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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

2015 Week 29 Preview: Dover

AAA 400

Dover International Speedway


By Richard Tix

This weekend NASCAR heads to Dover International Speedway for the third Chase races of 2015. You know what that means? It means it is elimination time and after the race NASCAR will have just 12 drivers left for the next three races.

Heading into Dover some big name drivers are in trouble of advancing including 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick. This comes just one week after the team gambled on fuel when they knew they were definitely short. But, all of that can be reveresed with a great finish. However, the only way to lock himself into advancing is if he can pull off a trip to Victory Lane on Sunday.

So will Harvick, or any other driver on the brink of elimination be able to win and get past Jimmie Johnson at Dover?


The Good
  • Jimmie Johnson- Yup, JJ is still really good at Dover. Earlier this year he won his 7th race in the last 13 Dover races. He also only has two non top 10 in that same time. 
  • Jeff Gordon- After starting 22nd earlier this year, Gordon finishes with another Dover top 10 finish. That made 5 top 10's in his last 6 races including a win and four top 5's.
  • Matt Kenseth- Kenseth had car issues earlier this year at Dover, but before that he has three straight top 10's and 11 top 10's in 14 races. He is normally a front runner here and might push for a top 5 once again.
The Middle
  • Clint Bowyer- Once again, Bowyer is borderline in the "Good" category at this track. But again, he only finished top 10 and couldn't get a top 5 early in the season. He has 9 straight Dover top 10's, but only two top 5's in that time. Most of his finishes have been 8-10, which is good, but we would like to see more.

The Bad

  • Kasey Kahne- Before his top 5 earlier this year at Dover, Kahne had five straight races outside the top 10. He only has 6 top 10's in 23 Dover starts, so not much is expected of him this week.
  • David Ragan- Ragan did run well here earlier this year (finishing 13 after qualifying 15th), but the rest of his career has left more to be desired. He has zero top 10's in 18 attempts and only 3 top 15's. He needs to start notching top 15's to be a factor on Sunday.
  • Austin Dillon- In four starts Dillon has still yet to record a top 10 or top 15. In fact, he only has one top 20 in that same time period. Don't expect to see him up front much on Sunday.
About the Track: Dover
Track Stats
  • Richard Petty won the first 3 of 4 races at Dover, including the first two in 1969 and 1970
  • The race has been won from the Pole 13 times.
  • Kyle Petty won after starting 37th in 1995, the furthest back a Dover race has been won
  • Toyota hasn't won a Dover Cup race since 2010 (Kyle Busch), or 10 races. Dodge has won twice since then
  • The most cautions was 16 in 1993, Rusty Wallace eventually won the race
  • Current drivers with more then 1 Dover win (Jimmie Johnson-10, Jeff Gordon-5, Ryan Newman-3, Tony Stewart-3, Kyle Busch-2, Matt Kenseth-2, and Greg Biffle 2)
  • Current drivers with one Dover win (Brad Keselowski, Bobby Labonte (part time), Martin Truex Jr, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Kurt Busch)
  • Most career wins at Dover: Jimmie Johnson (10), Richard Petty (7), and Bobby Allison (7).
  • Most career top 5s at Dover: Mark Martin (24) followed by Dale Earnhardt (19)
  • Most career top 10's at Dover: Mark Martin (33), Richard Petty (26), and Ricky Rudd (26)
  • Most career pole awards at Dover: David Pearson (6), Rusty Wallace (5), and Mark Martin (5)
  • Most career starts at Dover is Ricky Rudd with 56.
Track Info
  • Surface: 1995-Present: Concrete
    • Was Asphalt from 1969-1994
  • Length: 1 mile
  • Banking
    • Turns: 24 degrees
    • Straight: 9 degrees

