Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Week 11 Preview

Darlington Raceway: Bojangles Southern 500

Week 10 on the Nascar season is about to arrive at Darlington Raceway just one week after Talladega put a dent in some drivers spot in the standings. Darlington has the potential to do the same thing this Saturday.  After a crazy finish that brought Nascar fans two small car teams, that happened to be from the same team, finishing one and two can Darlington exceed that excitment? This Saturday night trip is the only stop at Darlington Raceway on the 2013 season. Last year none other than Jimmie Johnson got the win. In 2011 Darlington brought Regan Smith a win so anything is possible.

Lets get into this weeks Good, Middle, and Bad category drivers at Darlington. For results of last years race at Darlington Raceways look here.


The Good:
  • Jeff Gordon- Not only does Gordon have the most career wins at Darlington of current drivers, but he also has notched one in his last 6 races (plus 4 top 5's). Best Chance Forecast: If he doesn't add another Darlington Stripe he could have a real shot at a top 5 and helping out his Chase chances.
  • Jimmie Johnson- The second Hendrick driver on the list, JJ was not only the last winner at Darlington (2012) but also 2 other wins, 6 top 5's, and 7 top 10's in his last 10. Best Chance Forecast: JJ has a good track record here and in the Sprint Cup, I will take a for sure top 10.
  • Ryan Newman- Best Driver to not have a win at Darlington in the last 10 races? Newman. Ryan has 7 top 10's in the last 10, 5 of those top 5's. Best Chance Forecast: If I was taking a long shot this week for the win, Newman would be it. But look for a chance at the top 10 and continuing to be the best Stewart-Haas driver this season.
The Middle:
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr- Jr is going to be my spotlighted middle man. He has struggled in his last 4 races here, only getting one top 15. But if you just look at the last 10 as a whole he has 5 top 10's and 2 top 5's. Something has to give and maybe this time around he finds the top 10 again.
The Bad:
  • Paul Menard- Having a good season, but a bump in the road last week at Dega and now a place where his career average finish position is 24.5 isn't what Menard wants to see. If their is a bright side, in his past three starts he has finished better in each (including 13th last year).
  • Clint Bowyer- Last year Clint did finish 11th and he also had a Pole in 2007, but his average finish is 22.6 in 7 career starts (only 1 top 10).
  • Juan Pablo Montoya- I guess in a way finishing in the 20's isn't "bad" but it sure isn't good either. In 6 career starts he did finish 5th once, but his other 5 go like this, 24, 23, 20, 23, and 23. So id you are looking for a guy to finish in the mid 20's you have found the guy.
Laying Low:
  • Aric Almirola- Well he is a long shot. Aric only has one career start here and he finished 19th. Darlington is a tough track for young drivers but if he stays clean he has been hot so he could get lucky.
  • Martin Truex Jr- He has back to back top 10's at Darlington. He had a good run for a few weeks where it looked like he would break his win less streak but came up short. I don't know that he can win but another top 10 isn't out of the question.
Could we get another crazy week like we have come accustom to this 2013 season? Will Kenseth keep his hot streak going this season by figuring out another track he hasn't been dominate at? Can another small car team come out of no where for a win? Tune in this Saturday to find out! Need more, check out these links:

           JGR and Kenseth penalties reduced.
           Penske penalties reduced.
           Paint Scheme's for Darlington
           Air Titan at Talladega

Check back later for Tweets of the Week! Also, with a Saturday race, Pit Road Week 10 on Sunday with Power Rankings.
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Sunday, May 5, 2013

Pit Road: Week 10

Aaron's 499 Talladega Superspeedway

Sunday the race started and then we waited, and waited, and waited some more. Finally after a long break and the Air Titan doing its job Nascar got the cars back on the track just in time to get the race in before darkness hit. As normal, drivers were trying to beat more then the darkness, but they were also trying to avoid the wrecks that end many drivers days.

Talladega was no different this year taking out Kahne, Kyle Busch, Harvick and more early on. Towards the end of the race promising runs by Kurt Busch, Newman, and Bowyer were all diminished. In the end it was Front Row Motor sports vs Edwards and Kenseth and "David" won. Not just the David vs the Goliath but David Ragan. It was a huge win for him and his team. But lets not go too long on about the race, I'm sure you sat long enough through the rain delay. Here is full results of the Aarons 499.


