2017 NASCAR Playoff Predictions

Which Drivers Will Make the Playoff in 2017?

By Richard Tix

It's that time of the year again. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Daytona 500 is coming, but whats more important the Daytona 500 or my season predictions? Alright, don't answer that. In all seriousness with the 500 almost here the excitement it starting to ramp up.

With my excitement increasing and the days left until the Daytona 500 decreasing it starts getting me into the mood to throw out some season predictions. First up are my Playoff Predictions (below), followed by some random predictions (even further down below), and then coming up will be my release of the "Predicting a NASCAR Champion" to finish off the preseason.

So strap in, it's that time of year again where I throw out random stuff and try forgetting about the crow I will have to eat at the end of the season when it's wrong. 

Who Will Make the 2017 Playoff?

16 drivers now have a chance to get in, and predicting who will make it will be as tough as ever. I'm listing 16 drivers I think will get in and how confident I am with them which includes: (IN, GREAT, GOOD, OK)

1. Jimmie Johnson (IN) - I mean can you see JJ not being in the top 16? Didn't think so.
2. Kyle Busch (IN) - Rowdy has hit his prime just as this new Playoff Era has hit NASCAR. Expect him to be another top contender.
3. Joey Logano (IN) - Speaking of hitting their prime, we're just entering JoLo's prime. Will it end with a Championship?
4. Denny Hamlin (IN) - A fantastic 2016 season ended up short, DH will be determined to finally get his first Cup Championship.
5. Kevin Harvick (IN) - Harvick's rein will eventually slow down, but I don't expect it to happen just yet. Even if he gets a slow start with Ford, he will have plenty to get into the playoff safely.
6. Brad Keselowski (IN) - Team Penske has been too good lately to think both guys won't easily get into the Playoff.
7. Martin Truex Jr (GREAT) - I'm not as locked in with Truex's Championship hopes, but he should easily make the Playoffs again in 2017.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr (GREAT) - Back and ready to go. If his health stays true he will be in the Playoffs once again.
9. Matt Kenseth (GREAT) - He is past his prime, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have something left in the tank for these young guns.
10. Kurt Busch (GOOD) - Kurt Busch just keeps proving me wrong because I keep doubting him, but last year his final stretch run left a bunch to be desired.
11. Chase Elliott (GOOD) - Sophomore slump? I still think even if he has a slump he can get into the Playoff's with a win or points like 2016.
12. Kyle Larson (GOOD) - Larson took a step in 2016 by winning a race, will he take the next one by becoming a contender? I think he locks in back to back Playoff appearances with even more consistency. 
13. Austin Dillon (OK) - Making the Chase last year was a big jump for AD. Going back to back will be even bigger. After the top 12, the playoffs start to open up and I think AD has a nice shot to get in again.
14. Kasey Kahne (OK) - Can Kahne do it? I think he has a good shot at the playoffs and possibly victory lane in 2017.
15. Clint Boywer (OK) - Bowyer is as happy as anyone that 2017 is about to get started. He will be even happier if he can manage his way into the Playoffs.
16. Jamie McMurray (OK) - Really struggling with the last four drivers, but I think JMac's consistency can help him points into the playoffs again. Plus, he loves his superspeedways and will have three chances before the final ten races to win at one.

The top 16 seems to be a "safe bet" list. Behind the Wall will take a better look at some underdogs who could make a splash in this years 16 car Chase field.

• Erik Jones - I want to include Erik in the Playoffs -- and he still has a great shot at them -- but in the end I think the incosistency of being a rookie might hold him back. But, expect some fun moments with him being a front runner in 2017.
• AJ Allmendinger - Can he win at a road course? He has been getting more consistent with JTG at other tracks, but not quite enough to make the playoff on points alone.
• Ryan Newman - AD passed him as RCR's best driver in 2016 (points wise), will he bounce back and can RCR put two drivers into the Chase?
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Yes, a RFR driver. They made baby steps in 2016, if they make more in 2017 he could be a surprise this year. Playoffs are a long shot, but 4-6 spots in the playoffs seem pretty up for grabs.
• Ryan Blaney - Blaney is going to be around for awhile at the Cup level if he continues to run clean and safe, but will he make the step in 2017 to be a playoff driver? It's not out of the question.

