48 Hendrick Chevy. JJ finish up his day at Pocono leading 128 of 160 laps and sitting in Victory Lane with his third win of the season. Post race inspection seemed to be more difficult then the actual race for the 48 team but after much talk on Twitter about his car being too light, he still passed in the end.

The day really was JJ's to lose after he had been fast all weekend but it was also a promising day for the Stewart-Haas camp. Smoke got another top 5 after his win at Dover (4th) and for only the second time this season Ryan Newman posted a top 5 (5th).

Also to Jr Nations delight Dale finished up 3rd after having a good day riding up front. Jr just never seemed to have enough for JJ, but neither did the rest of the field. Here are the results of this weeks Party in the Pocono's 400.  Now lets get onto the Rising, Coasting, and Falling drivers after Pocono and Week 14's Power Rankings.


Rising, Coasting, and Falling Drivers after Pocono

Rising:

• Greg Biffle- Really this maybe a score for Roush, but at the same time Edwards fell apart. Ford cars just seem to be a step behind but on this Sunday Biffle looked good. On the final restart the Biff made a mad run from 4th to the back of JJ's bumper but after that he didn't have enough and Jimmie pulled away. This 2nd place got the Biff back in the top 10.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr- The latest driver in Nascar Behind the Walls Driver Spotlight series, Jr has been on his second hot stretch of the season. He is still a step behind where he was last year at this time but he has had a good car all season.
• Jeff Burton- He wont make the Chase, but has anyone noticed how Burton has done since his 3rd place ASR finish? Starting with this week, his past 3 finishes are 11th, 11th, and 12th. It has been a tough season for Burton so to see some good racing out of him is a nice surprise.

Coasting:

• Denny Hamlin- This weeks lucky driver to be in the middle (or unlucky) is DH. He finished 8th which wasn't bad but DH needs to be bringing winning race cars to the track each weekend. He will most likely need 2 wins (at least one) to get in even if he makes the top 20.

Falling:

• Kasey Kahne- Very early car troubles left Kasey out of it early at Pocono. He is still in the top 10 in points and should be fine in the long run but this is his second bad finish in a row. Kahne will need a good finish at the 2 mile long Michigan to get it going again.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr- Ricky hasn't been amazing this season, but can you believe this weeks 26th place finish is his worst other then his 40th at Texas?  He is right on the top 20 edge for now but needs to start finding some speed to get top 10 finishes.
• Martin Truex Jr- No one has fallen more then Truex in the past few weeks. Just 2 short weeks ago he was in position for a Chase run. After a 38th place finish at Dover and a 23rd this week he finds himself in 17th.

Newman led 19 laps but couldn't hold off JJ. He finished 5th

Pit Road (Week 14 Power Rankings)

1. Jimmie Johnson (LW-2)- JJ had a case to be #1 for the past few weeks but I just gave it to Kenseth because neither finished well enough to pull away. Well this week JJ was good beginning, middle, and end. JJ now had a more then dominant car back to back weeks.
2. Kevin Harvick (LW-3)- Harvick got his 4th top 10 finish in the past 5 races (11th place finish was the only non top 10 in that stretch). Other then JJ Harvick has been the hottest and most consistent driver as of late.
3. Matt Kenseth (LW-1)- Well I gave Kenseth a longer run then I had to at #1 but it has come to an end. Last week the Toyota engine bug got to the #20, this week a run in with Montoya made a day that was only ok to start with even worse. Both he and JPM stayed out of the wall (and other cars) but Kenseth never made up ground and finished 25th.
4. Kyle Busch (LW-6)- Kyle finished up 6th at Pocono on Sunday. My math says that is 4 top 10's in the last 5 (including ASR). When Kyle doesn't spin out Kyle and stays on the track he has been fast. He will still need a strong run in the Chase which isn't something he is known for.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr (LW-7)- Jr had a great day again on Sunday which seems to be marking his second good run of the 2013 season (the first being his hot start to the year). Maybe this year Jr wont run into a concussion that stops his hot run in the Chase. He was also this weeks Driver Spotlight which targeted how he has made runs this year.
6. Clint Bowyer (LW-4)- Well Bowyer has had a great season to date but he had a frustrating Sunday at Pocono. He didn't see much of the front down the stretch this week and ended up finishing the day 15th.
7. Tony Stewart (LW-NR)- Well unranked to 7th, I wanted to get Smoke in last weeks rankings but lately the middle to lower rankings are packed with guys making runs at the spots. Smoke now has 3 straight top 10's (win, 4th, and 7th) plus if you add the ASR and Darlington he had finishes of 14th and 15th. He may not even need a WC spot if he goes on his patented summer run (13th currently).
8. Carl Edwards (LW-5)- Well Carl has been the only Ford hanging tough week after week, but he fell off at Pocono and finished 18th. He is starting to fall off as other teams are figuring it out. Can he or any Ford team get it going? Biffle made some progress Sunday.
9. Kurt Busch (LW-9)- Starting at the ASR 5th, 3rd, 12th, and this week 7th Kurt has got it going. He looked fast at times but never really found clean air up front and by the end of the day just started to cling to where he was.
10. Joey Logano (LW-10)- Another top 10 from JoLo has his slowly climbing back into the standings (16th, up 2 from 18th). I still this JoLo will push for a win to make the WC spot interesting, but until then he is making some good top 10 runs week after week.
11. Kasey Kahne (LW-8)- Well this fall isn't all his fault, as he had car problems very early in the race, Kahne is in a mini slump and needs to find his way back out.
12. Greg Biffle (LW-NR)- Well I am a fan of Brad Keselowski, and he did have a good run going until he lost control of his car (but saved it) and fell back, but he didn't stay up towards the front so the Biff gets the spot. But BK didn't just lose the spot, the Biff definitely earned it as he had a fast car all day and made one heck of a run on the last restart.

