Behind the Wall: February 2018

Monday, February 26, 2018

2018 NASCAR Pit Road Week 2: Atlanta

Weekly Review and Power Rankings

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Image result for kevin harvick atlanta win

By Richard Tix

What We learned. What We Saw. What We Heard.

What We Learned: Tire Wear is a Great Equalizer

Mechanical grip really stood out on Sunday with teams managing tires more than worrying about pure aero. It seemed like it showed with Ford and Toyota both up front. Last year Toyota had a huge advantage in the aero department (or at least that's what it looked like), but AMS and it's worn out track put more of an emphasis on mechanical grip over aero dependency. It will be interesting to watch next week if Ford and Toyota are still close together as LVMS is more of an aero dependent track

What We Saw: Loose Cars and Tire Managment

The fuel window was larger then the tire window once again at AMS on Sunday. Because of that we got to see how different drivers managed their tire wear throughout the race. It also provided some fun on track racing as fans got to see drivers fighting the cars to hook and stay on that yellow line. Towards the end of the race some drivers finally moved up the track to see if it would help gain any time (Larson is one example). One thing is for sure, tire management played a big role in having so many comers and goers throughout the field.

What We Saw: More NASCAR Gun Malfunctions

This will be a storyline to watch going forward. On Sunday we once again saw a few more gun failures (around three I believe) from airguns mandated by NASCAR. Obviously this is a work in progress and some bumps along the road will happen, but teams will begin to chirp up the more it happens, especially if it happens late in a race causing a team to miss out on the opportunity of a win.

What We Heard: Strategy

Seriously, the word strategy was thrown around the booth non stop. Dale Jr even chimed in with a tweet about if your drinking word was "strategy" along with a gif of someone who couldn't stand straight, and he wasn't even watching the race or in the same country! Most of the day it seemed like weather would play a factor and then it ended with a race that had different strategies at play down the stretch (11 and 22), but Harvick had the best one called, "just be faster than everyone else."

Pit Road Power Rankings: Week 2 (Week 1)

Kevin Harvick (LW-9)- Harvick was head of the class all weekend. He dominated the Xfinity rcae and then did the same on Sunday. He and Childers say they wouldn't be scare of NASCAR tech this year and won't hold anything back. It sure looked that way on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (LW-2)- Hamlin and JoLo are the only two with two top tens so far in 2018 and they were also the only two to try a different pitting strategy on Sunday to offset Harvick's dominance. It didn't work, but they still came out with a nice finish.
Joey Logano (LW-4)- Two races and two top tens. The 22 followed suit with the 11's strategy late on Sunday, but Harvick was just too fast for it to matter. It still resulted in a quality 6th place finish.
Martin Truex Jr (LW-1)- It's been a slow start to 2018, but so was 2017 and we know how that played out. Oh, and Martin still got a top ten on Sunday despite the "slow start to 2018."
Brad Keselowski (LW-8)- BK won The Clash, then wrecked out the rest of Daytona weekend. He bounced back in a big way at Atlanta by basically being the only one with a sliver of a chance to beat Harvick, and even that wasn't near close enough. Still, they got a top five and a playoff point to boot (Stage Two win).
Chase Elliott (LW-5)- The roller coaster continues for Chase. The Atlanta finish did stop at a high point and maybe it will continue to climb next week. He was the lone bright spot for HMS on Sunday and finished top ten to prove it, but more progress still needs to be made.
Kyle Busch (LW-10)- For most of the race Kyle was just kind of there. Scary enough, Kyle just riding around still led to a top ten for him and his team. I'd expect his name to be mentioned a lot this upcoming week at Vegas.
Ryan Blaney (LW-3)- Blaney is still second in points behind Logano, but didn't manage a top ten or any playoff points on Sunday. What is more concerning is that I confused him and Paul Menard on numerous occasions.
Kyle Larson (LW-7)- Larson grabbed his first top ten of 2018 and he and Chase Elliott were the only Chevy's in the top ten. So far 2018 has played out exactly like 2017 when it comes to the Chevy's.
Clint Bowyer (LW-NR)- Bowyer sure got a ton of air time on Sunday and it was well deserved. More than once he was flying through the field into the top ten.
Austin Dillon (LW-6)- AD fell back down to earth on Sunday after his Daytona 500 win, but he still managed a 14th place finish. After an early win, everything is about quality finishes and learning for the stretch run.
Kurt Busch (LW-NR)- Kurt has now lead laps in both races (16 at Daytona and 52 at AMS) and finished 8th on Sunday.