2017 Random Predictions

Who Win's the 2017 Rookie of the Year Award?

• I'm all in on Erik Jones. Daniel Suarez has shown he can be a consistent driver and should fair well in year one in the No. 19, but I'm taking the No. 77 for ROY honors. Erik has shown flashes and can charge to the front at anytime. It won't be as easy at the Cup level, but I think it will be enough to pull off the ROY title vs Ty Dillon and Suarez.

Biggest Surprise in 2017?

• I have a few things on my mind, but I am not sure which is the biggest so let's list them all and give myself a worse probability of getting them all right. First, I think RCR will continue in the positive direction after 2016. They will put a driver in the playoff and contend, if not win, a race or two. Number two: I think Kyle Larson will win multiple races in 2017. Last: this one will be hard to quantify but I also think RFR takes another baby step forward with Stenhouse Jr. improving on his 2016 statistics.

Biggest Disappointment in 2017?

• Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Dale Earnhardt Jr all will have sub standard years in 2017. I think all three make the playoff, but statistically speaking I believe the young guns will start stealing some spotlight and top 5/top 10 finishes from the veterans which includes these three.

Will a Playoff Spot be Stolen at a Road Course?

• Stolen, meaning a guy like Allmendinger, a rookie, or another driver not known for having many wins at the Cup level. Will that happen in 2017 like it did in 2015? No. Here's why. Each year drivers have been realizing more and more the importance of winning and winning at a road course. That means teams have focused more on these types of races. Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex come to mind when thinking about regulars who can shut down an Allmendinger type from stealing a Playoff spot.

Kasey Kahne will make it back to the Playoffs?

• It's that time of year again. It's the time of year where i put blind faith back into Kahne for the upcoming season. If you follow along enough, you know that this happens almost every preseason and I always get burned. Kasey is too good to go a third straight year without a win and if he does he is too good not to point into 16th place.

Who is the next young gun to visit Victory Lane for the first time?

• The list includes Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Ty Dillon, Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse, and Trevor Bayne. That group has lower level championships and wins written all over it. But, who gets a win at the next level first? Chase Elliott is the easy answer and who I am going with, but you can't rule out AD (superspeedways), Erik Jones (JGR help), Daniel Suarez (JGR car), or even Ricky Stenhouse Jr (Bristol). It's tough to see the old greats we know and love move on, but the young guys are bringing a new wave to NASCAR which will be exciting to watch.

Have we seen the last of Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart?

• The Biff still wants to drive, but it was apparent he wanted a competitive ride if he was going to run in 2017, otherwise he would have stayed at RFR (if he could have). I do not think we will see either driver ever again in a large capacity at the Cup level. However, I could see either one stepping back into a competitive ride if a team needs a spot starter like HMS did in 2016 for Junior. I see Biffle stepping back into a part time ride before Smoke but I am not sure an opportunity will arise anytime soon.

2017 NASCAR Sprint Cup Headlines

By Richard Tix

A new season means new changes. Which are the biggest changes worth following this NASCAR season? Let's break down some of the biggest headlines as we get this 2017 season started!




2017 Points System

• It seems like every year one of the biggest headlines of the season has something to deal with changes in the points system. Well, 2017 is no different and folks will once again have to learn a new way of looking at things. The plus side? It's a new way for teams to have to attack each race and the season long schedule which should mix up the standings a bit. My biggest question, will the changes help give drivers who had great regular season's gain an advantage in the playoffs? My initial thought's are the new system will help, but time will tell.

Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Carl Edwards all missing in action

• Wait, a season without Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, AND Carl Edwards? Let's not even mention the closer we get to the 500 the more real it becomes that we will also be without Greg Biffle. How are we going to cope without some of the biggest stars of NASCAR in the last 15-20 years? Well, new drivers will enter into the limelight but it will be weird seeing new drivers in the seats of the No. 24, 14, and 19 for 2017.

Daniel Suarez vs Erik Jones in Rookie of the Year

• With Carl Edwards stepping away, JGR brought in Daniel Suarez and his tied partnership with Arris to run in the No. 19. That means two JGR drivers will go head to head for rookie of the year in 2017. Yes, Erik is running on a one year deal with Furniture Row, but don't forget he is still a JGR driver and the No. 77 and 78 are practically 5th and 6th JGR cars. The lower levels keep pumping in more and more talent to the Cup level every year and the latest additions should be fun to watch develop.