Dropped Out- Brad Keselowski (LW-12) and Martin Truex Jr (LW-11)
Just Missed- Denny Hamlin, BK, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman

Take a look back at this weeks Week 14 Preview
Also look at some previous Driver Spotlights, some recently updated:

• Dale Earnhardt Jr
• Matt Kenseth
• Kyle Busch
• Tony Stewart
• Mark Martin
• Aric Almirola

If you haven't yet, take a look at this past weeks "Heating Up" Article on the story lines are we get closer and closer to the Chase.

Behind the Wall this week:

• "Race For a Win" a two part series looking at this seasons win less drivers. Who and When will your favorite driver get a win?
• Also next week Nascar heads to Michigan for its annual June race where Dale Earnhardt Jr broke his win less streak last year. He also doesn't have a win since then so maybe he can get it going at MIS again. Take a peak back for new articles and next weeks Michigan Preview!

Driver Spotlight: Dale Earnhardt Jr

Nascar Behind the Wall Driver spotlight: Dale Earnhardt Jr. This segment will be a short article about where each driver is right now during the 2013 season. At the end of the season I will review some of the more interesting stories from Driver Spotlight



Well Nascar is officially through 13 points races in the 2013 season and Dale Earnhardt Jr looks to be
in a pretty safe spot in the Sprint Cup Standings (6th). Since 2006 when he finished 5th in the points standings Jr has had only 2 wins and made the Chase 3 times. That is 3 Chase appearances in 6 seasons, or for you math majors 50% of the time. Those are not numbers many fans of Jr Nation like to see or hear about.

Lucky for Jr, and his loyal following, he is having his one of his better seasons since then (last year at this point was better, see below). He already has 8 top 10's in 2013 which ties his total from 2010 and is more then 2009 (5). He has 3 top 5's which is the same story as the top 10's (tied 2010 total and more then 2009). So it is pretty easy to say after having a pretty good season last year until a concussion held him back in the Chase, that Jr has regained some form.

The big spotlight for Jr this season is will it all come together or will it just be another "good" and not great season.

Let's break down this season so far because when broken down Jr hasn't been near as consistent as he would like.

The first 5 races:

• Well Jr was all the talk when the 2013 season got off to a hot start.  Not only was there some great racing and great story lines going on, but Nascar's most popular driver was on fire. In the first 5 races Jr finished in the top 10 every time and had 3 top 5's.  As a fan of Nascar anyone had to enjoy seeing that because lets face it, fan or not, when Jr is doing well everything is more interesting.

Next 5 races:

• The next 5 races couldn't have been any more opposite then how he started the season. He had one top 10 in those 10 races and was completely out of the spotlight. In those 5 races his average finish position was a dismal 19.2.

Last 4 races (ASR included):

• Even though the ASR didn't involve points I did include it in this spotlight because it brings it closer to splitting the season so far 5, 5 and 5. Jr hasn't quite got back to the form he was in to start 2013 but in his last 4 he has 3 top 10's. He has been very quiet during this stretch but he has been getting valuable points and staying in contention for the Chase.