Dropped Out: Bubba Wallace (LW-11) and Paul Menard (LW-12)

Just Missed: Aric Almirola

The next Team Power Rankings will likely be next week. I want to get at least a race or two in before I refocus on them. I mean, it's not like Daytona gives us a good grasp on where teams are anyways and Atlanta was our first taste of where teams fall but not enough info was gathered. However, AMS also isn't a full indicator of the rest of the season as tire wear is king over aero grip that we will see play out at many other tracks. But, if you want to see the preseason rankings, scroll down here: 2018 NASCAR Pit Road Preseason

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

2018 NASCAR Week 2: Atlanta

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway

By Richard Tix

What to Watch For?

This is Where the Season Starts

The Daytona 500 is great. I mean, come on, its "the great American race" after all. The season technically kicks off with the Daytona 500, but we don't learn a ton at superspeedways, especially the first one of the season. This Sunday, story lines will start to form that we will see play out into mid season. Things such as which drivers look fast and which teams/manufacturers have the early season edge.

Who has the Manufacturer Advantage?

Speaking of the season getting started, AMS will give us our first real look at which teams and manufacturers have an early season jump on speed at 1.5 mile tracks. Last year Ford started out fast, but Toyota wasn't far behind and by mid season we saw Toyota take off. This year all the talk has been around ALL of the manufacturers. The talk about Toyota is how fast they were in 2017 and if anyone will catch them in 2018? The talk with Chevy is the all new Camaro and if it will push them to the top? The talk with Ford is that they could be trailing behind because the Ford Fusion hasn't got a redesign as recent as Toyota and Chevy. So, what will come true? Our first sign will be at AMS, but the story lines change throughout the season so what is true now may not be true by the ASR.

Driver (current and past) Reactions to the Track Surface

After the success of the AMS race last year, the track decided to put off the track resurfacing they were planning to be in place for this season. Drivers from current to past chimed in saying how great it was to have a surface that wore tires out and have cars fall off (basically, most of the drivers loved it). It was such a positive response that the resurface never happened. The question is, could it get put off another year? I will be interested to hear what drivers and fans alike have to say all weekend long. One thing in certain, the track does eventually need the resurface before it starts falling apart mid race, but balancing that with how many races they can get out of it before doing it is worth the watch.

Tire Watch 2018

We have a 100% chance tires will be a story line this weekend at AMS. Why? Well read the above section if you haven't yet and then come back to this one. Back yet? Ok here we go. This track surface is going to eat these Goodyears up and tire strategy will play a large role in Sundays drama. How drivers and teams manage tire ware on Sunday could have a huge effect on where they finish and who takes a trip to victory lane.

**This section is just a quick look at some of Cup drivers latest finishes. This is not a tool for fantasy purposes and NBTW only is looking at end results. No deep statistic's are involved, but rather it is just a quick way to get ready for the race and get caught up on who has finished well at each track**

The Good

Jimmie Johnson - New Camaro, five career AMS wins, two wins in his last three starts here, yeah I have JJ as a favorite this weekend.
Kurt Busch - Will Ford hold him back? Last year in his first year with Ford at SHR he finished 7th but didn't have winning speed. He has nine top tens (two wins) in his last 13 starts at AMS.
Kevin Harvick - Another Ford driver which will make the early season manufacturer story lines even more interesting, Harvick has nine top tens in his last eleven AMS races including two runner ups and two pole awards.

The Middle

Kasey Kahne - Kasey has three AMS wins, including his clutch win in 2014 that got him into the then Chase (AMS was towards the end of the regular season then. However, he is with a new team and also has five finishes of 23rd or worse in his last eight starts.

The Bad

Clint Bowyer - 17 career starts with just five top tens with his last one being in 2010. On the bright side he did finish 11th here last season.
Austin Dillon - AD's best finish is 11th at AMS. His other four finishes are 19th or worse here.
Paul Menard - New team, new number, and new manufacturer, maybe it means new results at AMS? If not, his past track record isn't great. Three top tens in his 16 career starts which his last being in 2012.

Weekend Links:

Monday, February 19, 2018

2018 NASCAR Pit Road Week 1: Daytona

Weekly Review and Power Rankings

Daytona 500

By Richard Tix

What We learned. What We Saw. What We Heard.

Bubba Wallace is an emotional dude

I mean, most of us paying attention already knew this. When he won at Eldora he absolutely showed us fans what we all clamor for: "more emotion out of drivers!!!" Well, the man finished second and broke down with his family around him during post race. It was fantastic. Bubba literally always wear's his feelings on his sleeve which is exactly what I love seeing in this sport. It's great for him, it's great for RPM, and it's great for NASCAR. Yet, this kid has had trouble finding sponsorship for too long....