Rising, Coasting, and Falling drivers after Talladega.

Rising:
  • David Ragan- The list has to start with him. Talladega sure is a place where a small team can come up big but still no one saw that finish coming. Him and his team mate, Gilliland, made there way to the front on the last lap to finish 1 2. Great win for Front Row.
  • Aric Almirola- If you are keeping count, that is his 4th top 10 in a row. Don't look now but he is getting into position to get a Richard Petty Motorsports car into the Chase. I also think he is in line to finally get a win this year.
  • Carl Edwards- He is making a huge push this year with 5 top 5's in 10 races. Plus he has a 6th place finish that he almost notched another top 5. He had a rough year last year, is this the year he makes a run in the Chase again? Maybe get a Championship?
Coasting:
  • Matt Kenseth- Seriously when is he going to get comfortable at JGR? He hasn't missed a beat with his new team, in fact he has been running out of his mind. I'm sure he is disappointed with an 8th place finish after running so well all day and looked to be the guy to beat.
  • Jeff Gordon- He had a terrible day, yet he finished 11th and is on the cusp of a Chase spot. Gritting through Dega may be a race he looks back at as on that would have been much worse but didn't.
Falling:
  • Kyle Busch- He was part of the first crash at Dega. He is on a bad luck streak right now and it isn't pretty.
  • Kasey Kahne- Another guy bit early by the crash and bad luck bug. A guy who was one of the hotest drivers a few weeks ago has had back to back disappointing weeks.
  • Greg Biffle- 36th is not the finish he is looking for, yet he has two of them in a row. He is slipping as of late and needs a solid run to get it turned around
Pit Road (Week 10 Power Rankings)
  1. Jimmie Johnson (LW-1)- Well another top 5 in his 2013 belt. He was in the running down the stretch but was quiet compared to Ragan getting the win so people will forget he was up front.
  2. Matt Kenseth (LW-2)- No change here. May have fallen back to 8th at the end but he was the car to beat most of the race, and it has been that way in a majority of the races.
  3. Carl Edwards (LW-4)- After a huge jump last week up the rankings, Carl continues his steady rise with a 3rd place finish. He was first robbed a win when they got the cars back out after a rain delay, and then again when Ragan and Gilliland came out of no where to take the top 2 spots over.
  4. Brad Keselowski (LW-3)- He finished 15th and wasn't much of a factor Sunday, but no one under him can really make much of a point to be higher then him after Dega.
  5. Clint Bowyer (LW-5)- Going no where and staying 5th, Bowyer finished 18th after he got caught up in a late race wreck. He was having a very good day which he has been known for on plate tracks. Tough finish for him though.
  6. Dale Earnhardt Jr (LW-7)- Not a great day for Jr, but he got what he could out of his very average car finishing 17th. One of these weeks he will turn it back around and make another stretch run, but when?
  7. Aric Almirola (LW-11)- Aric now has 4 top 10's in arrow and every week putting himself in better position for a Chase spot. Petty sure would love to get a car into the Chase again.
  8. Kasey Kahne (LW-6)- What are you suppose to do with the rankings when power houses like Kahne, Busch, Harvick, and Biffle all go out early? Even Menard had a rough week. Kahne gets the draw because he was the highest last week and the wreck wasn't his fault.
  9. Kevin Harvick (LW-9)- Jumping Busch? Well he won last week, that's all I have got. Plus Kyle was the cause of the wreck that took many out early. (He did apologize for coming up too quick on Kahne).
  10. Kyle Busch (LW-8)- He is in a dry spell. He got up on Kahne too fast and gave him too much of a push and it ruined his day. Not what Kyle needed to get it turned around. He has a Chase spot on lock so he has time to get it figured out.
  11. Martin Truex Jr (LW-NR)- If you take out his 17th last week he has 3 top 20s in his last 4 (two of those top 5's).
  12. Paul Menard (LW-10)- Menard gets the nod over Gordon because this was his worst finish of the season, and its only 26th. In fact in the 10 races his other "bad" finishes were 21st, 20th, and 19th. He is still sitting with a Chase spot.
Dropped Out: Greg Biffle
Just Missed: Jeff Gordon


On to Darlington! If you didn't check it out, take a look at the Nascar Quarter Season Review from this past week that looks at the first 9 races.  Also make sure to come back and check out the race preview for Darlington later in the week. Also follow me on Twitter for up to date Nascar Driver stats!
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Nascar 2013 Quarter Season Review


Let's get to a review of the top half of the drivers standings.