Can Jimmie Johnson be Mr. Eight Time?

• Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty hardcore fan's turn away and move onto the next topic on the list. JJ tied both Dale and Petty last season with seven Championships, that is know, but can he now make history and stand alone at eight? If he does, it will be big not only because it's number eight, but because he accomplished it under so many different formats.

SHR's move to Ford

• It was a shock to many when news broke that a team partially owned by Tony Stewart would be leaving Chevy. Heck, I am still a bit shocked and the season is about to start. But, you know what they say, money talks and so does being the focus of a manufacturer. It's now Team Penske and SHR under the Ford camp (yes, I haven't forgotten RFR, etc). The question, how smooth will the move to Ford go early in the season?

Clint Bowyer in the No. 14 for SHR

• Bowyer will move into the No. 14 seat that was left by Tony Stewart at the conclusion of 2016. We knew all this information last season, but what we don't know is if Bowyer will again make any kind of impact on a weekly basis? He brings his big personality along with a big win less streak to SHR to try and turn his career back around in 2017.

New Toyota Camry

• Toyota introduced its 2018 Camry earlier this offseason and at the same time revieled the TRD Camry that will be used in 2017. JGR and Toyota have been on top of there game the past few years so it will be interesting to watch if the new Camry has any affect on their performance. Best bet is we won't notice a thing, but it's always important to watch when any kind of change happens with the best team the previous season.

The return of Dale Earnhardt Jr

• Junior is back and that only means good things for the sport. The hope here is that his health is good to go all season. I've mentioned before that concussions are nothing to mess with and the hope is they do not spring back up in 2017. His return makes sure Jr Nation is fully fixed on the sport again and it's never a bad thing to have one of the faces of your sport actually on the track.

2016 NASCAR Pit Road: Preseason

Weekly Review and Power Rankings

Preseason

By Richard Tix

It's that time of year again. The weather is starting to turn the corner -- heck in Minnesota it is going to be in the 50's this week and might hit the 60's this weekend -- and the cars are about to roll off pit lane.

Haulers are being packed with tools and equipment and the cars are being loaded. Next stop, DAYTONA!

To start Daytona off right, I let the world of twitter decide which article would drop today. Apparently everyone want's to see how the Power Rankings will start before we even see a Cup car hit turn one at DIS. Fine by me! Since it is the preseason I will even dig deeper into this weeks Power Rankings. Most weeks only 12 drivers will make the cut, but to start the season off right I have listed 29 drivers in order. Sure, next week it will turn into 12, but for this week 29 drivers get to share the spotlight. 

Look out for the Behind the Wall Playoff predictions, Championship predictions, and the Daytona 500 Preview to be coming soon.