The young guns are going to go all out for the win

AD wasn't lifting, not on the last lap of the Daytona 500. You know, when I type that all I can think of is "who would?" Yet, I saw so many people complaining about AD's move. IMO, Aric's block had as much impact on that incident ad AD's not lifting... Aric seemed to understand and it was a risk he was willing to take because it was the freaking Daytona 500! AD had a run before Aric came up and he just didn't lift. It isn't like he spun him when he had a nose in front of him. No, he bumped that crap out of him, got him loose, then tried moving a bit down which hooked Aric. It's no where near the worst dump I have seen and most drivers seemed to understand the move and didn't blame AD one bit.

The 3 team got Daytona 500 tattoo's

The question of, "where" is the best part. Rumor has it (not a rumor, AD confirmed), the tattoo is right on the posterior of everyone who partook. Yup, it's the freaking Daytona 500 and these kids are crazy. Oh, and how great was it to see the No. 3 in victory lane at DIS and the No. 43 in second!?!?

The Ford's were fast

Ok, we saw the Ford's fast all weekend but that doesn't really mean we learned anything because Daytona is way different then the 1.5 mile tracks we will be heading to. However, it should still be mentioned because BK, JoLo, Blaney, McDowell, Menard, Harvick, etc all had their moments (especially the Team Penske crew). It may not translate going forward, but lock it into your memory for the second trip to Daytona and the two trips to Talladega. If Ford does struggle with the 1.5 mile program, those superspeedways will be key tracks.

Pit Road Power Rankings: Preseason

Martin Truex Jr (LW-1)- Superspeedways are always a mess. Starting the season off at a superspeedway is a bigger mess when it comes to power rankings. So, without overacting to too much, Truex stays on top. The 78 was involved in a late wreck, but still came out 10th in points.
Denny Hamlin (LW-4)- Hamlin was my favorite going in and spent most of his day up front (after his early penalty on pit road), including leading 22 laps. He was in position late in the race, but luck didn't fall his way when the 3 turned the 10.
Ryan Blaney (LW-10)- Blaney led 118 laps on Sunday which was the most of anyone. He also won a stage and finished 7th. Not a bad day in his first official start with Team Penske.
Joey Logano (LW-9)- Basically if you looked up at any time mid race you would have noticed the 22 in second trailing the 21. JoLo was one of the strongest Ford's all day/weekend and it showed with a 4th place finish.
Chase Elliott (LW-6)- What a crazy up and down speedweek's for Chase. He and BK were towards the front when Chase went spinning, but he was a contender most of the race.
Austin Dillon (LW-NR)- What a start for AD and RCR. He is practically locked into the Playoffs and in dramatic fashion by winning the Daytona 500, in the No. 3, with a last lap fiasco. Hats off to Austin.
Kyle Larson (LW-3)- Larson got caught up early and salvaged his day for 19th.
Brad Keselowski (LW-7)- BK had plenty of fast Ford Fusions all speedweek, but luck didn't fall his way.
Kevin Harvick (LW-5)- Ditto for Harvick on what I said about BK. Kind of a quiet week for Harvick, but ATL should provide a bounce back to the spotlight.
Kyle Busch (LW-2)- What. A. Day. Early tire trouble and then a early spin left the No. 18 with a day to forget. Expect him to show up fast next week.
Bubba Wallace (LW-NR)- How cool was that? The No. 3 winning the race and the No. 43 coming in second. I really hope RPM has a bounce back season in 2018.
Paul Menard (LW-NR)- Menard quietly had a really good speedweeks and Menard and team had that No. 21 up front a bunch in each event. Nice way to start off his first start with Wood Brothers (currently third in points).

Dropped Out: Jimmie Johnson (LW-8), Erik Jones (LW-11), and Jamie McMurray (LW-12)

Just Missed: Michael McDowell, Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman, and Chris Buescher

The Next Team Power Rankings will likely be next week. I want to get at least a race or two in before I refocus on them. I mean, it's not like Daytona gives us a good grasp on where teams are anyway. However, if you want to see the preseason rankings, scroll down here: 2018 NASCAR Pit Road Preseason

Friday, February 9, 2018

2018 NASCAR Week 1: Daytona

Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway

By Richard Tix

What to Watch For?