On Vacation (Drivers In)
  • Jimmie Johnson- It is the Quarter mark to the Nascar 2013 season and JJ has already amounted a 43 point lead in the point standings. In that time he has 2 Wins, 4 top 5's and 6 top 10's while finishing every race. On top of that, guys like Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth have been hit with fines from Nascar and also ran into some bad luck that has left JJ by himself at the top. Nothing to see here, just JJ already marking his spot in the Chase. The rest of the way him and Chad will be just fine tuning.
  • Carl Edwards- He started the season off by getting a win week two and ever since then has been very consistent. He also has 4 top 5's and 5 top 10's in those 9 races. It is hard to see at this point Carl not staying in the top 20 and not getting a Chase spot.
  • Kasey Kahne- Kasey had a hot stretch where no one could touch him, well except for Matt Kenseth (finishing 2nd to him twice). Kahne also has an early season win that should help him keep a Chase spot at the end of 2013
  • Kyle Busch-Well the last two weeks have been ugly for Kyle, but he has his hot start of the season to fall back on. He has two early season wins that will at the very least get him the Wild Card spot (most likely). Kyle has been known to fall of once the Chase comes around, so that should start being the focus soon.
  • Matt Kenseth- Kenseth is in the same boat as Kyle with two wins almost assuring himself to at least a WC spot. Other then the Toyota Racing incident (50 points deducted) Kenseth hasn't had too many miss steps along the way.
Sitting Pretty (Looking good but can use some more in the next Quarter)
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr-I think he is a lock to get into the Chase but he still doesn't have a win and has had a few bad luck cases as of late. 3 top 5's and 6 top 10's have helped Jr stay in 3rd in the standings. Maybe Talladega he can get going again with a Win. Even without the wins he is 3rd so no real worries here.
  • Brad Keselowski- Well the current Champ has gone through just about everything a driver could in the past few weeks. Nascar penalties, fantum pit stop penalties, speeding penalties, spies, hitting the wall early, or finishing the race with half the car you started with, BK has done it. That being said he still has 7 top 10's in the first 9 races which is the most in Nascar. What BK needs is to get past the bad luck and get a win to really make sure he solidifies his spot. Can he do it at a track where his first Nascar win came and without his crew chief?
  • Clint Bowyer-He is really the third driver in this list that I think will end up in but a win would really help. Like I mentioned, Clint and the previous two drivers have done it all but just need to get that win to get it off there backs and make sure they are in for sure. Then they all can start getting ready for the Chase. Bowyer has only 5 top 10's but 4 of those are top 5's.