Pit Road Power Rankings: Preseason

1. Jimmie Johnson - Seven Cup Championships, 80 wins, 218 top fives, 330 top tens, and counting. Sometimes people do not realize it until it's too late, but we're witnessing greatness between JJ and Chad.
2. Kyle Busch - Rowdy couldn't go back to back in 2017, but he did make the final four again and gave himself a shot at a second title. He is just now hitting his prime, which is scary since he has a championship, 38 wins, 147 top fives, and 219 top tens already. 
3. Joey Logano - Ok, ok, so the first three all made the final four last year, what gives? Well, they were some of the better drivers of 2016 with no questions surrounding them in 2017. JoLo finished the year with six straight top tens that included two wins.
4. Martin Truex Jr - This team got to a point last season where they were finally able to "test" during races like the "big" teams of JGR, HMS, and Penske. At least that's what it felt like and the results seem to correspond. FRR was less consistent then in 2015, but won three more races in 2016. It will be interesting to see how a second FRR car mixes in with the No. 78's weekly speed.
5. Kevin Harvick - Fifth... No, I don't expect this to be long, but SHR does have to prove a few things with Ford until I fully trust "Happy." Then again, fifth to start the season also isn't a bad spot either.
6. Chase Elliott - Sophomore Slump? Maybe, but until it happens I am putting my faith in Chase to take another step in 2017. Sure, I had that same faith in Kyle Larson but that should just help me gain odds on my side. He's proved he can run consistently at times, but the real question is, when will he get his first win?
7. Brad Keselowski - BK was in a small handful of drivers who could have been considered the best driver of the 2016 regular season, however, that means nothing without the production in the Chase. The No. 2 team had a terrible finish to 2016 so a strong start in 2017 will be key.
8. Kyle Larson - One of the hardest drivers at the Cup level, can he take the next step after his first win of his career and first playoff appearance last season? 
9. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had one of his best season's of his career last year and things at JGR are starting to become the Denny and Kyle show with Carl leaving and Kenseth aging. This might be the year where Hamlin makes a title push.
10. Matt Kenseth - Speaking of Kenseth, he still has something left in the tank for all these young guys, but will it be enough? I expect him to continue his consistency but he may fall short once again of the final four.
11. Kurt Busch - Year three at SHR was a lot like year two for Kurt and that's a pretty good thing as both were pretty good season's. He now has a win in all three years with SHR and will look to continue that in 2017.
12. Austin Dillon - AD finally took a step in the right direction at the Cup level after two years of no positive movement. So, after taking a nice step with four top fives and 13 top ten's, will he stall out again, or continue to be the best RCR driver like in 2016?
13. Dale Earnhardt Jr - First one left out on the normal rankings. I expect Junior to be inside the top 12 most of the season, but after missing a bunch of the end of 2016 it's only fair to other drivers that he slides a bit to start out.
14. Ryan Newman - Newman's consistency took a step back last season which left him a long way looking in at the playoff picture. He still is a threat to steal a win, but it hasn't happened in a long time so was it his last?
15. Clint Bowyer - The move to SHR could move him up the rankings fast or it could solidify his career down here. One thing's for sure, can't be worse than last year.
16. Kasey Kahne - Here we are again, talk of Kahne never ends with HMS faithful. Is this the year Kahne wins again? He shows flashes, but can lightning strike once again?
17. Ryan Blaney - How will year two go? Blaney's on track production was shadowed by Chase Elliott, but he started to become a social media star with Bubba Wallace as the season progressed.
18. Erik Jones - The talented JGR product moves up into the brand new No. 77 at FRR. He will head a nice rookie class along with Daniel Suarez and Ty Dillon.
19. Jamie McMurray - Can JMac win at a superspeedway in 2017?
20. Daniel Suarez - How will Suarez fill the shoes that were so abruptly left in the entry way by Carl Edwards?
21. Paul Menard - 2016 was not a good season for Menard. Heck, it was his worst since 2009 so it's only right that he turns it around at least a little in 2017.
22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - If, IF, RFR can gain any type of speed in 2017 then I do believe Stenhouse could make some big strides. 2016 was his best year as a Cup driver but it still only ended with four top fives and six top ten's. Room for improvement is there if RFR can start to right the ship.
23. AJ Allmendinger - Road courses. Once again a road course win is the key for AJ, but he did have his most consistent season with JTG last year which will no doubt help his 2017 season.
24. Ty Dillon - Ty steps into the No. 13 and will try and take them to a level higher then where Mears had them capped at. However, will he be capable of doing that?
25. Landon Cassill - Landon is now the focus of FRM in 2017 after having his best season consitency-wise in 2016. Breaking the top 25 in the standings will be a nice move for he and the team.
26. Trevor Bayne - Just like Ricky, Bayne took a small baby step in the right direction last season. Will it continue this year? 
27. Danica Patrick - No top fives last season, but she still tied a career high for standing's finish (24th). How will she and SHR cope with all the sponsor drama heading into the season, though?
28. Aric Almirola - One RPM team left standing. 2016 was a big step back from 2015 and 2014 for the No. 43. Now a one car team, it will be interesting to see how they respond in 2017.
29. Chris Buescher - A win in 2016 put him in the Chase, how will 2017 shake out if it doesn't happen again? 

2017 Contract Year: NASCAR Drivers

Which NASCAR Drivers Will be Looking for a New Contract for 2018?