Jr has 8 Top 10's and 3 Top 5's in 2013 through 13 races

Really 2013 has been the tale of two Dales. Something Jr will have to figure out when he gets to the Chase is how to stay consistent. If he enters the Chase on one of his "hot" stretches then Jr Nation may finally get to rejoice and Jr may finally get that coveted Championship.

A comparison to his 2012 season start:

Season	2013	2012
Races	13	13
Wins	0	0
Top 5's	3	5
Top 10's	8	10
Average Finish Position	13.5	7.85



So the big question is, can Jr get hot at the right time, during the Chase and make a bid at his first ever Sprint Cup Title? Also a side note to keep and eye on, can he get a Win in 2013? He is on a current streak of 32 races since his last win at Michigan International Speedway last season.

Hopefully for Jr Nation I come back to this article at the end of the season praising how good of a Chase Jr had while he went on to his first Championship, but it also just could be a dream. Only time will tell.

**Update 6/16/13: Heading into Michigan on 6/16 it looked like Jr was getting on a roll again and might get his first win of 2013. Jr had a fast car and even lead some laps at MIS. While he had a 5 second lead on JJ his blew an engine that ended his day and his bid at a 2013 win at MIS in the June race just one year since his last win.**

Week 14 Preview

Pocono Raceway: Party in the Poconos

Welcome Tony Stewart to Chase consideration. He spent 13 weeks in no mans land with everyone coming down on him and wondering what was going on. Then, suddenly, he won at Dover and everything changed, or it did for this one week at least.

This week Nascar heads to the tricky triangle for the first of two trips in 2013 season. I have to admit Pocono is not one of my favorite tracks but some drivers might disagree with me as will be revealed in the Good, Middle, and Bad section in the preview. If you want to check out Nascar's first trip results in 2012 to Pocono check it out here.

The Good:

• Jeff Gordon- In the last 10 trips to Pocono Gordon is one of two drivers to have more then one win here. He also has 7 top 10's (second only to JJ) and 3 top 5's. He is also the win's leader of current drivers with 6 career trips to victory lane. Gordon was the last driver to win here. Best Chance Forecast: I think he can compete for a win and he will need it, but not as much as DH.
• Denny Hamlin- The other driver to have multiple win's at Pocono in the last 10, DH. He also has 5 top 10's to add to that, all of which were top 5 finishes. Best Chance Forecast: Well he had some struggles last time at Pocono, but those wins and top 5's are hard to look past. He needs it the most, he could compete for a win.
• Tony Stewart- Smoke has the second best average finish in the last 10 races here (9.3). To go along with that he also has a win, 6 top 5's, and 7 top 10's. After getting a slump busting win at Dover Pocono is just what he wants to see. Best Chance Forecast: I think Smoke can add a top 10 to his list after last weeks win, but last time I said that he finished poorly (take it with a grain of salt).
• Also in the mix- Joey Logano (fast, 2 poles, 1 win in last 10), Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson

The Middle:

• Clint Bowyer- Clint has 6 top 10's and 1 top 5 in the last 10 races at Pocono but no wins. In fact, in 14 career starts on the triangle he has no wins with 7 top 10's and 1 top 5. Last year though he did finish in the top 10 both times so he could be getting it going at Pocono.

The Bad:

• Kyle Busch- Kyle does have 3 top 10's (which were 3 top 5's) in the last 10 races, but his average finish at Pocono in that span is 18.4. If he is not hot, he is way off at Pocono so it is a real toss up with him this week.
• Jamie McMurray- Where has McMurray been the past few weeks? Well this week may not get better, in his last 10 he only has 2 top 10's at Pocono.

Laying Low:

• Mark Martin- Well he has been very quiet as of late, and Pocono is just in time. Last season he finished runner up and 12th. He could maybe make a run towards the front.
• Marcus Ambrose- Last season he turned in finishes of 13th and 10th at Pocono. This season he is in desperate need of a good finish so anywhere near the top 10 would be a good start.
• Ryan Newman- His last four races at Pocono have been pretty good. Good enough to earn him a 8.0 average finish position. (6, 12, 5, and 9th).

Still need more Nascar heading up to Pocono?

• Paint Scheme's for this weekend
• Pocono Entry List
• TDR Engine talk on Nascar.com
• Pocono by the Numbers