Dover International Speedway
Race
Date
Cars
Winner(s)
St
Make / Model
1969-29
7/6/1969
32
Richard Petty
3
'69 Ford
1970-41
9/20/1970
36
Richard Petty
2
'70 Plymouth
1971-22
6/6/1971
40
Bobby Allison
2
'69 Mercury
1971-43
10/17/1971
40
Richard Petty
4
'71 Plymouth
1972-13
6/4/1972
40
Bobby Allison
2
'72 Chevrolet
1972-26
9/17/1972
40
David Pearson
2
'71 Mercury
1973-13
6/3/1973
40
David Pearson
1
'71 Mercury
1973-24
9/16/1973
40
David Pearson
1
'71 Mercury
1974-12
5/19/1974
35
Cale Yarborough
3
'74 Chevrolet
1974-25
9/15/1974
40
Richard Petty
2
'74 Dodge
1975-12
5/18/1975
35
David Pearson
1
'73 Mercury
1975-22
9/14/1975
37
Richard Petty
3
'74 Dodge
1976-12
5/16/1976
39
Benny Parsons
7
Chevrolet
1976-24
9/19/1976
36
Cale Yarborough
1
Chevrolet
1977-12
5/15/1977
36
Cale Yarborough
6
Chevrolet
1977-24
9/18/1977
40
Benny Parsons
7
Chevrolet
1978-11
5/21/1978
40
David Pearson
3
Mercury
1978-24
9/17/1978
37
Bobby Allison
2
Ford
1979-12
5/20/1979
31
Neil Bonnett
5
Mercury
1979-25
9/16/1979
36
Richard Petty
4
Chevrolet
1980-12
5/18/1980
34
Bobby Allison
8
Ford
1980-25
9/14/1980
40
Darrell Waltrip
2
Chevrolet
1981-12
5/17/1981
32
Jody Ridley
11
Ford
1981-25
9/20/1981
34
Neil Bonnett
3
Ford
1982-11
5/16/1982
32
Bobby Allison
3
Chevrolet
1982-24
9/19/1982
35
Darrell Waltrip
3
Buick
1983-10
5/15/1983
36
Bobby Allison
10
Buick
1983-24
9/18/1983
36
Bobby Allison
7
Buick
1984-11
5/20/1984
36
Richard Petty
5
Pontiac
1984-24
9/16/1984
40
Harry Gant
3
Chevrolet
1985-10
5/19/1985
32
Bill Elliott
4
Ford
1985-22
9/15/1985
39
Harry Gant
4
Chevrolet
1986-10
5/18/1986
37
Geoffrey Bodine
3
Chevrolet
1986-23
9/14/1986
40
Ricky Rudd
11
Ford
1987-11
5/31/1987
39
Davey Allison
2
Ford
1987-23
9/20/1987
40
Ricky Rudd
13
Ford
1988-11
6/5/1988
40
Bill Elliott
17
Ford
1988-23
9/18/1988
40
Bill Elliott
3
Ford
1989-11
6/4/1989
35
Dale Earnhardt
2
Chevrolet
1989-23
9/17/1989
40
Dale Earnhardt
15
Chevrolet
1990-11
6/3/1990
36
Derrike Cope
15
Chevrolet
1990-23
9/16/1990
40
Bill Elliott
1
Ford
1991-11
6/2/1991
35
Ken Schrader
19
Chevrolet
1991-23
9/15/1991
40
Harry Gant
10
Oldsmobile
1992-11
5/31/1992
40
Harry Gant
15
Oldsmobile
1992-23
9/20/1992
36
Ricky Rudd
6
Chevrolet
1993-12
6/6/1993
38
Dale Earnhardt
8
Chevrolet
1993-24
9/19/1993
37
Rusty Wallace
1
Pontiac
1994-12
6/5/1994
42
Rusty Wallace
6
Ford
1994-25
9/18/1994
40
Rusty Wallace
10
Ford
1995-12
6/4/1995
42
Kyle Petty
37
Pontiac
1995-25
9/17/1995
40
Jeff Gordon
2
Chevrolet
1996-12
6/2/1996
42
Jeff Gordon
1
Chevrolet
1996-25
9/15/1996
41
Jeff Gordon
3
Chevrolet
1997-12
6/1/1997
43
Ricky Rudd
13
Ford
1997-26
9/21/1997
42
Mark Martin
1
Ford
1998-12
5/31/1998
43
Dale Jarrett
4
Ford
1998-26
9/20/1998
43
Mark Martin
1
Ford
1999-13
6/6/1999
43
Bobby Labonte
1
Pontiac
1999-27
9/26/1999
43
Mark Martin
8
Ford
2000-13
6/4/2000
43
Tony Stewart
16
Pontiac
2000-27
9/24/2000
43
Tony Stewart
27
Pontiac
2001-13
6/3/2001
43
Jeff Gordon
2
Chevrolet
2001-27
9/23/2001
43
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
3
Chevrolet
2002-13
6/2/2002
43
Jimmie Johnson
10
Chevrolet
2002-28
9/22/2002
43
Jimmie Johnson
19
Chevrolet
2003-13
6/1/2003
43
Ryan Newman
1
Dodge
2003-28
9/21/2003
43
Ryan Newman
5
Dodge
2004-13
6/6/2004
43
Mark Martin
7
Ford
2004-28
9/26/2004
43
Ryan Newman
2
Dodge
2005-13
6/5/2005
43
Greg Biffle
2
Ford
2005-28
9/25/2005
43
Jimmie Johnson
5
Chevrolet
2006-13
6/4/2006
43
Matt Kenseth
19
Ford
2006-28
9/24/2006
43
Jeff Burton
19
Chevrolet
2007-13
6/4/2007
43
Martin Truex, Jr.
26
Chevrolet
2007-28
9/23/2007
43
Carl Edwards
15
Ford
2008-13
6/1/2008
43
Kyle Busch
3
Toyota
2008-28
9/21/2008
43
Greg Biffle
5
Ford
2009-13
5/31/2009
43
Jimmie Johnson
8
Chevrolet
2009-28
9/27/2009
43
Jimmie Johnson
1
Chevrolet
2010-12
5/16/2010
43
Kyle Busch
4
Toyota
2010-28
9/26/2010
43
Jimmie Johnson
1
Chevrolet
2011-11
5/15/2011
43
Matt Kenseth
24
Ford
2011-29
10/2/2011
43
Kurt Busch
2
Dodge
2012-13
6/3/2012
43
Jimmie Johnson
2
Chevrolet
2012-29
9/30/2012
43
Brad Keselowski
10
Dodge
2013-13
6/2/2013
43
Tony Stewart
22
Chevrolet
2013-29
9/29/2013
43
Jimmie Johnson
8
Chevrolet
2014-13
6/1/2014
43
Jimmie Johnson
4
Chevrolet
2014-29
9/28/2014
43
Jeff Gordon
6
Chevrolet
2015-13
5/31/2015
43
Jimmie Johnson
14
Chevrolet