By Richard Tix

Its early in the 2017 season process, heck it just the offseason, but why not take a look ahead at what drivers will be looking to get new contract deals done before the 2018 season. Let's take a look at the drivers that could end up Free Agents in the NASCAR world for the 2017 season. NASCAR isn't always as easy to look at contracts as in other sports, because sometimes sponsors dry up or extend there contracts which then will have teams thinking about making extensions with drivers (hand in hand). NASCAR contracts are not as easily attainable as in other sports, so most the time contract talk is all speculation in this sport.

So, take this list with a grain of salt because extensions could have already happened behind close doors (cough cough Denny Hamlin every single year). Also, this list really only contains guys from HMS, JGR, SHR, CGR, RCR, RFR, RPM, Penske, and Furniture Row. No, not because I dislike little teams -- I actually like pulling for them -- but because many times those teams run on single year deals anyways and have a ton of turnover.

#1 Jamie McMurray

JMac is a guy who tends to find my free agent list often and most of that is because how difficult it is to find information on NASCAR contracts. It looks like 2017 if his last year under his current deal with CGR. It doesn't seem like CGR is in a rush to push anyone up the ranks just yet so it makes sense to bring back a steady driver like JMac if they can continue to bring in sponsorship.

#2 Brad Keselowski

BK, Paul Wolfe and Miller Lite were all extended through the 2017 season. So far, I haven't heard word on the future of any of the three. It seems safe to say that Penske wants all three back and I don't see any of them going anywhere, but it will be interesting to see if Miller Lite cuts back its number of races again if they do extend. I expect Brad and Paul back with Penske in 2018.

#11 Denny Hamlin

Every year Denny Hamlin looks like a free agent and every year he has a deal. No one really knows much about his last extension or a new one that is supposedly in the works. So, until I hear different I will expect Hamlin back at JGR in the No. 11 for 2018. Update 2/23/17: Per the usual, Denny Hamlin has signed an extension. This one is said to be a long term deal with he, JGR, and FedEx.

#20 Matt Kenseth

This might be the most interesting FA of 2017. Will Kenseth retire? Sounds like he wants to keep racing. So, will JGR bring him back? They already have Erik Jones in the waiting plus a ton of development drivers. Will Carl Edwards want back? That's a long shot, but it sure would complicate things. Kenseth will be a story line to follow.

#27 Paul Menard

Paul is always working year to year with his deals. However, he brings in needed sponsors to RCR so it's hard to see them letting him go. If they did, that would be a whole third car needing sponsors on a team that's always looking for them. Unless he hangs it up (doubtful), then I expect him back at RCR in 2018.

#42 Kyle Larson

Larson picked up his first win in his third full time season in 2016 for CGR. Normally contracts run three years, meaning his deal would have been up last year. However, I haven't heard any word on an extension. One thing is for sure, he is driving for CGR in 2017 and it seems to me CGR should want it's top talent back. The one thing to keep an eye on is sponsorship. Target is already starting to back down it's number of races in 2017 and could step down even more in 2018.

#43 Aric Almirola

RPM backed down in 2017 by announcing they would drop their second car -- the No. 44. Between poor performance and lack of sponsorship, RPM has been struggling for years now. RPM's latest win was with Aric Almirola and a rain shortened Firecracker 500 at Daytona. Before last season Almirola seemed to be having a pretty good run considering the circumstances, but last year the floor fell out. 2018 might be a time for RPM to move on from Almirola unless they don't want to gamble losing more sponsorship without him (he seems to have some decent relationships). I'm not sure who they would move on to, so 2018 and RPM is a head scratcher.

#48 Jimmie Johnson

To everyone's knowledge, JJ and Lowes are signed through 2017 but a deal hasn't been finalized for the furture of this HMS team. Same goes for Chad Knaus and his deal -- through 2017. I would expect everyone to return and an extension to be in place because this team has been too good to break up.

#77 Erik Jones

Erik technically still will be under JGR in 2018, but in 2017 he is running a one year deal with Furniture Row in the No. 77. The question for 2018 will be, is Erik back with Furniture Row while waiting for a JGR car to open up, or will he finally get a seat at JGR? He is a big part of JGR future so it doesn't seem likely that he gets away from them of Furniture Row.

#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr

If Junior wants to race in 2018, he will race and be in the No. 88 HMS Chevy. The bigger question will be will Nationwide extend and if so for how many races? If not, will another sponsor step up? With it being Junior and HMS, most likely they will find something.