New Faces in New Places (or Numbers)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth are out and new fresh faces are in. It's just another step in the changing NASCAR scene the last few years (Stewart, Gordon, Biffle, etc all out of full time rides). So, who will step into the spotlight and take over as NASCAR's next star? A Daytona 500 win for Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, or Ryan Blaney would take them to the next level. Speaking of, Elliott changed to the number nine, Blaney moved to an official Team Penske car (No. 12), and a bunch of other changes were had. The 500 will give us as fans a chance to fully catch up on the moves and start adjusting to the new places drivers landed.

The New Chevy Camaro

Sure, Daytona won't be much of an early season test for the new Camaro as that test will come when we head to Atlanta in week two. However, that doesn't mean we can't keep an eye on them and how nice they look on the banks of Daytona! Can a Team Chevy driver bring home a win in the first race for the brand new Camaro? Keep and eye on Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, and the underdogs Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray.

Joey Logano - JoLo has thre straight top tens in the Daytona 500 including a win (2015). He has been a strong starter so expect a bounce back early in 2018.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin won the 2016 Daytona 500 and has five top tens in the last eight races at DIS.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick has had three straight rough finishes at DIS, but the three before that were finishes of 4th, 4th, and 2nd. He hasn't won at DIS since 2010, and his only Daytona 500 win was in 2007, but he should be a favorite heading into 2018.

The Middle

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has an average finish of 15.6 (which is the third best of current full time 2018 drivers), yet only has two top tens in his last four and has never won at DIS. But, he plays it safe and could find himself with a shot at it late.

The Bad

Martin Truex Jr - Truex really hasn't fared will here at DIS in his career. In his last 15 starts at DIS he only has two top tens and five top 15's.
Jamie McMurray - JMac does have two DIS wins but he also doesn't have a top ten since 2013 (eight races).
Kyle Larson - Lot of bad luck included in Larson's stats, but only two top tens in his eight career DIS starts. Five times Larson finished 29th or worse in those eight races.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

2018 NASCAR Playoff Predictions

Which Drivers Will Make the Playoff in 2018?

Image result for martin truex jr champion

By Richard Tix

LET'S GO! The Clash is this weekend and the Daytona 500 is just around the corner. So, what does that mean for Behind the Wall? It means it is time to get out some playoff predictions and who I think will make it into the 2018 playoffs. Will I get these all correct? Most likely not... I have yet to get it 100% correct and last season was my worst year thanks to guys like Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Ryan Newman, and Ryan Blaney notching wins that many of us didn't see coming (even as a Blaney fan).

Below my playoff predictions I also posted a few random predictions for the season as well.

Who Will Make the 2018 Playoff?

16 drivers now have a chance to get in, and predicting who will make it will be as tough as ever. I'm listing 16 drivers I think will get in and how confident I am with them which includes: (LOCKED, GREAT, GOOD, OK)

Kyle Busch (LOCKED) - No question Rowdy is already in the playoffs. With veterans stepping away he and a few others are becoming the face of NASCAR.
Martin Truex Jr (LOCKED) - The 2017 Champion should continue his roll in 2018 and have no worries about making the playoffs.
Kyle Larson (LOCKED) - Larson might be on the verge of a career year in 2018 after a great 2017 that ended in disappointment.
Kevin Harvick (LOCKED) - "Happy" should once again be a title contender in 2018.
Brad Keselowski (LOCKED) - I don't think the playoffs is a worry for BK, but unless his Ford vs the others is just a smoke screen, he may struggle some to be a front runner week to week.
Denny Hamlin (LOCKED) - Hamlin is pretty much locked in for 2-3 wins, 12-15 top fives, and 18-22 top tens.
Jimmie Johnson (LOCKED) - It may have looked like he lost a step last year, but JJ is the lone vet left at HMS and should show the young kids how to make the playoffs with ease.
Chase Elliott (LOCKED) - Once he gets his first win the wins will start rolling. With vets like Gordon, Stewart, Biffle, Edwards, Earnhardt Jr, and Kenseth all gone, someone will step in and start winning a bunch of races. My guess, its Elliott and Larson until the guys like Jones, Byron, and Blaney get fully groomed in.
Joey Logano (LOCKED) - JoLo should bounce back in 2018. He should get back to 1-3 wins, 12-14 top fives, and 18-20 top tens while being way more consistent.
Kurt Busch (GREAT) - Kurts prime years have passed, but the vet continues to get it done. With so many young guns around, Kurt should make the playoffs.
Erik Jones (GOOD) - Jones is where it gets shaky. The only thing separating guys above him is they all have proven they can be consistent. Jones and the below guys can be fast, but will they be consistent enough? I think Jones gets in to the playoffs for the first time this season.
Ryan Blaney (OK) - Blaney was fast last season, but lacked consistency. In the playoffs the No. 21 team started pulling it together though. Now he moves to the No. 12 third Penske car, will Penske continue to thrive with three cars again?
Clint Bowyer (OK) - Bowyer missed out on the playoffs last year, but I think he could point his way in this season.
Alex Bowman (OK) - Bowman showed flashes in 2016 when he filled in for Junior. I think with a full season in a HMS car he will have a nice shot to make the playoffs.
William Byron (OK) - It's never easy for a rookie to jump to Cup and make the playoffs. However, Byron has hurdled every challenge thus far so he has a shot to do it again.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr (OK) - The 16th spot is tough. Ricky has shown he is a pro at superspeedways and now Junior is gone. He also has shown some real speed at some short tracks. However, to get in he will have to continue that because RFR hasn't shown enough on 1.5's to compete there.