Work To Be Done (In the top 12 right now, but need to get moving)
  • Kevin Harvick- He is the safest driver in this section. Harvick just got his first win of the season at Richmond after finishing in the 12th-14th spot most weeks early on. The win will help him in the long run as will solid finishes, but if he gets hot watch out he could be sitting well by Chase time.
  • Greg Biffle- The Biff has had quite the ride so far this year. He started off with a top 10, then struggled a few races, then back on track, and now lately had two races with struggles.  This is part of the reason he hasn't finished above 3rs in the final season rankings since 2008. He will need to find consistency and at the right time to have a chance in 2013.
  • Paul Menard- Can he hold on to a Chase spot? That is the big question with Menard. Mostly because Menard is not normally in this position. He is almost half way to his career mark for top 10's in a season (at four now) but has yet to finish above 16th in the standings. If one thing is on his side, every season he has been getting better.
  • Aric Almirola- Who wants a Chase spot more, Aric or Richard Petty? Almirola started off the season on a good note not finishing worse then 16th in the first 4 races. In the middle he had two mis steps but in the last 3 races he has 3 straight top 10's. I would love to see the ole STP car back in a title chase but he needs to keep it up and find his first career win this season to releave some stress.
  • Jamie McMurray- If you didn't know the standings would you really think McMurray is in if the season ended after 9 races? Well even though he is in a spot now, his mind set doesn't change because he needs to get going. He has been very inconsistent but has racked up 3 top 10's/ McMurray just needs to find a win in the next quarter and stop riding the roller coaster ride in finishing position.
Sweating It (Guys outside the top 12 who have a decent shot, but better not wait too long)
  • Jeff Gordon- Well he had an up and down start to the season, and has had some issues that have held back his run the past few races but he managed a 13th and 11th back to back weeks. Gordon has a good chance with his track record to get into the Chase but it wont be easy. A few wins would really help his chances.
  • Martin Truex Jr- Well he made a two week run where he had a chance to break his win less streak but came up short. He sits just outside the top 12 but mostly because of those two races. Truex needs to find some top 10's in the next 9 races to have a shot to get in.
  • Ryan Newman- If you take out his bad luck races to start the season and the one other race (Martinsville) he hasn't finished higher then 15th (6 races).  4 top 10's and a top 5 in the early season has shown he still can run. He maybe the only chance for Stewart-Haas to get into the Chace this year. I think he has a good chance to sneak in if he avoids the 30+ finished that have him sitting so low.
  • Joey Logano- He would look a lot better with those 25 points back, say in a top 12 spot. Needless to say the Penske Nascar penalty hit this team hard but he has put together a good start to the season. He has been in some races down the stretch and in position to win so he has a shot to make the Chase if he gets really hot.


Starting to Worry
  • Denny Hamlin- DH is cleared to get back in the car at Dega. The thoughts are that he will start the race and sit towards the back until he can switch out so he can collect some points. He is 28th in points right now, or 71 points out of 20th. He still has an outside chance but no one really knows how he will come back. If he comes back to a slow start and he doesn't feel comfortable he may just shut it down for the season.
  • Kurt Busch- The little team that could. He has been impressive with his small team and has had some nice runs. I just don't know if it will be enough. He has an outside shot if he can stay consistent and in the top 20 and find a win or two.
  • Tony Stewart- A terrible season yet he is in 21st. Smoke could find a way to get hot and find some wins in 2013. If he does he could sneak in with a wild card spot and get hot at the right time. But the way he has looked this year it is hard to imagine that big of a turn around. I say he becomes more of the owner for the season and give everything he has to get Newman in and Danica as much advise as she wants.

Pack It Up (Guys who's Chase chances are slim to none)
  • Juan Pablo Montoya- Until last week at Richmond JPM hasn't been seen. He has had a dismal season and just doesn't have it this year. He always does have the long shot of getting a win or two because of road courses, but he still has not won on an oval.
  • Ricky stenhouse Jr- He has run pretty well for his first full season in Nascar, but I don't seeing it being enough. He will finish the season above fellow rookie and girlfriend Danica Patrick
  • Danick Patrick- Speaking of Danica, she doesn't have a chance at the Chase, but no one thought she did. She will just continue this season learning week by week and trying to get some top 10's. (And beating Smoke)
  • Jeff Burton- Burton just doesn't seem to have it again this season, so I doubt he will get back into the Chase and may have missed his window to ever have a good chance again. He will be focusing on just getting another win to snap his streak.
Who I like to get in at this point in the season: (Safest drivers towards the top)
  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr
  5. Carl Edwards
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Clint Bowyer
  8. Kasey Kahne
  9. Kevin Harvick
  10. Jeff Gordon
  11. Greg Biffle
  12. Ryan Newman
Making it close: Tony Stewart, Paul Menard, Kurt Busch, and Joey Logano. We will see how the next 9 races pan out and take a second look at how the Chase will shape up. Until then here are some extra links to take a look at.

Sprint Cup Standings
Latest Power Rankings: Pit Road Week 9
Rest of the Season Nascar Schedule
Talladega Preview

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Tweets of the Week: Talladega

Late addition of Tweets of the Week. A review on some last minute Talladega Statistics and a few Clint Bowyer late night Tweets!


















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