The top 16 seems to be a "safe bet" list. Behind the Wall will take a look at some underdogs who could make a splash in this years 16 car Chase field.

Kasey Kahne - Out of everyone left out, I have the most confidence in Kahne crashing the playoff party. My biggest concern is that a fresh start isn't what he needed and LFR won't be able to bring good enough cars week to week.
Austin Dillon - AD made it into the playoffs last year, but I really thought he was going to make a bigger jump from 2016 to 2017. It was a sole win that helped get him in, can he become more consistent in 2018?
Paul Menard - Menard left RCR and gets new life with Wood Brothers. He should put up some consistent numbers, but I am not sure it will be enough to point his way in. But, maybe it will since the series has had a huge youth movement later which means some inconsistent young guns.
Jamie McMurray - Is this the year he finally comes up short of pointing his way in?

2018 Random Predictions
Image result for 2017 nascar

Who Win's the 2018 Rookie of the Year Award?

This year isn't as fun as recent years, but it could still be a fun battle between Bubba Wallace and William Byron. Both get the new Camaro in 2018, but Byron has HMS backing and Wallace gets RPM (who is switching manufacturer's). Ill take Byron this season as ROTY.

Biggest Surprise in 2018?

I guess Chase Elliott winning multiple races... I mean, that shouldn't really be a surprise to most, but then again maybe it is since he has been picking up "haters" because of his rabid fan base. Once he wins, they should poor in especially with so many veterans leaving the sport. I also think Kyle Larson matches and might end up with more wins then he did in 2017 (4).

Biggest Disappointment in 2018?

To be honest, with so much uncertainty and new blood entering the Cup level, I don't see a ton of "disappointments" in 2018. The rookie class typically brings a lot of inconsistent finishes meaning most veterans should be able to rattle off some quality finishes week to week. That said, I will settle on Jamie McMurray not making the playoffs after pointing his way in the last two seasons.

Who is the next young gun to visit Victory Lane for the first time?

The young gun list includes Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Darrell Wallace Jr, and Ty Dillon. So, who wins first? The easy answer and the one I am going with is Chase Elliott. In fact, I am taking Chase for multiple wins before the next young gun gets their first. However, many of these guys will have a shot at some point in 2018 and I would see one or two not named Chase possibly winning one.

A Young Gun Win's Pocono

Pocono has been quite the wild card races lately (Buescher's rain win and Blaneys first career win). On top of that, last year rookies Erik Jones and Danial Suarez ran very well in both Pocono stops. To add more, Kyle Larson has come close to winning at Pocono but just couldn't finish it off. Wait, even more? Chase Elliot has three top tens in his four races here. So, I think a guy from the group of Elliott, Jones, Larson, or Suarez wins at least one of the Pocono stops in 2018.

The Roval is a big success

NASCAR will introduce the Charlotte Roval this season in the playoffs. Now, I wanted a true road course with more elevation changes to be introduced to the playoffs, but I am willing to give this a shot. Charlotte, even with all its tradition, needed a change and NASCAR went big on it's gamble. I think with the unpredictability of the first race on the roval, it will be a hit with the fans in year one. I, for one, am excited to see it play out.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

2018 NASCAR Paint Scheme's

By Richard Tix

A season long updating page, I will be keeping track of most of the 2018 paint schemes. If you see a favorite of yours missing let me know and I will add it! You can let me know on NASCAR Behind the Wall or on Twitter: @NASCARBTW. Want to take a look back?

#1 Jamie McMurray